Yahoo Finance’s Brian Cheung breaks down the treasury yield curve in detail and explains why it can be an indicator of a recession.
Subscribe to Yahoo Finance: https://yhoo.it/2fGu5Bb
About Yahoo Finance:
At Yahoo Finance, you get free stock quotes, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, international market data, social interaction and mortgage rates that help you manage your financial life.
Connect with Yahoo Finance:
Get the latest news: https://yhoo.it/2fGu5Bb
Find Yahoo Finance on Facebook: http://bit.ly/2A9u5Zq
Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter: http://bit.ly/2LMgloP
Follow Yahoo Finance on Instagram: http://bit.ly/2LOpNYz
1:22 OMG Yahoo Finance the 2.18% return for $1000 is $21.80 NOT $218.00
Dammit. Beat me to it
He had over 4 mistakes…hes actor posing as influencer…program TV is here
Are we to trust them if they can’t do math on the subject matter
Embarrassing!!!!
His teleprompter has it wrongly worded …. at the end of 10 year the 10 year bond at 2.18 percent yields 218 dollars
Invest $1000, receive $218 yearly from 2.18%? I think that math is all jacked up. I think he meant invest $10k and receive $218 yearly.
$10,000 x .0218 = $218
10yr not year
3:44 Chart says 2009 instead of 2000
1:22 I think he meant over the year year hold not per year…
Deffo need to proof before you publish.
The guys a straight financial moron…treasures arent called “safe assets”…he reading of cue cards.
Hes so smart hes reading what yield curve is off a cue card…this is ment for retail consumerz… motley fools
According to this moron a real yahoo… a 1000 dollar 10year treasury at 2.18% gets you…21.8% return.
It’s like every where I’m surrounded by actors influencing the idiots.
Move before the bank
Good educational content. Thanks!
Down .9 lmao
Tesla Op down .74 lmao
Ayayay!
0.721% today… Like if you’re watching this because of Coronavirus!
So if it goes down below 1% why is that bad? Explain it to me like I’m an idiot lol
Vinny B My understanding is that would you put 1000$ away for 10 years to earn $72 when you could put 1000$ away in the 2 year bonds and receive more in yield in less time. So, long term sentiment is that investors think short term investing (for 2 years) is better than long term (10 years) – they are not going to risk locking in investments for ten years when 2 years makes them more money.
@@koconnor00 what causes 10 year to drop & the 2 year not?
J S S I believe it’s because investors have more confidence in the near term. 10 years out is a long time, but two years out not as far so this inversion makes it more attractive to investors. In normal conditions you’d obviously want more for your investment the longer you lock it away. But investors may think 10 years is too far away given the current economic climate.
Yahoo finance unistall your internet services and go back to 1st grade
Just hit 0.50% on 03/08/2020 …. terrifying
I went back and listened it twice to make sure it is correct. Or… is it?
This was one of the most informative explanations of the Yield Curve and overall Government Treasuries
Are mortgage interest rates going to drop even lower?
No they ended up going up
I’m a smart guy but this can be confusing to laymen.. blah blah 😕
At 1:25 his script has it wrongly worded, or he just glanced at it and worded it incorrectly…. at the end of 10 year the 10 year bond at 2.18 percent yields 218 dollars (not at the end of the year ), at the end of the year its 21.8 dollars. And that’s not the only mistake in this video … I think they should remake it … if they say they are yahoo finance … this makes them look pretty sad
Brian himself even said he’s a ‘washed up’ economist.
Anyone else still confused? 😳
💀😜🤪🥶🤣🤙🤙😈💀💀
Yields go up with the prospect of an economic recovery based on Government stimulus or infrastructure projects.
Gold goes down.
Also, he said more demand caused the rates to go down. next sentence, “conversely when there’s MORE demand the yield goes up”. Lolol
yeah. i thought i didnt understand this. had to replay several times assuming my undrestanding is wrong. all his logic does make sense. not like stock that up means good. seems it is kn his redundant statements.
I JUST commented on that. Glad it’s not my ADHD making me zone out and miss things.
Spotted that too! He meant to say when LESS demand yield goes up! 😂
That part ruined the whole video for me.
Lol I hate when people say things to try to sound smart and then make it worse by messing up. Doesn’t really help people to understand better either.
It’s simple demand and supply. In normal times of growth, people are pretty much more optimistic about the short term, because it’s easier to see what’s just up ahead versus what’s 10 miles down the road. Therefore, people will buy more short term bonds which will cause those shorter term bond prices to go up. Bond prices move inversely with interest rates (yields), because you can think of interest rates as the incentive for people to want to buy what you’re selling. If more people start gravitating to the intrinsic value of my offer, I can offer less perks (lower yields), while raising the price to suffice the demand. And the inverse is true for longer term bonds like the 10-year. The future holds a lot of uncertainty, so it usually requires more incentive (yield) to persuade people into taking on that kind of time-factor risk. And if you can visualize that, and plot it on a curve, you’d get an upward sloping trend line they call the yield curve. Now with that same logic, you can understand the general economic/market sentiment by looking at that curve. If people aren’t too ecstatic about the present or near future, the curve will start to flatten and/or slope downwards.
Sorry if this was too long, but I hope it helped. Lots more to fully understanding bonds (still learning myself), but that’s the basic idea
This helped. Thx
This was a far better explanation than the video.
$2180
Makes no sense in one hand you say when people buy treasuies the yield goes down then when there is more demand the rate goes up ? what ?
The first part is correct 2nd not.
Worst explanation ever i seen obviously just a mouth piece who ever wrote the script needs the sack.
There are at least 3 mistakes in this video. It’s a nice and educational but please make sure things are correct.
WTF , this video is full of mistakes……
I do find it strange that gambling is not allowed in many places in the world, but “investing” is encouraged.
Worst explanation I ever heard
1:33 – 1:51 this is it!
This is so bad
What?
The only thing I got from this was that yields go up and down because of market forces, and that people want to hold long term government debt. No explanation of either statement though.
Oh boy, this is full of errors. There is the obvious glaring error that 2.18% of $1000 is $21.80 not $218. But there is also no mention of the fact that T-bills are discount instruments, which means they don’t pay out anything, unlike corp bonds, but are instead priced at a discount to the future value. And that discount rate is the yield %. So a 1-year T-bill with a 2.18% yield means you can buy a 1-year T-bill today for $978.2 and can cash it in for $1000 one year from now. Or you can sell it before the one year is up on the secondary market.
And since you’re buying it closer to the maturity, that lowers the yield, right? Because one of two payouts on the coupon/yield may have already occurred, plus the hypothetical risk the bond issuer will vanish is cut in half so less reward for less risk?
Not helpful
This guy sucks at explaining
When you present with confidence , even wrong facts can look true . 2.18% returns 218 dollars on 1000$ .
Thats why CEOs like Theranos and Nikola do so well,
For 10 years …
did anyone come here after the current market sell off??? 😀
I’m too scared to look at my portfolio everyday 🤣😭
Man, he really messed that up didn’t he? 2.18% of $1000 is not $218. Also his chart at the end says 2005 instead of 2000. I think someone may have been in a bit of a rush…
Don’t take it too seriously, it’s Yahoooooo!
terrible explanation. and loads of mistakes. Cant Yahoo afford an editor?
I’m confused. Wth did I just watch? Someone please explain why the nasdaq is taking such a hard hit, when the yields is only 1.6 and this video is showing that it was 2.18 before or higher
I had better understanding before i watched this video
He meant 10K
Worst explanation ever
01:45 wait when there’s more demand yield goes up? I thought he just said it goes down when there’s more demand
He just said the inverse of what he just said.
I want to know more about the instruments. How does the 10 year yield change intraday? What is causing the fluctuating? Is it a future? I know the ZB futures exist but I think those are longer term like 15 to 30 years.
most people don’t fully explain how yields work. All they say is, “when prices of treasuries go up, yields go down. And vice versa”. Nothing more than that. And in this case, they say it in one of the most convoluted ways possible.
It has to do with supply and demand for treasuries.
Higher demand = higher prices. Then, given that the coupon rates on treasuries are set upon issuance and do not change, the actual cash flows that you get over duration of bond are static (for example: $20/year for a 2%, $1,000 face value bond). As such, the yield is the return you get (i.e., coupon payments + face value) on your investment (i.e., market price you paid which is driven by supply and demand). So if prices are driven up because investors are dumping money into treasuries, the resulting higher prices equal lower yields, because, again, the cash flows received (I.e., your return) over duration of bond are static.
Bad explanation what yields are……
Brain has a typo, again….
right at the point!!
Damn the female presenter, camera guy, editors isn’t know better themselves to correct this guy 😂
usa is the biggest waster of gas in the world
its a big problem
In its relentless pursuit of oil, the shale industry burns more and more gas into the air. This wasted gas exceeds the yearly demand of nations such as Colombia.
The rate of flaring in the Permian basin reached a record high in the first three months of this year, averaging 661 million cubic feet per day (MMcfd), according to Rystad Energy. That is more than double the amount of flaring for the same period from a year earlier.
boycott usa until they stop wasting all the gas we have
boycott usa today
I have more questions aftet watching this wondeful lesson.
From now on i will make sure to read comments more. They seem to be smarter and correct (218 yearly was funny 🤣 ) than the video itself.
nice Brian is good looking but when someone goodlooking is also dumb I lose interest
ffs, ye kind of know when u see yahoo before the word finance that its going to be a circus.
Is he mad 218$ yearly returns on 1000$ my god sing me up…..
Huh?
The math was wrong, the explanation of the demand was wrong, etc. If he’s inaccurate on things that I DO understand, then I’m afraid to trust what he says on everything that I don’t.
1:35 When there’s demand for bonds rates go down, but “conversely” when there’s more demand for “rates” they go up. Huh 🤔. This guy is like every college professor I had.
Yeah had to rewind it.
Yeah I don’t understand that. Can you please explain?
Because bonds are sold at a rate to maintain supply. If the gov’t sells debt at 3% and then everyone wants it, they can reduce it to 2%. If noone wants it, the yield has to go up to make it more appealing to actually buy
@@JakeAllen3 thank you i was like he said that wrong.
I was thinking the same thing!
thanks
This is DEBTS…..
1:33 Treasury Yields go down when there’s more demand for them
1:47 When there’s more demand, rates will go up
2% of $1000 is not $200
Mistakes happen, but note that he made a big mistake in a comment. He said that you’d get a $281 return on a $1000 investment in his example, but it would be $28.10.
no help
From the beginning of this video, the layman is lost. It starts with the assumption that people have a grasp of the concept of what a bond is, what the hell “maturity” has to do with money. YouTube is full of these videos LOADED with information, but the video doesn’t even TRY to “teach” and of the info it is presenting.
Useless
Why is ^TNX up 99% YTD yet TLD is down 22%? What is the difference between ^TNT and TLD?
Welp. Recession came
Getting the basic arithmetic wrong bro. No bueno
3 years ago, good times
So basically when the economy turns to s*** people are looking for a safe investment in bonds and then the yield goes up. When the economy is excellent like this video time period. People purchasing more stocks and less need for bonds. So the yield today is 3.5%, people are looking for a safe bet and bonds but bonds are tanking as well in the stag inflation. The difference is we didn’t have inflation 3 years ago 🤷.
Here we are. Time to pay back the ignored recession.
For investors, inverted curves are not a very predictive tool as recessions happend 6-23 months..so not very accurate
Why is 2009 before 2005 on the chart?
Shoutout to y’all for this video. Thank you. I get it now
did you get how fed move affect short time treasuries ?
Great explanation but there is a typo on your chart. It says 2009 before 2010. I think that was suppose to be 2004. Also, 2.18% of $1000 is $21.80. Other than that great break down.
I’m not being a racist bigot; but leave it to the well educated Asian Person to always give a good, through explanation on Any Topic.
$21.80. Not $218.
Thought it was only me not getting it right. Glad that even others are also confused. Happy learning