Zhu Haibin, JPMorgan’s chief China economist, discusses China’s annual parliamentary meeting, the country’s economic policies and its growth outlook.
China’s deflation risk ‘is real,’ JPMorgan economist says
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Yeah, deflation might be real, but why is it a risk? Why is deflation bad when the economy is projected to grow by 5%?
Because you can make GPD by digging holes and filling them.
Deflation is dangerous because once the mindset becomes an entrenched consumer will not spend money.
it ain’t gonna grow 5%.
@@ryanwalters6184 Try digging holes for 50 years like China and see whats happens to your country.
Once deflation sets in, consumers delay purchases out of hope that the prices will go down later, which hurts the economy.
For average chinese citizens, this would mean lower wages and less jobs available.
because deflation leads to an economic death spiral. GDP growth is just a number – if you really WANT that number to go up (why?) you can get there – just increase debt and build infrastructure and houses wherever. It doesn’t mean the economy is healthy. GDP growth is a very bad proxy for that, especially when its a target, not an (independent) observation
deflation is good when most countries are still facing 6% to 100% inflation rate for the last 4 years. too much printing money fuel the world inflation makes life difficult for the poorest countries in the world. even UK is suffering double digit inflation with stagnant wage and its economy is in recession and this expert think Uk is doing better than china. deflation makes goods and services cheaper when everything is going up in the world during and after covid pandemic.
Hahaha that’s a new take: deflation is good. Classic
You are seriously ignorant.
China exports goods to the world. If most countries are in serious inflation. The deflation could benefit the expansion of expoerts.
True, but countries like Mexico, Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc. are competing with China. If China goods became cheaper, billions of people from those countries would suffer tremendously.
if cheap products from china flood the market, it would hurt the domestic manufacturing and consumption, which would lead to downsizing of companies and even closure of some, resulting in job loses then even less domestic consumption… And it is exactly for these reasons that the developed industrial economies would impose tariffs on chinese exports
@@0rbital Not just developed countries. Developing countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, India and Mexico already done so.
Don’t worry about China ! They are working on high value items now w/ unmanned robots — EV Cars ,
Battery Storage Systems , Green energy / Solar energy , High speed trains , Huge Shipbuilding industries ……
You will see another Economy Peak in China in the next 2 – 3 years .
They’ll go through 2-3 lost decades and are done
No way will those sexy hi-tech industries create enough jobs to replace the millions of jobs which were pouring concrete and making cheap consumer goods for the last 30yrs.
@@johnloader8611 looks like the plan is 1bn people making EV cars 😂
@@MD97531As a reference, Japan currently has about 6 million people working in the Cars related industries ….
No. They’re worrying and that’s why they ban
THE CHINESE HAVE SAID THEY DO NOT CARE ABOUT THE STOCK MARKET. THEY WANT AN ECONOMY BASED ON SLOW AND STEADY GROWTH. AND ECONOMY THAT BENEFITS EVERY CHINESE CITIZENS NOT JUST WESTERN INVESTORS.
The guy keep saying there is a gap between market expectation and the government. Suck it up boy! China will be China and do it the Chinese way.
Western investors aren’t allowed to buy stocks on the main Chinese exchanges.
Also, if real estate is dead, and the stock market is a dumpster fire, where are Chinese people supposed to invest their money?
Copium lmao
Infrastructure investment is more important than stocks casino or warfare Ukraine
DESPITE WORLD ECONOMY NOW IN CRISES, CHINA ECONOMY STILL GROW 5.2 %.👍👍👍👍
Deflation in China is more related to the oversupply of pork,which is a staple meat of Chinese,food price comprise 25% composition of deflation or inflation index basket.If the government stop the oversupply of pork then deflation would be gone.
Utter drivel
Right on the contrary Americans can’t afford Inflationary pork price gauging.. . Because greed was misled thru year over year inflation instead of cumulative inflation since COVID.
Wrong
china: deflation and gdp 5.2% is bad
u.s: inflation and gdp 3.1% is amazing and superb
american economists cant get their heads straight 🤣🤣🤡🤡
3.1% growth based on $20,000-$30,000 average yearly income in the US.
5.2% growth is based on $6,000-$7,000 yearly income in China.
Now you do the math.
@@nntflow7058 with $7k in china you can live better than having $30k in the u.s
Look.. am sure American prosperous Boomers will splurge and spend like the last chances to power up Resident Joe’s low approval 😊 The rest of Gen seems focused to get united for the next elected President.
@@privacyhelp it is true
Well…. the neocons hand out scripts for these media to comply? 😬😬
Tell me Which country in history had collapsed because of deflation when they are flying at 5% GDP. Yes none. Therefore the concern is misplace? It a just a boogie man narrative cooked up by the West.
There’s no Deflation Risk.
Deflation is really just an economic boom with Chinese characteristics.
US exports inflation is good, China exports deflation is bad for the world. What kind of logic is that?!
Chinese exports will be expensive then surely that will hurt the economy more
1990. The Economist. China’s economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China’s economy will face a hard landing.
1998. The Economist: China’s economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China’s Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China’s hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China’s Economy Going To Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China’s economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China’s Downfall Started?
….
Yet it’s already 2023 and China’s economy is still going strong.😜😜😜😜😜
No. The treason is two Tiered go to market domestic vs import prices.. overstocks likely get sold fast in Temu. .
@@JESUSSONOFGOD-ei7ln 👍👍😁😁
Deflation is one thing but is quality of life improving?
Safer and cleaner there than here! 😭 the US INFLATION is a compounding TAXATION and compounding THEFT OF OUR RETIREMENT! 🤬😭. ADD $36 Trillion deficit by end of year means MORE TAXES for me and great great great great grandkids!
No, cause companies actually cut wages down.
Yet, US inflation is no problem. News media is doing propaganda work
Good, US investors should walk away from China, go now, and forever. 😂
What china needs is a US small business come in China
In the past 20 years, 90% of American capital in China has left every year.
soon this JPM economist covering China will lose his job as no one interested just like Japan lost decades 2000-2020 no offshore investment into Nikkei.
Can’t believe Chinese numbers…
1990. The Economist. China’s economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China’s economy will face a hard landing.
1998. The Economist: China’s economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China’s Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China’s hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China’s Economy Going To Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China’s economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China’s Downfall Started?
….
Yet it’s already 2023 and China’s economy is still going strong.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@JESUSSONOFGOD-ei7ln The Chinese stock market today is exactly where it was in 2007. 900M people’s income lower than where they were when adjusted for inflation.
@@jzzzxxx You are a fool…
😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂
Use your brain
🙈🙈🙈🙈
@@jzzzxxx Jinxed Murmur GOD HAS ALWAYS LOVED CHINA AND HAS ALWAYS BLESSED CHINA FOREVER.
✝️🇨🇳☯️🙏🙏🙏☯️🇨🇳✝️
✝️ GOD BLESS CHINA ✝️
@@JESUSSONOFGOD-ei7ln God is illegal in China
Never trust the media that reports something that does not match the facts.
1990. The Economist. China’s economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China’s economy will face a hard landing.
1998. The Economist: China’s economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China’s Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China’s hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China’s Economy Going To Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China’s economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China’s Downfall Started?
….
Yet it’s already 2023 and China’s economy is still going strong.
@3:34. I don’t see why that would be a problem.
5% of China’s 🇨🇳 GDP is MORE THAN the entire GDP of Poland 🇵🇱
That is, China is adding another Poland 🇵🇱 to itself.
Poland has 38 million people!! 38 million!! So what is the big deal of adding just a mere 12 million jobs.
So you believe CCP data?😅
@@vissapragadasatyanarayana2750
No, this is not what China is saying.
This is what this video host is saying, which seems to be agreed to by the JPMorgan guy.
But if you don’t believe JPMorgan, you can take the IMF forecast of 4.6% instead if you want.
That would STILL be close to Poland’s entire GDP.
@@vissapragadasatyanarayana2750so you believe your data? We don’t either
@@ChinaSongsCollection well, CNBC need to put JP Morgan and a Chinese ethnic analyst to make the narrative more believable? Anyway, it’s still CNBC’s narrative which they which to push and that’s surely not what the Chinese govt set out to do? Who care about global investors (e.g. putting $$ into their pocket) when the govt is substantially serving 1.4b ppl? 😬😬😂😂
Deflation is bad, because it harms businesses & they will flee to other countries where the inflation is higher, which gives them a higher return on their investments. For example, businesses are fleeing Vietnam, Mexico right now. Many chose to return to America, because it’s currently the best of both worlds. This was caused by a catastrophic failure of the CCP’s financial administration, and exacerbated by US tariffs.
What are you talking about, net FDI to Vietnam is at all time high, 32% increase in 2023 YoY (from prev year’s already all time high). The first 3 quarters of FDI to Mexico 2023 was nearly as much as FY 2022. Mexico replaced China as the largest exporter to US since 2022.
Do you realize the CCP been moving business to Mexico for like 10 years plus already , they’re 10 years ahead of the west
Yeah….. Daydreaming is certainly Free, keep Dreaming 🥳🥳
Anti China bullshit propaganda
Western corporations are shafting people day and night with price gouging, china has deflation of 0.3% which is a market correction and the western so called experts implying like sky has fallen.
It’s funny how analysts try to understand China’s numbers. All are cooked and massaged to make the figures look good even it means changing the definition. Or the CCP completely “stops” publising the youth unemployment numbers all together. Honesty is not the best policy by CCP but manipulative is 😂.
The XJP Chinese government team is very weak on PR and communication. This is something really needs to be improved. They are doing everything right but not managing expectations through communication which is the biggest drawback.
Yea, westerners don’t fall for CCP propaganda. They have choice unlike the Chinese
Really, they don’t give a damn to Western media who will create whatever narratives to push the Western agenda? 🤣🤣
The US inflation is even more real.
I believe in Chinese numbers than Chase analysts.
I’m so confused why so many nations would want to invest in China & Russia with gas, rouble, yuan currency & transact the BRI & BRICS trading under the bunker. Russia has always been investing in its war of annexations while Xi Jinping is preparing for war strengthening its claim for the resources of the SCS. What happens to the UN Charter chapter 7 article 41? Anyone?
😭 the US INFLATION is a compounding TAXATION and compounding THEFT OF OUR RETIREMENT! 🤬😭. ADD $36 Trillion deficit by end of year means MORE TAXES for me and great great great great grandkids!
The word used is “Investors” (they don’t like deflation) but the Chinese govt are working for the Chinese citizens, so do U think they give a damn to all these narratives being spun? 🤭🤭🤣🤣
All the predictions and forecasts mean nothing. CCP is a mafia organization.