Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, discusses falling U.K. house prices and the outlook for 2025.
UK housing market is slowing down, says analyst
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Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, discusses falling U.K. house prices and the outlook for 2025.
It’s almost as if people can’t afford to buy houses.
The UK housing market is done, there will be a crash that ruins a generation. No one can afford to buy them so demand has flatlined, and if there’s a recession no one has realized how severe the impact will be. It’s another 2008 moment but everyone has less savings and credit to rely on
The younger generation also carry a huge student loan burden, leaving uni with no jobs!
No chance, we’ll never hit the housing targets labour have promised and immigration will remain high for a long time. Prices may stagnate but won’t drop.
@@williamkeane255 Part of the issue that made the 2008 recession so bad is that the collateralized debt obligations hid the risk posed on mortgages, and when the economy eventually went into recession millions more people across the US and UK defaulted than expected.
Isolating that down to the UK, if there’s a major recession in the next 5 years most UK consumers will have no savings to cover job loss and many are already in debt after the cost of living crisis. Housing is now 50% more expensive than in 2008, and real incomes taking into account inflation have not grown. This is a HUGE risk for the UK economy, it means the average person cannot afford to lose their job and maintain their house..
@@mal7175 2008 was different, investment banks played fast and loose with CDOs and incentivised retail banking and brokers to go nuts writing loans. There was very little due diligence on loans, the LTV rate were super low too, I remember 105% mortgages being offered at the time.
Post brexit we’re in a state of managed decline. Weirdly I think Liz trus was on the right track by cutting taxes to incentivised investment and growth in the private sector. Unfortunately for her our economy was so fragile the markets got spooked.
The only thing propping housing and our gdp up is immigration. But if you look at gdp per capital we’re becoming poorer.
Do they factor Trump crashing American economy and stock market crash? Is it winners curse time , will the 18.6 years cycle happen ?
People losing jobs is enough for the market to crash on its own
How is the UK job market doing?
I can hear only budget cutdowns, replacement by AI, and holding headcount increases at the moment.
He sounds like ‘the calm voice of reason’, but the last person I would believe concerning the future of the housing market would be someone involved in selling houses. We are in an incredibly unstable situation. Large amounts of housing is now owned by individual private landlords, who let on short term basis or do so as holiday lets. Those homes are speculative capital assets for retirement or as ‘the bank of mum and dad’ to raise cash for future kids homes / education / care costs etc. As soon as the market begins heading down, these will be sold as depreciating assets, speeding the decline even further. This won’t be triggered by mortgage interest tax relief or the interest rate directly, these things will be triggered by recession and unemployment. If you want to know where property prices are going, you need to look at the stats for number of jobs on offer, followed a few months later by unemployment numbers.
AI will destroy home vales once more jobs go