Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, lays out the possible future economic impacts of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
EU likely to announce embargo on Russian oil, says Berenberg chief economist
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What if Russia decides to stop supply all together with immediate effect? Europe will be painfully impacted. Sanctions don’t work as previously thought
@melania bettarelli Contracts between private companies. An export ban – or a 1000% tax on exports to be prepaid by the buyer – would be political measures.
@Thomas Tomiczek I have just say that- didn’t I ?
@melania bettarelli no, you were trying to say contracts “aren’t political” while they very much are
@Kunal Adhikari no, I didn’t say contracts “cannot be political” – at all. Quote me and point to precisely were I said that or how my writing mislead you – Also, if you have a point, by all means make it
Yes effective 2025.
What is likely is Germany still funding billions of dollars to evil Putin Russia invasion of Ukraine 🇺🇦. 16 years under Angela Merkel done nothing to solve this issue of energy dependent on Russia oil and gas. And Ukraine 🇺🇦is fighting Putin Russia for EU.
The West should just stop funding Russia’s genocide. Run Russia into the ground and do humanity a favour. Make them eat Ukrainian style Borscht every day to remind them of their place in the world.
Losing some incomes will help reduce more bleeding. Please be kind, be nice and be patient!
But we have people to fed. If my people lost their job and starve they will overthrow me
Europe is entering a dichotomy phase. We will be facing , in the short term, higher inflation and slower growth. There is considerable uncertainty about how large these effects will be and how long they will last for,” said Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, while speaking last week at an event in Cyprus. “The longer the war lasts, the greater the costs are likely to be.”The extreme circumstances are putting EU institutions and national governments under enormous pressure to deliver fast and tangible solutions for workers and businesses.
Some country like Spain which has been one of the worst-hit by the months-long power crunch, with inflation reaching 9.8% in March. The worsening situation prompted the transport sector to organize a 20-day-long strike that caused many supermarkets and factories to run out of supplies.Lithuania will never survive long to tell the its economic success if Bigger economy like France an Germany collapse dues to high price liquefied gas or LNG!!
But while policymakers are rushing to offer relief measures, the war’s dramatic evolution is increasing calls for harsher sanctions against Moscow. Worst ,the counter sanction by Russia insistent on Rubles usage is taking a toils New reports of indiscriminate killings in Bucha, which happened to be staged by Ukraine ,a suburb northwest of Kyiv, has brought back to the table the potential embargo on Russian energy imports, a drastic proposal that would plunge the bloc into further economic chaos.
Germany, a country heavily dependent on Russian energy, is among the most reluctant countries to take such a radical step, fearing the shock would be too intense for its industry to handle. BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen are all wrestling with the ripple effects of the conflict.A total l ban on Russia could collapse Germany economy instantly ,which may not recover if the US imported liquefied natural gas, or LNG high That cost 3 to 5 time gas energy is used.
“German industry sees the risk of companies facing existential difficulties due to energy prices or because of a Russian halt to exports of energy raw materials,” said Joachim Lang, director-general of BDI, the federation of German industries!!
the US has plenty of crude and steel, the industries were just “subsidized” to shut down in favor of cheaper oil and steel from other countries. We’ve got plenty of natural resources, just like Ukraine, the pearl of Eastern Europe.
@AMERICAN MOVIE CHANNEL either you dont know economics and logistics or you’re just being a troll. 😂😂😂
Short term? Dude you guys will be facing long term higher costs. There is no way anyone else can supply cheaper energy.
This would be great news for poorer nation as poorer nation needs cheap Russian energy. India and China will be filling popcorn buckets at russian energy ban news.
🤣🤣🤣
No. The prices will skyrocket & other countries in the world would offer just as much as India & China for Russia gas. The whole world would be in an economic and political crisis caused by President Biden.
@Agata Sitko cheap yes. But in the long term they are growing economies. Whereas Europe will forever pay higher prices.
@Bul Thaosen I’m the long term people will not use gas or petrol.Russia will be than poor
@Agata Sitko *sigh* oil is used for more than electricity and cars you know. And we are not getting off oil for atleast another 50 years. Renewables might increase but they cannot replace oil and gas. Certainly not in developing nations.
@Bul Thaosen yes but we would need it much less and not only Russia sells it.Lots of countries are not allowed to sell,they always can get allowance,that’s all politics
If it is only just temporary, Why can’t be done?
Yes its temporary but it will last for years.
The full embargo on ruSSian fossil fuel would end this war in 2 months. ruSSia hooked Germany on its fuel artificially by bribing their politicians. France is energy independent due to de Gaulle reactors ( no problem with them in 50 years). Germany requested and received enhanced security from NATO in the context of ruSSian war of aggression against Ukraine. Germany also opposed Ukrainian NATO membership in 2008 and then Merkel blocked weapons for Ukraine. So it would be too cynical of Germany to resist Ukrainian NATO membership now and to keep buying ruSSian fuels thus subsidizing the war and ruSSian atrocities while NATO frees Germany from expenses for security against ruSSia and Ukraine bleeds keeping the gates of Europe and fighting the WWIII alone for us all. Hopefully the younger German politicians realize this and step in on behalf of Ukraine unlike the old corrupt crowd. But I am not sure about Scholz. His message seems promising but the future will tell. He must urgently issue an opinion in deeds not words. ruSSia gets a billion dollars PER DAY from sales of fossil fuels. The current sanctions closing the ports for ruSSian ships have loopholes exactly for these sales which must be closed. Take French example, build your reactors fast, the green dream of the future can only be the reality in a peaceful chaos free world which ruSSia destroys. Green denuking and disarming cannot work in the current situation. It is naive to think it is possible with such a war
Must bring results, the significant but tolerable reductions, “enough” to reduce funding Russian war machine, all helps.
Last month, an American murderer was executed in the electric chair. He had arrived in hell and wished to enter. The Devil told him that he would have to wait at least a year because they had been fully booked by Mr PUTIN personally 21 months ago for himself, The Oligarcghs and another 25.000 military personnel in Ukraine for War Cirmes.
Убийца из Америки был убит на электрическом стуле в прошлом месяце и прибыл в ад и хотел войти. Дьявол сказал ему, что ему нужно ждать минимум 12 месяцев, так как они были полностью забронированы господином ПУТИНЫМ лично 2,5 месяца назад для себя. и еще 25 000 военнослужащих в Украине для War Cirmes.
Why is the narrative that the one with the resources is at the mercy of those who only print paper and have nothing else besides fading economic momentum gained way back during the colonial era?
Russia can be cut off from the world and still maintain at least a 1980s level industrial society.
Japan, China, India and most countries in Europe (on their own) would go medieval, as they lack the resources.
The Middle East and South Asia (including China and India) would starve with their current population levels, as they lack the food.
@Magical Thinktank Russia and India have a very good relationship both geopolitical and in business. I dunno why this dude was trying to drag our countries name into this conversation, we will never not buy Russian oil as we have nothing to do with the situation in Europe lol.
If you think EU only prints paper then you must be out of your mind. EU is supremely industrialised.
@Relaxinjo Ronaldinho Germany comes to mind, the wunderkind of industrialization, yet they started both world wars because they realized that industrialization means shit without securing the resources for it to run on.
All of your logic is off. European countries would certainly suffer for lack of Russian resources, but that is not to say that they cannot switch suppliers. The resources will still be available, they will just be available at a higher price due to longer supply chains and more scarcity. That is not the same thing as saying that all supplies will disappear completely.
Bleed Russia Dry!
So funny how you are saying is going to be temporary!! How do you know is going to be temporary?? Since no one know when the war will end!! Why not focus on stopping the war simply?? Why destroying the whole world economy because of a war???
Lmao at EU nuking their whole economy. Europe is just paying the piper for having next to no military and relying on Russian oil. Enjoy euro boiiiiissssssszzzz
There is a difference between Trudeau and the Canadian citizen.
People will understand that, if you are honest with them.
As it is, you are treating them as if they can not think for themselves and need you to think for them. Insulting really. You are not the only ones born with a brain and you need to stop tree people like you were.
Give your voters the free due to them.
Look at what a mess you have made thinking and doing on their behalf. They will have to clean up all this mess.
But it shows you are not fit for purpose Trudeau and letting you carry on another day, would in fact destroy Canada, as opposed to giving you the pink slip.
Not proof read
…stop TREATING…
Give your voters the CREDIT due to them….
Russia doea not need the EU!! You glovalist bastards think you are on top pf the world!!
EU got played hard by the US lol
You right they all deluded
that’s usually the fate of a US vassal state.
A message to all the nations of the world:
Dear citizens of our wonderful planet Earth! I, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, decided to address all of you directly, bypassing diplomats, your rulers and journalists. In Russia, there is such a thing as “the time of surrender”, where you cannot lie, deceive and play. That’s why I’m going to be honest so everyone can check the truth of my words. Russia is a great and rich country. The main value is more than 150 peoples who live on a territory where justice is above all. We don’t need new territories. We have plenty of energy and all other resources. Since the time of the Great Tartaria and the Great Mogul, the peoples of northern European have evolved not because of looting in the crusade wars and colonization of America, Africa, India, drug addiction in China, but thanks to their hard work and peacekeeping. Those who know Russian understand that “Russian” is an adjective for all the peoples of our country. Russian Slovenians, Russian Tatars, Russian Jews, Russian Evenkas and so on are Russians in the soul, although their culture, language, lifestyle may differ. We salute this diversity of unity. Once again, the Russian people of Russia are forced to sacrifice their lives, protecting the world from Nazism and fascism. We exchanged 50 of our prisoners of war for 50 Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainian soldiers received medical assistance in our hospitals, ate three large meals a day and returned home. We received Russian soldiers with their fingers cut off and reproductive organs. Not even the Nazis did this during the last war. We will present these evidence in a future court. Shame on anyone who supports these scoundrels now. Your rulers in the United States, Europe, Japan, Australia and other countries have stood on the side of these subhumans, who have put civilians, pregnant women and children in front of them, intentionally harming prisoners of war. It’s hard for me to imagine a healthy, healthy person supporting these monsters. And your Bidens, Scholars, Macron and other dark-fashioned Democrats not only protect criminals, but also actively arm them, supply them with money, which is not enough to keep prices in your countries low. Prices are rising, the world is collapsing, but not because the Russians are cleansing Europe of Nazis evil spirits, but because you don’t watch and actually support a new wave of Nazism. This time we are not going to Berlin. We will stand on our historical borders, and all the Nazis evil spirits, to whom your rulers wide open, will arrange a new “crystal” life, as the Nazis did, adding reproductive organs circumcised. I appeal to all who want to live and work in peace, to raise children and to be friends with the nations of the world. Help Russia fight the new cancer – Ukrainian Nazism. Not Ukraine where peaceful and valuable people live, but Nazism, fed by hawks from the USA and NATO for your taxes. If your rulers support Nazism, chase them out three doors, take power into your own hands. Ukrainian Nazis protect themselves from bullets of civilians, their rulers, under the pretext of terrible Russia, also decided to transfer the burden of high prices and upcoming troubles to the population. Both in Ukraine and in you, Nazis live well behind the backs of ordinary citizens, and ordinary people should suffer – these are identical crimes in both Ukraine and the West. If we unite, then in another week there will be no Nazis in Ukraine, normal life will return to Europe, the USA and other countries, and together we will judge Ukrainian Nazis and all the rulers who support Nazism in the new tribunal. Our goal is the right one. We will defeat the nazism. I would like to share this win with everyone together as soon as possible. Our goal is the right one.
You have more support than you think . The people of the world support Russia.
That is so impossible at the moment, not a temporary recession at all, much longer than anyone can think, US is deceiving the world, then you have China and India and other countries are still gonna support Russia this will only hold if all countries would go that route, looking at Russia and if they take all of Ukraine all of what he is saying makes no sense, this will only give Russia enthuse enthusiasm to take all of Ukraine by force as they already started and get rid of the Zelensky regime , come to think of it look how many countries have US destroyed and nothing like this ever happens to them no sanctions no nothing …… A tell you about double standard at it best.
Russian oil gets to EU thru Ukraine pipelines. Ukraine’s economy depends on that revenue from allowing “Russian ” oil thru Ukraine.
A short recession is nothing compared to what is happening in Ukraine. Europe must stand against Putin.
$200 a gallon for oil
I wonder how many loopholes it will have and which countries will ‘creatively’ interpret it in a way that still allows them to get Russian oil. You know, the way the USA is still getting Russian oil.
How much is for show and how much is real.
You still getting it as the cut off is not until May?
С РОССИЙСКОЙ энергетикой будет все нормально! мы тоже ждем выборов,потому что контракты на поставки кончаются в конце месяца, будет новые санкции и тогда контр санкциями мы сами не будем поставлять энергию ,вам не кто не даст поэтапно !! , у нас есть уже куда её перенаправить!
You are yelling. You are panicking.
The price of oil is going to go through the roof.
$185 a barrel is a close prediction.
Welcome to Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Vietnam, Cuba, Venezuela, DRC, Somalia, Yemen, Palestine, West Irian, Haiti, Vietnam, Korea, Yugoslavia and now Ukraine!!!! US/NATO at work!
Russia is just as much at work in all these except perhaps Iraq and Yemen.
The U.K. is not part of Europe.
Anyone realizing how this is totally ignorant of Russia? As in: If the russians react FINALLY to all that sanction bullshit and say “prepay in gold, fulfill the contracts, OR GET NOTHING” then all those plans are utter crapshit and recession comes in HARD. Yes, you can easily make a ton of plans assuming the other side will just accept it and not at some point sit down and say “f*** you idiots, not dealing with you”, but this is as retarded as it gets. Keep poking the russian bear, and it may swat. Expecting this like on any other moment because this is way getting too far into “we are retards making plans” territory.
The EU’s self destruct button has clearly been pressed. For the little people anyway.
Вы свои санкции себе в задницу засуньте, может поумнеете! Кому вы делаете хуже? Только в вашей стране население страдает от высоких цен и отсутствия продуктов. У нас с продуктами все хорошо и цены нормальные. А вы своими руками доводите свои экономики до кризиса! У вас совсем ума нет. Мы не страдаем от ваших санкций. Быстрее бы ваш народ очнулся и надавал шольцам и макронам по шее.
e.u: embargo on Russian oil
e.u: buy u.s oil
u.s: buys Russian oil dirt cheap and resells to e.u
e.u filled with dumbF. I used to laugh about it but now it’s just plain annoying how stupid they are.
The reason why russia is not shutting off gases and oil going to europe because putin knows the Europeans will do it themselves and putin can now say we adhered to our contracts you cancelled it yourself. 😂 Putin is a real genius. While the west keep shooting themselves in the foot. Now the other foot lets wait till they shoot themselves in the head😂
We all seem to wonder why the origins of this Conflict that extend back to Victoria Neuland hiring Nazis to do Her dirty work, seem to be overlooked?
The Russians were simply evicting Nazis one more time.
The intentions of the CIA Guys seem much more sinister?
If you had to wait longer for a NEW car, it wouldn’t hurt people….at all.
We are screwed, by our own sanctions. Those living off grid will make it, for the rest of us – welcome 1939.
No, Ukraine is screwed by the failure to embargo oil sooner.
When you let virtue signaling implode your economy 😂
Putin sees the expansion of NATO to his border as an existential threat to Russia. But the West just keeps ignoring him. Instead of putting more weight on the shoulders of ordinary people, NATO can avoid conflict by simply saying that it won’t expand any further or just abolish NATO altogether.
Embargo will damage growth but a long war will damage growth. Get a spine and ration oil in US and EU.
ukraine war start in 2.24 oil price is higher 40% per bucket than before. the war cost nothing from russia maybe russia get some benefit from this war
The truth is that when someone is hungry, they become a thief. One of the examples is this.
Temporary, of course. May be 5-10 years of recession but then everybody will get use to it.
An accelerated move to renewables, less funding to the criminal Russian regime, higher fuel prices mean less carbon generated……. looks great
RUSSIANS WILL NEVER PAID ALL THESE CRIMES EVEN IF THEY COME BACK TO LIFE MANY TIMES. AS CRUEL GERMANS KEEP GIVING CRIMINAL PUTIN A BILLION DOLLARS DAILY BY GAS AND OIL
Look at what they are doing to Siberian indigenous to get all of that oil. Burning lakes from oil spills. Pollution… Not only that but a big nuclear accident back a few years ago.