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THE LATEST INFLATION REPORT:
Inflation increased to 3.5%, year over year, driven higher by several categories: Energy prices rose 1.1%, Shelter costs rose 0.4%, egg prices increased by 0.9%, and medical care services surged 0.6%. Core CPI also appears nearly unchanged from a year earlier.
THE STOCK MARKET:
Warren Buffett’s measure of the stock market suggests that prices are expensive. With this gauge, a reading of “100% is said to be fair, at 70%, stocks are a bargain price, and if it’s near the 200% mark – investors are playing with fire.” As of the time I’ve filmed the video, the Buffett Indicator is trading at 193%.
However, in fairness – the Buffett Indicator is said to be somewhat flawed since it doesn’t take into account how interest rates could change a company’s valuation. Critics of the “doom and gloom” say that – in the past, bubbles were something hype, and this isn’t hype because AI is being deployed at an alarmingly fast pace. Plus, even a Blackrock Strategist said “The equity market rally that we’ve seen so far has been driven by earnings growth – If this earnings growth wasn’t taking place, I may have been more open to acknowledging the bubble concept.”
THE HOUSING MARKET:
Fannie Mae found that single-family home prices have increased a whopping 7.4% year-over-year, with 1.7% of that coming in just these last 3 months. It’s said that “the supply of new homes for purchase rose to 477,000 in the month, the highest since 2008” – and, the good news for buyers is that those new constructions are actually selling for 1.9% less than a year ago as the market begins to somewhat “normalize.”
Zillow’s forecast “calls for 1.9% growth over 2024 – slower than long-term norms but a welcome slowdown for first-time buyers.” In this case, the main reason for even more growth is still the very real lack of inventory – and, the higher rates go – the less likely existing sellers are to move, which – coincidently, causes prices to rise.
https://www.zillow.com/research/home-value-sales-forecast-33822/
POWELL RATE CUT:
The Federal Reserve decided NOT to lower rates, which means this is now the 8th month in a row that they’ve decided to hold steady. In terms of what Jerome Powell said about this, he mentioned that “Right now, given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it’s appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work.”
They’ve also decided to slow the pace of Quantitative Tightening by purchasing more treasuries beginning in June 1st. In this case, instead of letting $60 Billion Per Month “Expire,” they’re only letting $25 Billion Expire and then reinvesting the difference.
After today’s meeting, the most likely scenario is that Jerome Powell makes no changes until inflation begins to subside, which – is hopefully by the end of the year. If it doesn’t – or, conditions worsen – another rate hike might be in order.
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-Here is a link containing the source material for each piece of research cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as I can, and the additional resources should help anyone who wants to look into them further – enjoy! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lGVssGFgGEyoGgM85bzPB1jzZ_dus7z7tjm021PThkk/edit?usp=sharing
How are you Graham bro ?
Thanks for being quick with your insight, we all appreciate it. 👍
This is bullshit
Home sales are slowing and Auto sales are down. Household dept is at an all time high. Recession incoming.
@@st-cavshush kid. The fact he posts sources alone makes him goated
17:09 that’s probably always going to be true, because everyone dies.
If Biden eins we’ll continue to have the strongest economy in history. If Trump wuns, the media will inform you of how terrible this recession really is and it’s all Trump’s fault. it would have been even worse if Biden wasn’t in the picture.
🤡🤡🤡
how about actually presenting some of these thought you so say you want to hear down below
Higher earnings being an indicator for it not being a bubble is a bad measure IMO. Inflation=Higher Earnings. Why would anyone be surprised by that. % of earnings that are profit would be a better indicator.
Ahh rich people telling me the recession is over.
Hasn’t even started yet
Graham, do you ever listen to macroeconomics guys like Eurodollar? They go way back in studying the Fed and technically they just don’t have the ability to make changes to real interest rates and definitely not inflation to the degree all of the financial media thinks. They give more weight to the supply shock and demand destruction plaguing us since 2008. I could be wrong but would be interested in your take.
dude this is so much negative news man graham is scaring all of us to death lol
i honestly have to question graham’s ability to deliver news to all of us like he’s not an economics expert vs the guys who have phd’s in this stuff who are running the government
Interest rates are higher than inflation they aren’t going to hike….
Wow 3.5% inflation. I remember the late 80’s in Australia when interest rates were as high as 21%. One place (Sunbury) was promoted to buy a house and quickly became known as divorce city with families breaking up over the hard times. 🦘🦘
This dude stays lying lol
*Any economic genius with half a brain understands they can’t lower rates no time soon. The way the crooks in Congress spend money they don’t have, we are about to experience hyper inflation.
Not sure how inflation can only be 3.5%, when house insurance premiums increase 30%, car insurance up 49%, health insurance up 15%, groceries now cost double for the same items previously purchased.
And internet pricing had a 21% increase
Answer to the question the people who regulate insurance are the same people who are responsible for the increase in prices.
Could you change your video style a little bit?
Big statement but what I mean is you speak quickly and in the same up and down tonal range. It makes it more difficult than necessary to stay tuned into and genuinely hear the message, or tell when one thought has ended and another has begun. In short, it’s really easy to tune out snd miss the message because of how it’s delivered. Pause more, breath more, use more laymans verbiage, and please simplify. (For us feeble minded types. )
I need info at a slower speed as well. Have you tried setting the playback speed? Helped me a lot for some content.
I made absolutely sure that when I die in my will it states to either bury me in the backyard or feed me to a pig farm.
Pause till elections, in actuality markets tanked last year, just a bunch of pretty graphics and numbers now! AI fighting against AI , rubber dead cat bounce that just want end!
Hmm it’s almost like when you print trillions of dollars while also reducing production by targeting those who create products with increased regulations and taxes it causes prices to go up and nobody really cares what the interest rates are…
Running out of money IS scarier than death. Living on the streets is definitely a much worse fate than death for me.
Is real estate worth buying rn?
Interest rates are up, and prices are also rising in my area!
This is some phenomenal content!
Doesn’t your desk with rivets bother you?
See this is how it works, The last president prints a shitload of money and mishandles a pandemic recovery effort, then we feel the effects in this presidency, and now they’re going to stave off the recession until the next guy gets elected, and then that will *also* become propaganda, for every person, for every side, and then we do this **forever** while our blood turns to plastic, very cool
Raising rates is like a band aid on a self inflicted gunshot. Stop shooting yourself with overspending and printing money.
In the case of forced home sale, leading to available liquidity…what would be recommended?
Thinking of sitting and looking for land with no building restrictions and developing a long term plan for capital.
No one saw a rare hike coming? I couldn’t tell if you were being sarcastic. I thought everyone who was paying attention saw that coming.
Why am I always late? 😩😩😩
I enjoy your content like we’re in a room chatting
Alright, fine, I’ll resubscribe, Graham. Love the videos
If america aware they have collapsed power in every side of world…. So the us dollars is weakening , then Ukraine, middle east war on going need more printing money not good and bad for economy,….
“As far as what I have to say abt everything, I think it’s a bit of a mess”. 🤣. My thoughts exactly. TY for educational/informative content (sincerely). I watched entire vid. Very good 🤘
Who’s here after the Kendrick lamar diss…meet the grahams. 🤣 jk
They are saying that Ozempic has become so popular that it may impact stores like Dunkin’ Donuts and even grocery store products. Who saw that coming? lol That’s one way to fight inflation.
I order a dozen of the Glazed Ozempic donuts every morning from Dunkin. 😂
It’s going to be a long year.😅
Whenever anyone uses the word “pivot” in the business world, bs detectors activate.
Prices are falling in areas where no one wants to move to. AZ, CA, NV, TX… prices are still going up.
Do you think this dude could actually talk if his hands were tied down?
You cant just cancel a recession. The nationwide private and public economy has to meet certain data points to begin to start the process out of a recession. And then maintain or exceed thise data points for a certain number of consecutive months.
If you would stop pandering with your titles, you might get more respect.
Inflation started going up in October 2023… hmmmm, i wonder whyyyy? I wonder what happened in October 2023 that could have triggered inflation… hmmmmm
Wait…. So if interest rates go down, demand increases. Prices increase
If interest rates go up, supply decreases due to less people selling, and prices increase.
Mind. Blown.
Inflation is just another word for taxes. And we alllllll know the government is broke!
Graham, Are you a YouTube Munchkin? 😂😂😂
You talk about inflation almost like its some automatically occurring force of nature and the Fed is just doing its best to keep it at bay for all of us.
No. Inflation is intentionally caused by the government as they debase our currency though money printing (aka legalized counterfeiting). Inflation benefits the wealthiest asset holders while stealing cash from the poor and middle class in the form of weakening our buying power.
Inflation does not have to happen at this rate. The Fed is not on our side.
I have not understood how the market seems to think it knows where the rates are going, its like they have someone in the inner circle of powell’s brain trust.
AI will destroy us.
new watch?!
20 minutes is waaaay too long for this video. It’s the same story the idiots in Washington printed way too much money and your dollar is less valuable and loans probably won’t be affordable for the rest of your life. Also, the American dream is dead.
Taking anything Blackrock says seriously is like take anything a geologist says about the weather seriously.
Not sure I see it that way
I’m starting my first corporate salaried position with benefits and I have budgeted to invest 75% of my income to max my HSA, Roth IRA, & 401k Match by living with my mom and eating her food.
If the stock market crashes, I’ll put every penny into it during the recession.
Thanks mom!
does youtube unsubscribe randomly for anyone else ?
Hallelujah!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻was owning a loan of $47,000 to the bank for my son’s brain surgery (David), Now I’m no longer in debt after I invested $12,000 and got my payout of m $270,500 every months,God bless Chloe Linda Henderson🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸..*
Hello how do you make such monthly ?? I’m a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down 🤦 of myself because of low finance but I still believe in God.
Thanks to my co-worker (Alex) who suggested Ms Chloe Linda Henderson.
She’s a licensed broker in the states 🇺🇸
After I raised up to 325k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states 🇺🇸🇺🇸 also paid for my son’s surgery (Oscar). Glory to God.shalom.
Great to see you guys talking about her, she changed the game for me.
2:55 Yes, it comes in waves.
I’m dumb so tell me if this is wrong: the fed over spent to pay the bills during Covid (stimulus etc) transferred all that to a 0% interest balance transfer card to buy time (bonds/treasuries) and now we all just have to suck it up and work off the debt over time with hard work (GDP) and monthly payments (interest rate hikes). What am I missing?
History shows In a debt base Economy Inflation eventually goes parabolic and fails. It’s just a matter of time. The fed doesn’t print money they issue bonds that banks use to loan money and at that point money is created. It’s all a Ponzi scheme
So I heard place puts on the top stocks and pull a Mark Cuban
The house we’ve been eyeing just dropped 35k! Lennar his dropping prices yet still offering rate buy-down
The Government can’t stop spending so yeah it’s not a far fetched idea
The power industry is much slower, moving than people realize. They’re still building, solar and new infrastructure to support that. That will intern raise power costs. It’s complicated, but it comes down to the fact that solar During daylight hours.
Gas in Utah just YTD has increased by $1
Thanks Graham for always keeping up to date ! You’re the man
A great reminder that NO ONE can really predict, the Economy, stock market, and the future! Do what makes sense for YOU!!!
So buy now to get the most value of current home and hopefully refinance in 2025/2026?
They called it too late 😳
would love your thoughts on 1st time home buyers and if we should jump into this market right now….
Holding off the recession until after the election.
I know an addiction to beat gestures when I see one.
Bro stop moving your hands it’s making me dizzy
Smells like an election is coming…
I’m sure sending 100s of billions of dollars to the Ukraine (and now israel)(so they can launder it back to themselves) has nothing to do with them not being able to control inflation
Establishment is loving this right now
Thank you for the much needed information
Plot twist courtesy of the Federal Reserve: Recession canceled, prices dropping! But wait, there’s more— a ‘Massive Pivot Ahead.’ Buckle up, folks, let’s see if this turns out to be a masterful economic maneuver or just another rollercoaster ride. Here’s hoping our wallets can keep up
Are you sure…
THERE IS NO ONE, NO ONE AT THE HELM IN TH EUSA!
PLEASE END THE MOVIE CLIPS IN YOUR VIDEOS: THYE ARE VERY DISTRACTING AND USELESS OVERALL. FILMS ARE ONLY A MOMENT IN TIME AND SHOW NOTHING AT ALL.
All of the IT crap is built on a house of cards nothing on the internet is real!
We are ruled by crooks
A true gem of the LGBTQ community. Thank you Graham for everything you do
Saving up for a house looking forward to interest rates to drop by the end of the year. By then I’ll have enough for down payment for a house.
👍🏼
A.I. bubble :P’
Lol i typed that about 10 second before you mentioned it :PPPP
Oh and having 47% of your debt is owned to “Asia” does not help
Facts: you’re a YouTuber. What do you know.
the most important things for everyone to understand is we need freer markets, they lead to lower prices over time, taxation is theft and inflation is theft of the purchasing power of your hard earned money… until we stop those in power stealing more and more from everyone to benefit themselves this only gets worse and worse
According to the Biden Administration, we are doing better than ever. Vote for the future folks. And by “vote’, i mean VOTE against these puppets in the white house right now.
Graham Stephan for president 2024
I don’t think the Buffet indicator makes sense to use anymore since many sp500 companies are global companies now, not just US companies.
We would not be having this convo if PRESIDENT TRUMP was IN THE WHITE HOUSE WHERE HE BELONGS. TRUMP 2024. 👍
To the almighty algorithm why haven’t you been showing me Stephen Graham more often. Show me more of his videos it’s been a long time thank you Almighty YouTube algorithm that is my message
Millennials and Gen Z are spending more on groceries? I wonder if this has anything to do with Instacart and DoorDash getting people to pick up their food and other essentials for absurd tips.
Just let the recession happen…we are already screwed.
These numbers are cooked. Cherry picked information. This administration is pathologically lying to us. The HPI has priced most new home buyers out of the market which means, at best, the housing market is moving laterally. Credit card debt is at an all time high and wage growth has pretty much flattened out. Do you feel like the economy is strong Graham or are you just clicking those red heals together mumbling “there’s no place like home, there’s no place like home”?
Maybe stop printing billions to give to other countries and inflation would stop increasing.
Graham, I’ve been watching you for years and I want to say that I absolutely hate to see Yotta devolve into what it has become today. It is promoting predatory and gambling behaviors to exploit its users and it resembles nothing like what it used to. Are you still invested in the company and do you support the predatory tactics they are using??
I prefer to think of inflation as the rate that our money loses value !
The people making money off of ai are the same people that expect kids to go out and get the jobs they did when they were younger. The vast majority of those jobs are being taken by ai or non Americans that can take less because they don’t have to pay taxes. Also say it like it is , inflation is where it is because the government has printed more money in the last decade than the rest of the entire history of the United States. Saying Meta went down 10% or whatever the number was is nothing. The year prior, it was down to 89 dollars a share. It going from 500 to mid 400s isn’t that big of a deal. Personally I’m waiting on the bubble because I saw what happened in 08 and how many people lost their entire retirement packages. People say this time is different because what they were doing with mortgages and so on isn’t being done today. I’d rebuttal that with in 08 there wasn’t trillion dollar packages being signed to destroy the dollar. We had wars going on, but in a time where there’s an invasion into the country and low skilled labor is being taken by ai, what is the purpose of this invasion into the country? No one can tell me this is organic because the amount of money going into it says otherwise. Also we didn’t have over a trillion dollars in credit card debt alone. Weak men create hard times , I hope the younger generation understands this.
And when dO these prices drop? Just keep going up wherever I go in the US…
My main question why is that Ford GT just sitting there take her out to stretch them Massive tires and blazing HORSEPOWER