#YieldCurve #Market #Bonds #2022
DoubleLine Capital Founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach sits down with Yahoo Finance Live’s Brian Sozzi to discuss 2022 market concerns, the Fed, inflation, interest rates, the yield curve, and the Consumer Price Index for urban consumers.
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I wish I knew what all this means lol
Basically when the yield curve goes down rates go up, vice versa. When yield is flat it means there’s a recession likely coming. It’s all backed by credible researchers
People are investing less with banks, but thats simply because they are doing it on decentralised platforms now and some are almost bigger than banks
@Funez – only they base it on known economics, we are dealing with the biggest growth in defi and something they cant measure, people are getting huge yield on defi
@angry brit what’s defi?
The fed has been manipulating the market and with the current rate of inflation, yields (money made off lending/investing in bonds) is negative in real terms. This is why the stock market is going bananas, if I told you that you should lend me 1000 dollars and in a year I’ll give you 1025 dollars but those dollars are really worth 900 dollars in next years purchasing power, would you lend me the money? The market is basically paying people to borrow money, idk about you but that seems a little sus…
Yield curve cant be a signal anymore, too manipulated by the fed
I doubt the numbers support that. It’s the biggest market in the world, the Fed is not in charge.
No recession for another 4-5 years from now
*4-5 months – fixed that for you
I guess the over/under is 2 years? We’ll be heading in that direction the whole time though.
About 10 million baby boomers going to retire and 5-7 million immigrants going up to come to US and I don’t see recession or inflation above 2-3 percent YOY
About 10-12k people retire every day, that’s about 4M people new retirees a year.
About 1M new immigrants arrive every year.
Net is -3M people a year.
Also, about 9k babies born every day, that’s 3M a year.
Daily deaths including covid is about 10-12k/day, which is about 4M.
Net is -1M a year.
Yea, I think there is going to be a worker shortage which will increase the need for automation and efficiency
@Sailus54 Yes. But automation is going to be slow to keep up with the labor shortage. It will get better with time; but planes will not fly themselves soon, trucks will not drive themselves, and nurses will never be automated.
I can’t believe it every year he says the market is gonna crash lol
We already had the induced crash dut to covid. Otherwise it would’ve being the apocalypse. Bon’t don’t worry, the economy is doomed, they just kicked the can down the road.
If thats true then he was right in Dec 2018 and Feb 2020
@Johnny Sac I don’t think timing the market is a thing you can do consistently, so I it’s rather very stupid or very brave to do so in public, however the data is there and the yield inverted in 2020 after the fed raised rates begining in 2016.
His thesis is always correct. The issue is there is no way to know what monetary policy will be
He’ll be right one of these years
I sold everything. I’m just keeping cash waiting for a big correction
I guess you can think of it this way: you thought stocks were going up and had your money behind it. You were wrong.
Based on what happened today, you changed your mind. What makes you think you’ll be right this time? Why would you expect 100% chance of whatever your current feeling is?
@Daniel Begonja prices today are not the same as Monday a lot companies are hitting 52 week lows and they can still drop even more, and if that happens I will be a happy buyer because I’m holding CASH, and some of you will probably get margin calls and be forced to sell your precious stocks, because you thought the market couldn’t go any lower and it did. Plus I’ve been investing in the market since 2018 so I’ve seen this before and I can see how everything will play out at the End, that’s why 80% of retail investors never make any money in the market, because you guys are blinded by only thinking about all the money you’re going to make without realizing how much money you guys can lose. I’ve been holding cash for the past 2 weeks and just for the record. Stocks are going to start going up at the end of this month. Save this comment.
You’ve been holding cash for 2 weeks 😂. Investing since 2018 even though we’ve been in a 12 year bull market…
If you’re planning to buy soon, then you’re thinking it’s just a correction, and not a crash.
@Daniel Begonja I never said I was expecting a crash. Just a correction on the indices, and big caps.
Yes keep your $1k lol
no way fed is interested in fighting inflation. maybe looking like they are fighting is what the goal is. Mr. Gundlach has been pretty off target for a while. oil is still 40 percent from all time high
Still waiting for $20k BTC.
Only for main street, check out the crypto defi yield numbers they bigger than some banks already
Politically motivated , he is big fun of MAGA, I stoped listening to this guy , I do prefer Ray Dalio !
we need a great reset let it crash
@SGspecial84 naaaa I didn’t miss out I jumped in doge coin before it was even a penny and in the Tesla splits they have done,it’s deeper then that,American need a great reset
@Juju What good would that do? People wont learn from a crash. America is #1 in marketing and consuming. Thats it.
@SGspecial84 so what’s the alternative?let the debt pile up?Everything is getting expensive
@Juju The alternative is not be a consumer whore. That needs to happen on a national level. A great reset will do nothing but cause temporary pain.
@SGspecial84 you just said the USA is the biggest consumer nothing is going to change its coming though it’s going to happen
“Bond buying has caused yields to go up” Sir if you look at the the chart for yields during the same time as government purchases of bonds, you will notice that yields go down. That is not up for debate.
long overdue.
Biden’s America!
If the market crashes, and it is long overdue, the crash has been building up like a tidal wave for years due to a number of decisions that were made by the Fed, Democrats and Republicans alike.
No worries! Joe Biden is our President. He’s working very hard on the matter, he is the leader we need to get us through all these diffcult moment. He’s basically a genius and healer of nations.
No one knows
The Shadow do.
30 year currently at 2.08. Let’s see if Gundlach is correct.
is this guy still a billionaire? He was wrong last few years.
You’re alwaysa billionaire when your friends give you inside info!
us 30 year yield is 2.095% no magic happened. Feds fund rate is lower, even though the Fed has been buying bonds. Is Mr Gundlach looking at the same charts as me? or does he have proprietary data?
GUNDLACH THE DOOMER CLOWN!!! 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
We need a great schlacking. Spoiled investors of the last 12 years need a whipping, especially the crypto kids.
sounds like someone who missed out.
“shellacking” ha ha. Interesting choice of words. I don’t mind the market going up, or even Bitcoin going to a million. I just get sick of trying to do day to day things, and getting no service, because everybody is at home spending their Biden bucks.
Okay boomer. Someone’s jealous😂
Finally, somebody bashes owner equivalent rent. Dumbest stat ever.
The stock market is 2x the total gdp. People still think the FED is going to save us? It’s gonna crash.
You must use your microscope to see the yield you would have to be in the billions invested just to see the needle move any .your still on the hook for capital gains .so the needle hardly moves at all .
QYLD QYLD QYLD QYLD QYLD QYLD QYLD QYLD QYLD QYLD QYLD QYLD
even if it does drop, which it will eventually but I don’t think this is the big drop, it will most likely drop fast and rise slow so I’ll dollar cost average while it slowly reclaims it’s highs so It’s not even a big deal either way.
Big institutions are killing the middle class since 1988
Please drop 20%
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If he was any good he could make money no matter where is interests rates are. Oh yea he not Italian or Latino. But we should do. I can’t wait Let them all go down. We get great bargains because we don’t borrow. Ha ha
6:51 “…thanks to the meddling by the government…”
By “the government” he means the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury, which is controlled OF COURSE by AFL-CIO, NAACP, and Latinas for Trump.
Collecting dividends.
time to turn to bear gang mode
He makes a great point about rent. I rent out 16 homes, my partner and I manage over 100. Rents are up much more than any metric will indicate, Zillow is off by a mile.
why do you need 16 houses? fking greedy capitalists pay your fair share
He is stuck on his yield curve which mean nothing, the fed can manipulate the yield, he is stuck in the past
Everyone seems to be hyper focused on the 12 month CPI, which is a trailing indicator. What was CPI in 2020? Negative – the oil price was down. Suppose one were to look at the 24 month CPI? It is more in line with the 20 year Treasury bond yield. Isn’t that a more reasonable way to look at the data.
Not if you acknowledge the fact that CPI was deliberately altered in the 90s and again in the 2000s to understate inflation by a considerable margin. To not consider this and simply take the measurement at face value is a garbage in, garbage out analysis.
The curve indicator has been broken and outdated since GFC! It was when the bond market turned into equity market with capital gains on bond prices. I would take his opinion with a pinch of salt.
2.2 billion net worth. i’d take his opinion over yours anyday.
@K L Definitely I see your point about who is speaking. However, I can list a few billionaires who has been singing song of recession for a while.
Recessions come and then go. What’s the big deal? Also, the Fed has the market’s back and therefore it can only go up this year. Pullbacks along the way, but it will end up much higher then where it started
not based on what they said in their recent fed report. once politics becomes involved due to inflation felt by the consumer, it becomes about saving face, which is more important than saving the market.
Let deflation and price discovery happen! Deflation is good! Recessions are natural. Fed is bluffing. They cant even raise rates above zero by a couple 1/4 point hikes? Savings account losing $ to real negative rates. Inflation at 10%. What a sad joke the Fed has become.🤡
Crash the market by 70%
2019~2022
Korea is. ..mymoney..missing..
Korea is. No banking
Korea is No service
New bridge..i need..
Im..dying…help me yahoo
Thankyou sir..
Yield fixing? Can someone elaborate? That’s highly illegal no?
Jeju ibk kdb..No banking…
No service…sos..
Only exit..J.p.morgan seoul please..
For the earth..big gift..
And..i will die…please yahoo…
That comment he made about the middle of the video about each cycle rates ultimately being lower than the last. I think that out for a bit. That’s your mental exercise for the day. We’re either going to be negative or have a Day of reckoning, no clue which one of those comes first
100%
when trump was in office markets were pumping
This is a strong signal to the non ruling elites that the party is over and they better snap out of it, stop yelling at little children for letting their masks drop below their noses, and come to terms with the fact that old people die. So come back from your million dollar third house and get to work.
If inflation keeps going up, then we are heading into stagflation.
this jeffrey repeats old news about china from 4 months ago despite much updated positive information about investing in china..since he completely ignores the facts its done either out of vendetta or sheer ignorance..he should go back to selling bonds and not speak his mind on other subjects
AABB Stock Ended 2021 UP 1,185 % yr..AABBG GOLD-backed Ethereum tech New Global Currency Token/Wallet.
Lol stopped at the good pt
CPI is much higher. They have manipulated it to be much lower.
Most negative yields ever and hold under 2k…
Powell signaled this awhile back so people have time to re-adjust their portfolios.
CPI is rigged, we all know that🤣
Biden did this. Stolen elections have dire consequences.
How about non-US gold or commodity stocks?
I am buying stocks I like like TDOC at huge discount.
Cathie’s stocks are already down like 40-70%
But index still at ATH. Got out myself today. I might regret but I don’t feel safe in stock rn
IN FACT GUNDLACH IS BETTER THAN RAY DALIO IN TERMS OF BONDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Long term treasury yields is inflation+growth. Yields might be negative now but when growth collapse I wouldn’t want to be long equities^^ Disinflation or deflation is not great for most equities. Bonds tend to do just fine in that environment.
Fear mongering. The yields are a miles apart right now.