#housingbubble #Realestatemarket #RobertShiller
Yale Sterling Professor and Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller joined Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro and Seana Smith to discuss the housing market and real estate prices.
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No housing bubble people they won’t make the same mistake this fast that’s why Interest rates are low as soon as people start Foreclosing they will be sold almost instantly and rates will go cheaper too
Are you sure?😂
*Cream Ridge, NJ Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Blanket NY/NJ/CT*
@Coolio last time it bubbled, there wasn’t as much buyers and as powerful I think inflation is the boss here not only research and I didn’t do a study on this, just from past experience. I can be wrong.
*Clearwater Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 29% YOY Demand For Vacation And Retirement Property Plummets*
Bot “responding” to bot. Lmao
It’s not a bubble when the news says it’s a bubble
Biden just added a tariff on Canadian lumbers. lolololol I guess don’t worry
There’s no bubble. Young working people will just never afford houses. If you want a house, have rich parents. Thanks Jay Powell….. Success!
Thats what we thought in 07
@arturo raygoza they didnt print in 2007. Its inflation
@Om A what does that have to do with my point?
Boomers screwed everything up
im rich now
Sky is falling!
No. There is no bubble. This was a pandemic created rise (supply-demand) NOT an economic downturn (aka BUSH struck a 2nd time). We are already too paranoid, don’t help them!
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I am surprised that no one is mentioning zoning as an issue in places where there is no more room to expand like in the Bay Area, New York and Los Angeles.
You Americans don’t get the right to complain, we have a city made up of crackheads thats more expensive then NYC, LA, etc.
Legit, look up Hamilton Ontario, its the third most expensive real estate in North America. Your prices are cheap AF.
@Don M I don’t know what is the case with Hamilton, but in Canada single family home zoning is also prevalent. Looking at the satellite map most of Hamilton is also single family homes. It has sufficient space and road infrastructure to expand. Its proximity to Toronto may be the reason why the market is bet up.
In a hot property market if you don’t see lots of development there is something stopping it. Usually some government bullshit. For example in less developed and corrupt countries the capital intensive road, water and electricity infrastructure is slow to grow when the market requires it.
@Don M so who is buying them if the prices are over the roof? Maybe wages are higher in ONtario?
@noemi noemi people who have bought prior, they all got mad equity to bump up prices, houses make more money then they do.
What are we supposed to do? We’re screwed if we buy now and if we don’t buy now, we get hammered by skyrocketing rental prices and awful landlords.
Buy a piece of land built a 3D printing house is a lot cheaper
To be grim…there is a lack of discussion around dying Boomers, and too much talk about aging in place. You don’t age in place when you are dead. The oldest Boomers will hit the average age of death within the next 5 years. We’ll see how well aging in place plays out when father time comes knocking and Gen Yers and Millennials realize that this “Generational Wealth” is just a fantasy when you account for all the money you need to scrounge up to afford dying in this country.
Not all landlords are awful. Just rent if you can’t afford to buy. Years in the future boomers will die off and many developed countries have zero population growth.
Rent until you are ready, but try saving up as fast as you can. (With emergency fund). 😉
@Eddie Hui good idea! Now to factor in power water heat septic appliances furnace air conditioner etc etc and by the way there’s only a few 3d printed houses in Europe so you must of lucked out and got one
@Be True To Yourself saving for what? All that money is just going to devalue and lose value the longer it sits around buy buy buy or miss out now
✅
R/superstonk
The end is near
🔔 🔔
This guys logic was all over the place
They will go negative first. They serve the 1% and screw you and your family.
Criminals, QE is the forever bull run in their eyes. Never a downturn again
Dangerous tools in the hands of fools
More tariffs on canadian lumber just passed so…. America first!!
We send it to you and you sell it back to us same with oil .The mills make the money no one else .
How is that good for America
*Santa Ana, CA Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Orange County Housing Prices Drop Like A Rock*
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He didn’t even answer the questions lol
He NEVER has same thing when asked about the Housing Bubble back in 2007 all you get is song and dance from Mr. Shill.
I will buy and buy…buy high, sell higher. It doesn’t matter when u buy. It matters when u sell, ok.
It’s not bubble. Went to lowes today. Prices at register 15-25% more than price on selves. House price can’t come down
Ah ahhha ahhhaaaaa
the bubble is all over the world (Africa, Asia, Europe, America).
Virtuous people who have made money want to buy something other than corporate shares.
with Platforms (such as Zillow) it’s easy ans fait to identify market “anomalies.
” There is a “rush” to “the market anomalies”.
This is coming to an end in 2022, the acceleration of price increases is …decreasing in areas where there are no “price anomalies”.
There is no shortage, people & banks are greedy. They refuse to sell because the land is more valuable. Biden will introduce a “empty house tax” by years end. There needs to be a national rezoning. Too many strip malls are being built for long-term rental incomes.
_______” Is a Housing Bubble on the Horizon ?”????—–We are ALREADY in a Housing Bubble and have been FOR YEARS. This Bubble would have ALREADY gone POP but the Gubment came in and made it ILLEGAL to remove the…20%…of “home owners” who are not paying for “their homes” (and many have no been paying for OVER A YEAR NOW!) This is now coming to an end and these RECORD HIGH BUBBLE Housing prices are heading down down Down and back to REALITY.
_____”The Cure for High Prices. is High Prices !”—Federal Reserve Conf. Board Data just showed the BIGGEST DROP IN HISTORY for Americans thinking of buying a house!!! (This of course comes on the heels of 3 Months of falling home sales !) So there Ya go here we sit at RECORD HIGH NEVER SEEN BEFORE Home prices and “the Greater fool theory” just ran out of new fools to unload your Bubble priced house on. So its Back down to REALITY and that is a long long Long way down from here buckle up.
Nothing will go down.
If you pour out 10 TRILLION OF DEBT into an economy…
*Soaring Inflation is inevitable*
I agree, it’s plan and simple…nothing is going down. We are probably looking at the end of America before anything changes.
@One Zero I think you’re right. The US is in an irreversible decline. In 20 years the US is going to look a lot like the UK and France where middle class means you can’t afford to own a home .
There is something not right, when bid price is higher then ask.
Robert needs to retire. The guy is so full of it.
Nah this time everyone is on fixed rate, I don’t think it’ll be housing. It’ll be some other fantastic fun. I think housing will get hit when sh*t hits the fan but there are other new problems
And what happens when these yuppies are all laid off when the layoffs start from the lockdowns? Fixed rate isn’t going to help them if they have no job.
@Primping I don’t think it’ll *cause* the next crisis. To your point and mine, yes it’ll still get hit as part of the larger macro economy.
I agree the dollar will go boom when buden steps down and harris steps in just as predicted in the Simpsons
probably the GME situation with the largest hedge funds in america shorting themselves out of oblivion
It’s funny to blame people to have irrational exuberance when all they are doing is responding to low interest rates and excess liquidity. The stock market has CAPE ratios unseen before, and real estate is cheap relative to SP500.
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This guy some kind of elite professor? He didn’t reach any conclusions.
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I prefer him to be honest if he is unsure than to just make up a conclusion.
OVERPOPULATION
We need Chinese one child policy globally
The birth rate in the US ( and most other nations, apart from Africa ) is already below replacement rate, and it’s continuing to fall.
China doesn’t have the 1 child policy as of 2015 bc it didn’t work. This myth of overpopulation is just that…a myth.
We need you to leave the US because we’re bringing in 100s of thousands of refugees and you’re saying Americans shouldn’t reproduce crazy feminist
Only way to reverse housing is mass die off world desperately needs, we should have let people die of covid
A housing tulip 🌷 mania . The developers will make it crash 💥. As long as there is land new houses will be made
*Clearwater Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 30% YOY As Retirement And Vacation Property Market Turns Toxic*
Bot
@Steven Sevieria There you go again. Taking falling housing prices personal.
“Shiller” – sounds about right.
Another you tube vid suggests investing in a house to protect against hyper inflation, who do you believe ?
As long as housing prices continue cratering, who cares?
up next the guy with no answers
“above asking price” = “mortgage bundled with a home equity loan, approved cos the agent gets the biggest commission that way”
Exactly like the bubble of the nils.
Not always an upside-down loan… I don’t have any factual percentages but there are “some-to-many” cash buyers bringing big equity from larger cities and pushing average prices in rural areas. Sometimes by staggering percentages.
If anyone remembers the previous “housing bubble of Greed.”, you could have a household income of $40,000 and qualify to buy a $400,000 home financed with a high interest rate second mortgage as down payment. This fantasy continued until defaults increased beyond the mortgage insurers ability to cover the losses.
I must say this time is completely different! 😎
And this time we have people who have a job today but in a year when the mass lay offs start from the lockdowns and bailout money running out, all these people who purchased homes won’t have jobs. So yes I guess this time will be different but the outcome is many homes will still be in foreclosure.
@Primping I swear theres still something fishy. I never heard of a CDO until they were in default either… there’s something out there we don’t know about yet.
Cal, I wish it was this simple to figure out this market. It’s not. The cash buyers have completely thrown this thing into a crazy loop. Zero interest rates, basically, at the bank means your money sitting there earns nothing. But buying a home cash means rental income. Yet, that’s puzzling too because there’s a shortage of rentals with exorbitant rent hikes.
No crash…No ninja loans…Sorry millennials…Shoulda bought that crappy old fixer-upper years ago instead of blowing your money on high rents in the city…
Excellent point! Also should’ve gotten out of mommy’s basement sooner. Now every millennial wants a house and you’re all in “stab each the other in the back” competition to get one.
@Steven Sevieria They were waiting on their boomer parents to drop dead so they could inherit everything instead of building their own “sweat equity” as previous generations have done…It’s sad because even in 5 years when prices level off, a starter home will still cost $400k-$500k minimum…
If they would exempt capital gains you could increase supply. Capital Gains is the only reason I am not selling.
You are not the market
@K K what does that even mean?
The current prices are insane
I’ve been in mortgage since 2005. Wanna know when the market cools down? When inventory catches up to demand, if interest rates rise fast in the coming months or if people start refusing to pay these stupid prices and homes start to sit on the market.
To people thinking rising home prices cannot go on forever i’d recommend you look at California, Europe, Canada, and Australia where prices have been consistently going up for like 50 years.
you may be in some pain for 10 years or so if you buy at the peak, just like in 2007…
Southern California real estate prices fell precipitously in the early 90s following mass layoffs in Aerospace after the Cold War, and did the same in 2007-2010 in the GFC. Prices are up over the long term but it is not correct that they have gone up consistently. Those trough markets were severe. Short and relatively quick to recover, but painful if you had to sell in them.
Yes and the stock market historically has a “positive” return, but that doesn’t mean dips don’t take place. This housing market will yield and will go down at some point.
Yup yup yup cost of building will go up and up
Dealing with wife’s emotions right now. Both wife and realtor are nagging me to bid higher and higher. And we bid +$150K over listing price and still getting outbid🤦♂️
That’s nothing, I heard a buyer offered to pay for the sellers new home!
My friend has offered more than 100k on 3 houses and lost bid on all 3. This is in Canada bdw.
@Sandeep Sharma Thanks for the info. I had no clue that Canada was experiencing the same madness. This is a sellers once in a lifetime market. I think the more rational thing to do is wait till there is more Inventory and no more bidding wars.
Whatever city are you in?
@Abraham’s Seed Los Angeles
Just wasted 5 mins of my life. 😖
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Affordability is the key of the market.
A 1% increase in mortgage rate will decrease buyers buying power by 11%, might want to sell your house now before the rates start climbing.
That’s a little exaggerated but close
There is another housing bubble but the correction will be a fraction of the size of 07. The 07 bubble has been brewing from 01 and hit the clueless banks like a black swan. The bubble in 2021 is still only 8 months in and people are already alerted and cautious. This anticipated bubble is so predictable it will auto correct without a crash. Remember, all crashes are black swans. A white swan crash is an oxymoron.
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Being a Nobel prize winner used to mean something but when they gave Obama a trophy I figure anyone with a pulse can get one.
How do we hedge housing risk?
Good question. Possibly land?
Buy for the long term but if you have to sell in 5-10 years you will lose your shirt. Over paying for a house is a big mistake. The value drops and you are in a mess. What if you lose your job can you still make the payments. Debt is a cruel teacher. Save up your down payment. Only buy if you are staying long term.
Why buy a house when prices are falling?
O man, I almost didn’t recognize him.
FOMO never good
It’s a bubble
I really like Dr. Shiller, been watching his inteviews for 15+ years, but the man is always wishy washy with his answers, which is actually the smart way to answer questions about the future.
Hahaha…
Remember folks… current asking prices of resale housing is 350% higher than long term trend and double construction costs.
Now prices are falling.
D, O, N, T ,,,, F, O, R, G, E, T ,,,, T, O ,,,, S, U, B, S, C, R, I, B, E
W, H, A, T, S, A, P, P ,,,, M, E ,,,,, F, O, R ,,,,, G, U, I, D, E, L, I , N, E, S ,,,,, A, N, D ,,,,, I, N, V, E, S, T, M, E, N, T
(+) (1) (8) (4) (8) (4) (8) (2) (4) (0) (4) (6) ..•••%••
Guest sounds like he had a few drinks before his interview.
do u know who that is
They should of asked if “What if Fed has to raise rates due to inflation?”
They will
@Eric the guy they won’t, economy is to fragile. Home prices are based on demand and supply and that will equalize but interest rates are to guide the economy so for now, no major hikes, just small ones that they believe won’t affect economy. Nothing major will play out till at least 2022 or 23 so anyone expecting a housing crash will be sorely disappointed. Price drops are not a crash, merely people selling just keep hoping to downprice to a better location away from condos and dense population.
The Fed can’t raise rates because of the massive federal debt would no longer be serviceable. Unfortunately, for everyone, the Fed also won’t be able to hold rates down forever. The Fed overplayed it’s hand and allowed federal borrowing to run unchecked because of political pressure.
@OldCountryman They will keep trying like the sneaky tapering in the Repo market now and then they might try Yield Curve Control if not doing it already.
@OldCountryman yup and people forget, the FED is made up of people who also have an interest in not depreciating their own assets.
fall enough to Cause some pain.., IS THIS A BUBBLE!! haha 😂 Wtf is with these questions
Look how long that incline is hahaha ots definitely gonna fall
This guy is terrible at providing answers to anything.
Is another housing bubble on the horizon? As if we are not already in one? Crook bastard puppets!
*Denver, CO Housing Prices Crater 12% As Years Of Subprime Mortgage Lending Surfaces*
I keep seeing these type of comments yet prices keep increasing…when you people make these comments what are you talking about? The market will crash some point for this area at that percentage??
@Curtis Rowell What is it about falling housing prices that troubles you?
So boomers said screw history lol
Ask him about housing and he starts lecturing on Bitcoin🤣
Because of the wealth effect
Buyers were more comfortable looking at houses during the virus than sellers were with selling their house. That is unwinding now that people are being vaccinated. Sellers are coming back, especially as prices are soaring. Real estate agents have told me they are starting to get more calls from sellers and the ratio is shifting. That 2 month supply could become 6 months really quickly. The speed in which this could shift may even surprise Schiller. I think end 2021/ early 2022. When prices stall far more sellers will enter the market and when prices go down buyers will head to the sidelines to see how far down it goes. This is without anything happening to low mortgage rates or foreclosures. If rates go up or foreclosures start then it will go down worse.
When lumber prices fall, what happens to appraisals?
This guy doesn’t make any sense I forgot he’s just like Joe Biden he is in cognitive decline.
meanwhile Trump can’t read.
Just wait until gas prices blow up over the next 6 months and hit $6 a gallon in California. People will have more concerns than the housing market then. He’s right about the momentum in the futures market.
It’s starting to happen. My brother lives around the Turlock area and gas at some places are already at $5/gal. Studio apartments are going for over $1,000/month. Then the cost of goods are outrageous. Shits going to hit the fan.
If waiting is all you do, then you’ll die waiting.
The best “market sentiment “ is shippers horrible track record. No housing bubble.
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Bad speaker
I just sold my house in Los Angeles for $550K. On the same week I sold it, Zillow listed another house in the same community and same size as mine for $50K above what I just sold for… I feel extremely stupid now. But who can tel where the top is? How can this be sustainable?
Maybe the other house had more upgrades/renovations? Single story vs multistory? Buyers had more contingencies? $50K difference can easily happen in LA so dont feel too bad
There is no way you owned a home in LA for $550k 🤣
@Alex The kitchen in the other house was remodeled. But my house had more upgrades. Owner of that house sold the house directly to Zillow for $550K. Zillow put it right back on the market for $600K.
@Camila Martinez Not exactly. You can find plenty of houses around $500k in south LA such as Inglewood. My house was in the city of Hawthorne. I am not allow to post a link here but you can go to my channel if you like. I did a whole video talking about the whole process.
*Phoenix, AZ Housing Prices Crater 16% On Soaring Inventory And Plunging Demand*
A house my mom was looking at went for $120k over the asking price. Those buyers will surely regret that a few years down the line.
Crazy! Where was it?
If this pattern is the only basis then, it’s not completely yet 2003
There has been major differences between consumers back then and now majority
I’m single and this market scares me. If you’re interested, and not rich I found deeded RV lots to be an affordable way to own a home. I purchased a lot in Colorado near Buena Vista at Chateau Chaparral. Now I’m debt free. Since I work remotely I don’t have a commute and I spend my free time hiking, kayaking and fly fishing. There are two great towns nearby and world class skiing. This of course isn’t the only place there are way less expensive places to buy a deeded RV lot but for me, with all the amazing outdoor activities, this place is debt free heaven!
Not a bad idea but with the way lot prices are tanking, it’s much too early yet.
*Denver, CO Housing Prices Crater 12% As Lot Prices Plummet*
Wouldn’t surprise me at all. Interest rates have been so low for so long that corporations and other businesses have been able to pile on huge amounts of debt. Many people are in over their heads, including all those that have a year or so of back rent / mortgage payments to make.
Why is it 2003 and not 2005 or 2006?
Cause they won’t dream of raising rates right now and too much enthusiasm.
@Hydross : Housing prices are cratering irrespective of rates.
The freaking new Toyota 86GR is $10 to 15k more than what it was 2 years ago…where on earth did we all get $10k raise in the past 2 years? Fck all I got was a 7 % salary raise combined on the past 3 years… That is a robbery Toyota
Toyota slashed the price of Corollas and Camrys by 11% last week.
Canada been climbing for a long time…
Is there another housing bubble? If you have to ask that question, you must have been living in a cave for at least the past few years.
There’s been, it seems, an endless supply of Rich Folks with Cash (cash buyers even), that have been scooping up all the limited inventory. But in the last week or so, some realtors are beginning to offer us a chance to make an offer for 20% down etc… Lots of folks don’t know that the best properties, or the best deals, have often been unreachable for folks with minimum down pmt because of Cash offers that make the appraisal a non issue.
All housing transactions are cash offers…. borrowed cash. And you’re right. Appraisal fraud is a huge issue this time.
Oh god yes. The entire economy is in a bubble.
*Chevy Chase, MD Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Northern Virginia/Washington DC Housing Market Tanks*
This dude is a professor at Yale? Sounds like a professor at University of Phoenix.
🤣🤣🤣
This dude sounds clueless and aphasic with his thought process. Enough to ignore his analysis 🤭
Simple supply demand supply is at an all time low… Average building Permits are less than half the average. Builders got tired of raising the prices every 2 weeks so now they have given it over to an auction bid platform
market wont correct with everyone waiting. dow will see 40k before it sees 30 again
Fake video
wait till the correction comes along, and they won’t be able to appraise because again they bought a house at an inflated price,
we have ugly houses being priced at 325,000 wake up and smell the coming real estate bubble
OK boomer