The Upcoming 2021 Real Estate Collapse Explained

2020/12/24
 
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Here is my analysis on the 2021 Real Estate Market, what will happen to housing prices, and whether or not it’s a good time to buy or invest in a home – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan

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What will happen to the real estate market in 2021?

This article from the National Association of Realtors, who launched a survey among 20 top US economic and housing experts, predicted that housing would see an increase of 8% in 2021.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/top-economic-and-housing-experts-predict-post-pandemic-rebound-with-continued-job-growth-stable

THE CONTRIBUTORS FOR THIS:
Right now, lack of inventory is a big issue. It’s recently recorded that the number of homes currently listed for sale on the market is at its lowest level EVER RECORDED, going back NEARLY 40 YEARS

Second, we’re seeing incredibly low interest rates.
Rates have NOW dropped below 2.7% on a standard 30 year fixed rate mortgage…which is UNREAL.. and just for reference, last year, mortgage rates were about 3.7%…which is nearly 40% HIGHER than what we’re seeing today.

That also means – BECAUSE OF THAT – home buying demand has increased…and increased…and increased…to a BRAND NEW RECORD HIGH. A survey found that more than HALF of buyers felt like it was a good time to buy because of insanely low mortgage interest rates, so it’s no surprise that’s driving a BIG push for people to lock in a low rate while they still can.

HOWEVER…Not EVERYONE is so optimistic.

The economist, Michael Strain, mentions that, as of recently, 10% of the 8-million single family mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration were delinquent by more than three months….along with “These delinquencies are heavily concentrated among loans associated with low credit scores.” 

He then says that this is cause for concern, because the ONLY REASON we’re NOT seeing a “Wave of foreclosures” is because of a provision in the cares act that temporarily freezes foreclosures until 2021.

Well, through September of 2018…the rate of seriously diligent loans was about 3.7%…and, at any given point in time, historically, 8-9% of FHA are behind on their payments by 30 days or more…so, YES, FHA loans more than 90 days late ARE more than DOUBLE what they were just 2 years ago…but, given that – most of the time, almost 4% are consistently more than 90 days late..it’s not AS BAD as we expected.

The data company Black Knight found that 2.75 million mortgages, or 5.2% of all residential properties with a mortgage, were in active forbearance as of Dec. 8.

But, here’s a more broad perspective when it comes to this:

There are 138 million total housing units in the United States – this includes single family, condos, multi-family, and apartment buildings…and of those, 40% are completely owned outright with no mortgage.

Then – of those properties with a mortgage, which is estimated to be approximately 50 million properties…the mortgage bankers association found that that 5.83% are in a forbearance plan, which they say impacts 2.9 million households.

In order for a home to be foreclosed, it needs to be taken over by the bank – and the seller must GENERALLY owe more on the home than what it’s worth, otherwise – the seller would just sell the home on the market to avoid foreclosure. Well, the data company CoreLogic found that only 3% of all mortgaged properties are underwater, which is an ALL TIME LOW.

So, if we assume that ALL 3% of those underwater homes go into foreclosure from those 5.83% of loans in forbearance…that means only 0.1749% of mortgaged properties would be foreclosed on…or, 96,000 total homes.

So, OVERALL…based on the numbers and evidence presented to us…no, a wave of foreclosures is HIGHLY UNLIKELY of ever happening that would “Crash” the real estate market.

For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at GrahamStephanBusiness@gmail.com

*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available.

この記事を書いている人 - WRITER -
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  1. Avatar Overspray says:

    What’s better ? Lower interest or lower house price?

    • Avatar Sekai Ni Heiwa says:

      at this moment the best is sitting lower than a grass quieter than a mouse

    • Avatar lori elms says:

      The mortgage would be pretty much the same depending on your credit and down payment.

  2. Avatar Saul Goodman says:

    Every month people are saying there’s a real estate crash coming.

  3. Avatar Flyboy Maverick says:

    why on earth are you shouting? it gets really hard for the ears to follow till the end!

  4. Avatar Sekai Ni Heiwa says:

    This is the best time to sell your house – this is the worse time to buy it. Sell it all you have, go to rent, and wait, you will make money without risk. A lot!

    • Avatar Graham Stephan says:

      Leave a message through my gmail therealkiyosaki3 for inside tips and guidance

  5. Avatar Joseph Edlin says:

    Realtors believe it’s going up 😂 Realtors so full of crap. Ask 5 Realtors what direction the housing market is going next year and 6 of them will say up. Jeez… even if it’s going down they’ll tell you it’s because it’s about to go up 😂

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  6. Avatar Sammy Solis says:

    Very good analysis gram , thanks a lot !

    • Avatar Sammy Solis says:

      @Graham Stephan SCAM 🚨

  7. Avatar wakeensito says:

    Sell stocks ✍️ get a HELOC ✍️ buy 20 houses for ✍️

  8. Avatar Andrew Pike says:

    I’ll go through and like every video if you mentor me 😛

    • Avatar Andrew Pike says:

      @Graham Stephan why do you have no subscribers on this account that replied? And why is it only 6 days old..

  9. Avatar Esteban Abundes says:

    I know your secrets Graham!!

  10. Avatar Sekai Ni Heiwa says:

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    You buy a property somewhere in the US doesn’t matter where but at least 200-300K, downpayment 30K, and get 30 years mortgage.
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  11. Avatar Jesus Saldana says:

    Love you grant. Thank you for the info

  12. Avatar Bearded.Techie says:

    Gotta another “white” like button Graham 👍👍🏻👍🏽👍🏿

  13. Avatar Peter Shaver says:

    It’s almost like covid not killing any old people and they just living forever in their homes.

    • Avatar MuffinTessee says:

      It’s almost like all the old people dying live in assisted living facilities

  14. Avatar Colin Bovet says:

    Not quite right that you’d save $270 a month, every month for 30 years. That’s only the first month! Interest payment decreases each month while principal increases.

    • Avatar Graham Stephan says:

      BUT the interest rate is still the same on your outstanding balance

  15. Avatar Hafsa Quadri says:

    Well Graham, instead of being concerned of what color of shirt you’re wearing, you could’ve pulled off as bff of Casper, the friendly Ghost. Haha!

  16. Avatar HustleHardStudyHarder says:

    Of course only 3% have negative equity house prices are crazy high. What happens when supply goes up and demand goes down. A lot of that positive equity will be wiped cause a cascade effect.

  17. Avatar lori elms says:

    Buying a home right now and planning to live their 10+ years right now will not make a difference.

  18. Avatar Thomas Reedy says:

    The interest rates are great but the prices are skyrocketing so fast it is hard to believe that appraisals will keep up.

    So you need a big chunk of cash to close the deal.

  19. Avatar rock m says:

    Graham! Any a recommendations for a CPA? I closed on my first 4 unit in mid city Los Angeles and really need to figure out taxes…

  20. Avatar O k says:

    You are TOO HYPER to listen to. I had to leave the video in seconds!!! Seriously STOP trying to be Jim Carey and CALM
    D O W N!!!

  21. Avatar Success Within says:

    Yes please tell us the FUTURE so we Can do WHATEVER WE WANT 😎

    • Avatar Success Within says:

      Floating head 🤣🤣

  22. Avatar William Mccuin says:

    Is it bad that I pay rent on time, every time? Asking for a friend.. 😂

  23. Avatar Gavin Jones says:

    Your numbers seem to bear out that a housing market collapse is unlikely to happen in 2021.

    What I didn’t necessarily see in the analysis is how many folks may be on the margins of becoming underwater. In other words, it seems relatively easy for a homeowner to not be underwater when home prices are high. That same home may quickly become underwater should housing prices drop. The number that are likely/guaranteed to be underwater is low right now, but how many people are really close to that line?

  24. Avatar MELS E-Learn Dot Com says:

    Buy low , sell high.😁

  25. Avatar Rusty Isham says:

    If you wasn’t so worried about that f****** like button I’d watch your videos again

  26. Avatar D A says:

    Manhattan, as usual, is doing its own thing that is the opposite of the average across the country. There is huge excess inventory in NYC of apartments for sale.

  27. Avatar TheOtherGuy says:

    Graham, what do you think of buying a rental property in the next few years? you’ll be paying a premium but getting a lower interest rate. That higher price for the house means you have less equity if the market “corrects”

  28. Avatar haplomage says:

    You know what? That was smooth, have a like.

  29. Avatar Geoffrey Yoste says:

    You better get out in that Nevada sun a little bit more before you wear a white shirt. Just messing with you, keep up the great work.

    Peace from Mississippi 😎✌️

  30. Avatar Marty Carlton says:

    hey – nice analysis, graham – thanks for the video

  31. Avatar Courtney says:

    I think Millennial and Gen-Z demand to buy is unprecedented with low interest rates will outpace foreclosures so I agree prices will keep going up. Also it depends on the market if there will be a recession – I am from the DC area and counties like Arlington VA where I have a condo have not gone down in 30+ years… even after 2008. In fact by 2010 they were up past pre-recession levels. DC market is more affordable with tech industry now in town compared to Seattle San Fran, so people are leaving and coming to that market.

  32. Avatar 1qaz says:

    Graham the only thing that wasn’t clear: are you talking about the housing market in california or the US in general? Because the housing market can be quite different in different states & different locations

    • Avatar Shearf3ar says:

      hes talking about us in general. he doesnt live in ca anymore im pretty sure.

    • Avatar Shawn Warnick says:

      My area there is litterally like 5 homes for sale in 15 miles radius. Its insane how little there is

  33. Avatar Vykintas Jocys says:

    Short hair makes you look better my competitor ….

  34. Avatar Chris Bryant says:

    Yeah equity is at an all-time high because prices are inflated to an all-time high…. its very simple, what goes up must come down

  35. Avatar Francis Robindaine-Duchesne says:

    What’s the watch on your wrist?

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  37. Avatar Greg Harris says:

    Banks and the Fed have ruined property ownership for most people. Get a house and some rentals and BAM! They jerk the rug out, your tenants cant pay their rent, no one can get a job and VOILA! They foreclose on your home and wash, rinse and repeat to the new sucker to sign for the mortgage(s).

  38. Avatar Judith Holleran says:

    Too many commercials on this video. Depressing for buyers.

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  41. Avatar C P says:

    Your hand gesture and facial impression, are you an Italian origin by any chance? Or maybe it’s the video editing, I don’t know, I just felt dizzy when watching

  42. Avatar UltimateBargains says:

    USDA, VA, and FHA are very low down-payment loans, so the property is immediately under water when the loan closes.
    Forbearance puts the property farther under water.
    The borrowers will not be able to qualify for loan modifications when forbearance ends.
    Foreclosures and short sales are coming.

    • Avatar Graham stephan says:

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  43. Avatar Leslie Susana says:

    This market has me soo confused! One article says housing boom and other housing crash. In my area, North atlanta-there was very low inventory in summer and now the inventory has increase which has stable home prices some.

  44. Avatar Daddy Debt says:

    Mmm I think everyone has learned from 2008. I think the housing market might stall but not crash

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  45. Avatar Shawn Gallo says:

    The real estate market won’t collapse until the Fed raises rates stop stimulus and unemployment goes way up. This is a few years out.

    • Avatar Shawn Gallo says:

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  46. Avatar Rebecca Camejo says:

    God, you are a genius.

  47. Avatar Daniel dixon says:

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  53. Avatar Dad says:

    I wanna buy assets if I am 18 while working, but my parents have bought a house and they need to pay monthly they payed 36.000€ and the price of the house is somewhere above 300.000€ they won’t buy the house until they get really old and they are expecting me to grow up, get a Job and help them with the house. But I wanna invest. It will take really really long until I pay everything. So every month I need to pay for food, clothing and the House (and the other normal stuff) I don’t think there will be much money to invest and buy assets. I am trying to start doing some Bug Hunting and Streaming because it’s almost the same as passive income and these are 2 things I always wanted to do in my life also they may help me buying the house. Sucks but what should I do. I also have a Brother that needs to pay. If the house is mine and the one of my brother we will most likely sell it. Let’s say it will give around 900k. I will get 500k because I will pay more then my brother so after getting this money what should I do? Buy a old house renovate it sell it? Or buy a house let some guy rent it and after 10 years selling the house? I am confused I am 14 and I see how I will suffer from the poor mindset of my parents. I don’t even think I should think about this at my age but I started eduacting myself about money recently and now I see all the problems.

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  54. Avatar Jonnyblendz_ says:

    Quit trying to be funny just spill the info … cringe

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  56. Avatar Tips 4 truckers says:

    Great video Graham

  57. Avatar Alfredo Rodriguez says:

    You nailed it! One figure you left out was the fact that the US has a housing inventory shortage of about 2.5 million units. So even if the 1.6 million units that could go into foreclosure actually did, they would more than likely just be readily absorbed into the market when they are put up for sale as REO and would not have a significant impact on the market as a whole.

  58. Avatar Dre Ster says:

    Great video could you do the same one but on the coronavirus. Telling us how dangerous this virus is and that everything should stay shut down 😉

    • Avatar Dre Ster says:

      @Graham stephan OK I’m sending all the money right now

  59. Avatar motorswaps says:

    Thank you for simplifying the data. Didn’t have time to research all of this.

  60. Avatar emeraldcitydreamz says:

    No dips like 2008 when you and Kevin got in eh? Bummer.

  61. Avatar Michele Holley says:

    ARK is buying Open House. 🧐

  62. Avatar notmycupotea says:

    unemployment and homelessness at an all time high.

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  63. Avatar David Krausse says:

    So let’s see here…
    1. Record low interest rates.
    2. Forbearance given to thousands of homeowners
    3. Eviction moratoriums
    4. Government stimulus to individuals and businesses
    5. Government flooding the market in the Repo market

    If any one of those things doesn’t continue in 2021 the market will react adversely.

    I will respectfully disagree with your conclusion.

  64. Avatar Tyler J says:

    I’d like to hear your thoughts on
    becoming a real estate agent in 2021. Thanks

    • Avatar Todd Dillon says:

      Call your local real estate board or board of realtors, ask 2 questions, 1) how many agents closed at least on deal in 2020, and 2) how many homes are for sale in the county you live in. Then do the math. In my area, 25 agents with their teams close 48% of all transactions. We have 3000 active agents.

  65. Avatar Robit Gurung says:

    wanted to ask if – getting a property at a young age with mortgage and renting it out is a good way?

    • Avatar Graham Stephan says:

      Leave a message through my Gmail grahamstephan04 for inside tips and guidance

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  68. Avatar Jeferson Famor says:

    Hey Graham, I’m a 17 y/o fan from the Philippines and I really want to be a Real Estate Agent someday. But is it possible to be a real estate agent in the US as a Foreigner?

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  69. Avatar Modern Millennial says:

    When home sale volume and prices eventually return to normal levels will this cause a wave of homes under water because people are buying so high now?

  70. Avatar Abraham Atta says:

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  71. Avatar f. f. white says:

    Why sell when you dont have to pay your mortgage? Live for free and wait for the fed to bail you out!

  72. Avatar Tyroneious Lamar Brown says:

    is it a good time to become a real estate agent?

  73. Avatar Money Mindset says:

    90% of all MILLIONAIRES become so through owning real estate!

    • Avatar LunarX says:

      Which is why they need to be taxed higher rates for making it harder for the average person to own a home.

  74. Avatar Mikael Finstad says:

    that editing at 1:42

  75. Avatar LunarX says:

    So basically the housing market is fine and we’re all screwed? Cool. Great.

  76. Avatar Bionic Al Drives says:

    Even with high prices, its good to lock one in at a low interest rate right? Because the price of a drop will likely not outweigh the discount on interest over time?

  77. Avatar ProdigyGaming says:

    First one

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  79. Avatar JULIEMICHELREALTOR says:

    Graham I agreed inventories are low, interest rates are at an high time low, and buyers are looking to take advantage of the low interest rates. However I’m noticing right now a lot of buyers want to wait until the market crash so they can get a better deal… I just want to say that if you don’t have cash readily available to grab those properties once that time comes, you might end up losing out..

  80. Avatar quietsignal says:

    You could have bought a 1.5 million McMansion in the very hot Scottsdale market with none of the new build headaches. The future of Vegas is questionable. Who the hell wants to live there?

  81. Avatar Le Weiwei says:

    Even without the crash of foreclosures, there will still be a huge wave of inventory, that will drive the price down due to supply and demand

    • Avatar Essien Asu fati says:

      Did you want to invest

  82. Avatar Austin Eaton says:

    I wanted to dislike this video. The title was very misleading, but I agree with much of your speculation on the 2021 real estate market.

    • Avatar Pilot Lucas James says:

      Are you a trader

    • Avatar Austin Eaton says:

      @Pilot Lucas James I am not. I’m a Realtor

  83. Avatar Luxury Homes says:

    Wonderful Video!!! 💪💪 Love your videos!! 😊

  84. Avatar Mike Anderson says:

    Real estate will go up 1) Interest rates low 2) US printing tons of money 3) Job growth coming

  85. Avatar David Long says:

    There will be consequences of 1/2 the small businesses in the country closing. They employ 70% of Americans. Not sure how long it will take, but it WILL affect the real estate market.

  86. Avatar Shawn Warnick says:

    At this point i dont think it is collapsing anytime soon.

  87. Avatar Iliya Mor says:

    I heard the same in 2015, 2017, 2018 and before.
    HEARD, Not HAVE HEARD, because it remained in the past.
    Another conspiracy on real estate prices.

  88. Avatar F R says:

    Can it be that people can not afford to pay their mortgage so they are going to stay in the home until they officially lose their homes due to evictions? I would like to see the amount of people who are behind in their payments and will lose their homes very soon

  89. Avatar Jeremi Santo says:

    Will things be cheaper my mom is looking for a house

  90. Avatar Mark Ferguson - InvestFourMore says:

    It takes on average 800 days to foreclose on a house. That wave will take a very long long time. I have been an investor and agent for almost 20 years. I was an REO agent in the last crash and things are so much different now.

  91. Avatar metallifreak100 says:

    Damn fed needs to raise the interest rates. They have artificially increased housing prices. I’m looking to buy with mostly cash, at most a 15 year mortgage for the remainder. These low interest rates don’t help me.

    Of course, we live in a country that only rewards spending, not idiots like me who save apparently. These low interest rates on CDs have forced me to invest more and more into the stock market and precious metals. Not that it is a terrible thing to do that, but I should be able to get a 2.5% yearly return on long-term CDs for a safe investment.

  92. Avatar Knockk Knock says:

    Graham, is Columbus Ohio a good place to buy an investment property to rent out? Duplex’s going for 50k. I live in Seattle with one investment property.

  93. Avatar Adcotron EMS says:

    They are just printing money to fix this problem that they have created and that can’t be a good thing.

  94. Avatar Christian Romero says:

    So don’t go buying a wedge in 2021?

  95. Avatar slapaho50 says:

    There is no collapse!!!!!!!

  96. Avatar Drive And Thrive says:

    Definitely taking this advice and using it for my future.

    • Avatar Graham Stephan says:

      Appreciate

    • Avatar Graham Stephan says:

      Leave a message through my gmail realgrahamstephan for inside tips and guidance

  97. Avatar B Wise says:

    I hate this guy’s thumbnails they are so exaggerated and over the top, equivalent to a click bate smh

  98. Avatar joann Loves CountryLife says:

    How’s Vegas house going?….new video coming

  99. Avatar Nick J says:

    So many ads on your video huge turn off

  100. Avatar Ken Marshall says:

    Too many commercial now man you are getting a bit greedy however I’d likely do the same thing.

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