Let’s discuss the 2023 Recession, how the Federal Reserve might be able to perform a Soft Landing, what this means for home prices, and how the IRS may be changing – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan | GET MY WEEKLY EMAIL MARKET NEWSLETTER: http://grahamstephan.com/newsletter
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THE 2023 RECESSION:
As The Boston Globe Pointed Out, throughout the last 6 recessions that have been confirmed…there is an AVERAGE LAG TIME of 7.3 MONTHS between the time a recession takes place – and the time it’s actually announced. in the 44 years they’ve been operating, they have never ONCE had to rescind or change their declaration – which means, they’re extremely accurate – and as a result, the process takes almost a YEAR to compile. That’s why: we only know about it…when it’s already over.
THE HOUSING MARKET:
Just recently, Goldman Sachs shared their thoughts that 4 US Cities could see a “2008-style housing crash” throughout 2023. As they say: San Jose, Austin, Phoenix, and San Diego “will likely see peak-to-trough declines of more than 25%….such declines would rival those seen around the country around a decade-and-a-half ago” – SIMPLY because: those were the areas which already saw some of THE MOST growth since 2020.
Obviously, that kind of price growth is completely unsustainable – and, with interest rates going up – we’re bound to see a rather substantial drop throughout some of the hottest markets. In fact, Goldman Sachs says that “Home prices are believed to have peaked in June of 2022,” which means – on a NATIONAL basis…we could see a decline of 10%, before growth begins to recover in 2024. On top of that, Morgan Stanley anticipates a 4% drop from stagnant demand, Wells Fargo seeing declines of 5.5%, and Interactive Brokers calling for more than 20%.
CONTROLLING RENTAL PRICES:
The White House just introduced: “The Renters Bill of Rights.”
Under this, The Federal Housing Finance Agency would examine limits on rent increases, and prevent tenants from being unfairly denied access to housing. In addition to that, lawmakers have called on the FTC to issue new regulations on excessive rent increases, enforce actions against price-gouging, and limit rent charged with properties that are financed with government backed mortgages.
However – unfortunately, studies have found that rent control does NOT help with housing affordability. In fact, a 1992 poll of the American Economic Association found that 93% of its members agreed that “a ceiling on rents reduces the quality and quantity of housing.”
On top of that, a Stanford study has argued that Rent Control actually has an ADVERSE affect on prices for renters and actually works AGAINST making housing more affordable.
-Rent controlled tenants were 20% more likely to stay in their unit.
-Renters were more likely to move elsewhere if they didn’t have the incentive of having their rent capped where they currently were living
-Landlords of rent controlled buildings were more likely to convert their buildings in such a way that it wasn’t rent controlled, reducing the amount of housing by 15%
-The loss of available housing drove up prices of rental units. It was found that a 6% decrease in housing supply led to a 7% increase in rental prices.
THE STOCK MARKET:
Michael Burry posted a rather ominous chart of the 2001 Dot Com bubble, showing that – the prior rebound was eerily similar to what we’re seeing today…before dropping another 30%…and, even though ANYTHING is possible, my guess is that we’re largely going to look to the FED throughout these next few months to determine whether or not the worst is behind us.
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Hey everyone! This year, all videos will have a link containing the source material for each piece of research that’s cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as i can, and the additional resources should help for anyone who wants to look into them further – enjoy! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pvOECGFlegSwHe6m5YpRL20bFR6LmYj6PkFhZ77AZxA/edit?usp=sharing
Appreciate you citing your sources. Good work Graham
Just remember, this is the same guy who pushed his followers to use FTX. That’s the guy you’re watching for financial advise.
@Neeby if you’re watching this for financial advice, you’re doing it wrong. This is just information, nicely researched and presented, no advice at all.
I hate what’s up graham it’s guys here 😅😊
.Major indexes booked their worst yearly performance since 2008 thanks to drivers like the recession, war, hiked interest rate and inflation which so far doesn’t seem to be easing off, so I’m left wondering what 2023 has in store for us investors, I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy or do I wait?
This is still a window-shopping maket. But there are a lot of intriguing stocks to watch from a variety of sectors. You don’t have to act on every forecast, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advsor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
.When it comes to investing in stocks, one of the biggest mistakes investors can make is throw in the towel right when we hit a bear market bottom and the indexes find support and start to surge. I’ve been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly cause I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I nettd over $220K during this dip, that made it clear there’s more to the market that we avg joes don’t know.
@Krish Acharya I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging. who’s the person guiding you?.
I just looked up the broker you suggested on Google and I’m incredibly impressed with her credentials, so thank you for sharing. I’m going to send her an email right away
Put that money in cd’s till the prices drop . The housing prices will definitely drop guaranteed
“What’s up Graham, its Guys here….”
👌❤
Can’t find a real comment to save my life 😅
Ahhhhhggghgg toooo many bots!!!!!
Dude it is far from over!!! Just stop!!
BULLTRAP
Graham: Mentions Chipolte
Jaspreet Singh of Minority Mindset: Gives Graham the Evil Eye
As far as mentioning or showing crimes on TikTok or YouTube, I’ve got two words to say:
SUPERCHARGED AUTOMATIC
With 35% income taxes, it’s going to be so much expensive to live in the USA than Canada. I’m going back to Canada 🤑.
Is there a mass spam bot remover?
I’ll report the 800 comments to the left, and you report the 800 comments to the right.
Dude fr…i used to love watching his videos and reading the comments to see discourse. Literally impossible now
Inflation / fed / cut it out … we are still going to lows on the S+P …. the fed doesn’t want money flow until mid-late 2024 but hey if they cancel it im with it
Profit recession around the corner
What’s up Graham it’s guys here???
The last part! If you’re not wealthy the consumption tax is great FOR THE PEOPLE which is majority America. It’s only bad for rich people bc that limits their spending. IRS WORKS FOR THE ELITES!!! Ofcourse they’re going to want to limit your Ferrari purchase Graham LOL
If you took away income tax and made consumption tax, that’s better for the rich. With no income tax, they have far more capital to invest and only widen the wealth gap. From there, they can afford the consumption tax on any car they want. With that said, good luck on the average person laying 30% tax on a Honda Accord or something
Is that a sports car in your dining room?
It’s a Ford GT. He made a video talking about how he bought it because it holds its value pretty well. So far, the car is up in value from when he bought it
@OJ Simpson nice I missed the video. I was wondering what it was.
Guarantee that rent control will only affect single owners not investment firms
They only want us to hear it when it works in their favor, which is probably already happening.
Lol “burrito season”
screw rent control.
This comment section appears to be full of bots.
Yeah I just press recent comments
Rent control is garbage – plain and simple. Rents go hand and hand with home prices, the economy and inflation. What is with all the bot comments? Anyway to counter it?
Chance of no recession? Just the idea we need to suck in retail before the real crash 💥
The recession is not cancelled.
Wtf is up with your comments
Bots eveywhere fml
makes ya wonder doesn’t it
BS were in a depression and the great great fiat money reset. Living on credit cards debt slaves. Jesus help us ❤❤❤❤!
Lol you are a scammer graham
We are In a recession!
I love your content but still upset with the FTX stuff mate. I learnt I should not buy things you talk about. I am subscribed again but with caution
Clown
Your hand moves are so cute
There’s a burrito season? ☺️
Graham’s analysis/opinion on rent controls is right on the mark. Could not have said better. Also, if you want to solve affordability, do it through changes in zoning and what can be built. Requielre smaller lots and smaller housing units instead of McMansions.
Usually during this time of the year, we get to see certain stocks go up in the market, but that’s very unlikely this season cos of the recession and overall economic crisis, issue is I’ve been holding a lot of stocks hoping to sell for profit this month but I’m not sure if to keep holding or sell, I’ve been running at a loss since Q2 and 2023 is really not looking favorable for investors
The market hasn’t been looking good since COVID, and it will get worse 2023, you should sell
@Anthony Russell The market will continue to fall, so I recommend you conduct critical analysis on the companies you own and their data projections for the next few years. Even better, you could have an investment adviser help you restructure your overall portfolio and offset the bad apples you’re holding; that strategy has been working for me so far, saving me a lot of stress and anxiety, and it’s also very time efficient
@Lloyd Bernard I’ve honestly been considering going the route of an advisor, this current market is no jokes for the average retail investor, but do these advisors really make any notable changes to a portfolio or am I better off on my own.
@Louisa Irvin Unless you intend to buy and hold stocks for a decade, which I don’t see why you wouldn’t, I’ve been investing closely with an investment adviser for the past two years and I’ve pulled over $850K in net gains, and I’m not concerned about where we’re headed this year because I know I’m in good hands
@Rose Roland This is why being informed pays off. I see any market condition as an opportunity, so far i just DCA. I will still be in profits even though i decide to sell today as my average is way lower. Credit to my Financial Advisor ‘JILL MARIE CAROLL” . I don’t pay attention to the day to day movements & Returns have been good. Not retiring any time soon so who cares what happens today?>
Ftx
I’m 18 and I don’t want to work a 9-5 my whole life what do I do
Work
“What’s up Graham, it’s guys here!”
what’s up guys it’s graham here and all my undershirts are dirty
Why are you pretending we aren’t currently in a recession?
“whats up Graham, it’s guys here!” That is totally how I speak all the time! My wife has just gotten used to it! haha.
Funny
When the news report positives, it will usually go the opposite. Controlled Media.
National rent control how about national tax control
Getting old same old crap
Rent control = Government control!!!
Umm 🤔 Did you introduce yourself as “guys” ?
Lol this guy went the whole 2022 fear mongering recession
This will lead to more short term rentals aka air B&Bs! So less unirse because why not make more with short term rentals if you own a place you rent.
Your channel is literally packed full of bots
I suspect Graham has been told to make silly positive videos like this to keep out of FTX trouble.
That explains the nonsense being spread by bots.
Great content as always
Whats up graham its guys here?
Bunch of bots ong
its like 90% of comments are bots, i see the exact same comments on alot of these financial channels. its freaking scary
recession is coming.
OK Gram, love your stuff, they changed the definition of ressesion so the administration doesn’t look as bad. The is that is this Orwellian crap that has been going 9n as of late.
you have to be the biggest click baiter of all time which is very impressive
Do a video on the N.E.S.E.R.A. and the Quantum Financial system. These will replace the current system.
Why do you always say “what’s up Gram, it’s guys here!?”
Bettn on the drop
Recession is pushed by over-spending by Uncle Joe and his crew, just like Obama! It was not like that during the trump regime, every sector of the economy is starting to falter, and the population is having to cope with the highest cost of living in nearly four decades. My question is where should we put our investment money now to better prepare for the future and a liquidity crisis? I have $102,000 to grow
Good question the U.S. economy is falling apart at a frightening pace what steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative tightening? I have $60k i want to transfer into an s&s isa but its hard to bite the bullet and do it.
@thelastunicorn1987 i have no Advisør at all and this recent dip which i feel was triggered by war resulting to inflation and so many other factors hit my portfolio so hard. who would you recommend i seek out for in times like this?
This guy is full of BS watch the whole video no decisions what so ever, you really want to know what the stock market doing watch Warren Buffett and Charlie
I agree that Rent Control is a band-aid but there are in fact enough buildings to place people in, especially California.
We’re in a recession
If I call a chicken sandwich, a bacon sandwich, by Washington’s definition I now have a chicken bacon sandwich. Instead of just calling it what it was to begin with. FOWL.
Plot twist. Recession came and went.
besides layoffs, recession is somewhat tolerable
Do you think it’s a bad time or good time to get into real estate for new realtors?
If your buying houses anywhere but California and New York yeah good idea
Anyone ever hear of Rome yea that is USA now
When FED stop hiking the rates… after few months they low down the rates and then after month or more or less markets start to go down after lowing rates straight the line down. Everyone can check it in charts (interest rate + s&p500)
Death taxes and consumption taxes is what we’ve needed for a long time. Our system is an outdated nightmare
Thank you for finally quiting the click bait. It was always informative, but this “no bs” is far more interesting.
“Whats up graham it’s guys here” 😂
Nobody’s gonna mention how he said “what’s up graham! it’s guys here.” 0:00
Fact is Biden Adminstration is trying all they can to get recession but fact is it’s not coming in 😂
No recession? Inflation has collapsed my life
Not in California, just got a gas bill of $700
Rent control. I like in theory…. But will it hold….. seriously doubt it. If it will force morons who buy up houses to rent and force them to sell. Then I’m all for it. Ending income tax? That’s rich coming from a state that has tax on everything.
This country is a joke and chipotle is not the answer plain and simple the times the status quo everything about today’s world is just nothing but trash it’s pathetic it’s dumb is lazy it’s annoying it’s bad driving it’s irritating no privacy know this and that no freedom of speech by the way all these things on a sign of enslavement which leads to rebellions anyway is a complete mess out there and one that shouldn’t even be the rich will only get richer the country is a joke just like whatever goofball hacker try to hack this phone but look on the bright side since there won’t be a stimulus check due to the field covid placebo of a show called vaccine at least you can either get down or free bowl of ice cream hopefully or now a burrito pathetic I don’t like spicy foods
Just viewing my neighborhood rn and just by looking at it I can tell we are definitely heading to a recession. More than 75% of my neighbors cars are parked outside during the week. Before, when the economy had a (+) growth, during the week only 20% of their cars were parked. What does that let me know, that their employers are downsizing in work schedule’s & employees. I hope I am wrong and that they are using their vacation days early on in the year 2023. Pray for America, pray for the world.
Is not more than half of the GDP increase in inventory?
Check ur comments…the boys ate crazy
I live in detroit. What does this mean for us?
Didn’t this guy promote ftx
Why are your hands so wavy
THE HANDS! Pleeeeeese make it stop.
The government lies? Ya don’t say
Loved the research on rent control.
Haven’t watched Gram’s videos in a while. Wow this channel has reached its peak years ago. Now it’s declining steeply
Lol don’t believe government data. Do your own research and look at the charts. Technical analysis is the only real data you need to see the truth.
The job market is strong you say? Boy are you delusional
Who cares why is the house in prices are coming down, the fact is is that they are all coming down, not just for cities, if you think that then again you are delusional, the ship is sinking, this recession is turning into a depression, why you were pushing this narrative, I’m not really sure, don’t really care, but your information is crap
We’re just changing definition of stuff, great….we’re so screwed.
🙏🙏🙏 America in trouble. 10 commandments. Wake up America
🫨🫨🫨🫨
Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed’s 2% objective. I’m trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I’m 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.
Now that inflation is at an all-time high, I have money in my bank account that I really want to utilize. Is it acceptable if I looked up the coach you mentioned?
Fake news
Abolishing the IRS and having a flat 30% sales tax is a great idea and easily implementable if done by the federal govt, especially given most people are using electronic payment methods these days.
As for housing – building more won’t do anything other than make everything worse. They’re doing that in Australia and guess what, houses are getting more impossible to afford. Why? Because every time they build more housing or new suburbs, its always marketed as the “best thing ever” and priced according to the neighbouring areas plus a premium because its new and “fancy”, no matter how average it is.
This simply pushes the areas prices up by increasing local property values. Then to make it even worse, they let foreign companies and foreign investors (who aren’t citizens or permanent residents) swoop in and buy it all up for insane prices which continues to push prices up. The only affordable property in Australia is in the countryside away from everything so if you need to work or buy food, good luck.
Oh yeah, all these new developments are always done on the best farmland by increasing council rates (a type of property tax) so much that farmers have no choice but to sell. No farmers means no food but the govt doesn’t care – they only look at the money they’re making via the taxes they get from the development and sales (Stamp Duty, CGT, GST, etc.).
Urban sprawl needs to stop – aside from destroying prime farmland, its abolishing the countryside. Cities are now so sprawled that they’re becoming one. Its assumed that if the current urban sprawl continues in Victoria, Australia, that Kyneton will become a suburb of Melbourne by 2035.
Reminder that sales taxes are regressive
“What’s up Graham it’s guys here!” 🤣😂🤣😂 very glad that was not edited out or corrected😂🤣
great video though for sure thank you
Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
Keep this in the back of your mind. There are good days and bad days. It’s a zero-sum game, but keep this advice in mind: spend wisely, invest wisely, and diversify your holdings so that when one performs poorly, the others do as well. This can be accomplished by hiring a knowledgeable specialist whose platform provides a wide range of investment options. By doing so, you leave little room for regrets and may even gain more.
With the assistance of an investment advisor, I was able to diversify my $401k portfolio across multiple markets, earning over $980k in net profit from high dividend yielding stocks, ETFs, and bonds in just a few short months.
My Financial adviser is ‘’Margaret Johnson Arndt’ she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find her handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.