#housing #realestate #yahoofinance
Realtor.com Senior Economist George Ratiu joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the U.S. affordability crisis, Fed tightening, rising rent & mortgage rates, and the state of the housing market.
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New normal. It will take time but RE prices must correct to reflect new “normal”.
100% they will be coming down
Not necessarily, it will take time but incomes must correct to reflect new “normal”. In 80’s rates were double digits, people still bought and real estate still much much higher today. You have to consider all variables in affordability formula
@Dmitry G It is inevitable. The new “normal” just started.
Investors attempt to use Real Estate as a hedge against a downturn eating their profits?
Take the lucky winnings and invest in Subdivisions…….Right?
Now that Home buyers await the deflation sucking the cost out of home ownership,
the wait for the bottom in that marketplace is putting the smart shoppers who bought at inflated prices, are watching as their investments appear to be evaporating?
Real Estate appears to be the Deflation that Cathie Wood was mentioning?
I can’t wait for all those investors to dump their labor-intensive rentals, which will soon be cash-flow negative, for the safety of treasuries paying 4%+ with no effort. That should increase inventory somewhat.
@Elizabeth Blane Real Estate has cooled off a bit, but how long to wait for the bottom to buy?
This might be a bit of a sell off and prices might become attractive by spring?
That is the threat that Deflation introduces……
We shall see how it turns out?
These stories are so one sided, why don’t you say that RE prices will have to decline 50% to bring mthly pymts back to “normal”. Why don’t you talk about zero rates for 12yrs and how that plus unreal stimulus in the form of QE pushed RE prices to a level that cannot be sustained at normal interest rates.
@Dmitry G Real Estate prices will decline. The only people who I hear spin the “flat prices” are those trying to deny that their recent investment or those who thought the last few years of bubble prices was a sustainable thing. Anything that can go up, can go down. We still have a good amount of people in the denial phase. I’m just more amused that some people really though that their homes is worth 40%+ more than it was 2 years ago. Like it’s just unbelievable that prices could correct lol
@Tyler Campbell Perhaps government printing 40% more currency had something to do with it?
That would be too close to the dangerous truth and they wouldn’t let him say that stuff on TV. He has to lie to keep his job, but we all know what’s really happening.
@Dmitry G Bingo. That’s it. They “inflated” the money supply, which inflated all assets classes.
@Tyler Campbell this is possibly true, but 95% of buyers are focused on the monthly payment for housing. In most markets today outside of a 50-60% decline in price those who bought over the last 4 years will not be able to find a housing payment for equal value. Most who bought in the $300-$400k range with a 3% mortgage have lower payments then rents in most areas. Our society is fundamentally different after crime has spiked in city centers. People are fleeing to suburban areas for better quality of life. If everyone believes that things will return 100% to normal hybrid work will go away and crime will disappear then yes prices will decline drastically. I do t expect that. California and New York will continue to have outward migration putting additional pressure on southern states and Midwest. FED is expecting 175k job cuts per month coming. 200k boomers are retiring monthly. That will likely keep job markets a float.
Prices of homes should be dropping much faster. We as potential buyers need to band together and not buy until these prices come down at least 40%. That 40% only offsets the past two or three year gains.
@Jamison Munn I agree with you. Once they find out they can earn 4% in treasuries, with no effort, they will dump their labor-intensive rentals.
@Dad E Mack Large sfh investors here in SWFL are not able to rent out their homes. They are sitting for months due to very high rental prices because the investors paid way over market value. Investors will be flooding the market before long due to negative cash flow.
100% agree, stop buying and the prices will drop.
There is a serious opportunity cost as well that rarely gets mentioned. With the stock market, and thereby people’s assets, tanking who wants to sell assets to come up with the down-payment? And if I use my cash to purchase a home I’ll miss the market rebound that’ll come sooner than later (18 months?). I, and many other buyers, are likely better off sidelining our cash and riding a market upturn than tying up that money in a house.
@Jamison Munn If you want lower prices, then you probably would like the supply shortage fixed. That would require eliminating low density zoning and blocking less construction proyects.
“Eventually society will have to knowledge homelessness is a nation within the nation.” W. Jones
Acknowledge *
Was planning to sell my central Phoenix house for about $550k but now I’m switching to renting for about $2200/mo net. That’s a good return when I add appreciation which I expect in the future. I have created a small apartment in my house which I can stay in and/or planning a move to SE Asia where my expected rent for a similar place would be $400-600/mo. US real estate has always been a decent investment but it’s looking even better in the future.
Rental interest rates 80%
Stupid federal this only pushes people to rent and makes rent more expensive
I wouldn’t be shocked if rates for a 30 year get to 10%. Their goal is to cripple the housing market and force a deep recession to correct the economy (in the feds opinion)
Ok, home prices are declining everywhere and its only getting started people. Im a lender and seen rates at 7% by yearend. They need to fire these half ass economist.
there not only declining there are millions of people on the west coast that have seen there home values drop in the 10-18% since april i speak as one i saw my old home go from 1.2million in a suburb 70 miles east of san francisco down $180,000 thats a crash its not yet rivaling 1929 or 2008 but its already in #3 spot in history just fyi
@brian oleson Yes, and the crash has not even started yet.
@Elizabeth Blane nobody wants to believe it they think everything will hold this time
@brian oleson Out of curiosity, what part of the East Bay are you seeing prices go down?
@Elizabeth Blane im pretty sure its in every city in california just about ive looked in brentwood, ca (down somewhere around 14-18%) and sacramento area
Another .75 this November 🚀
Renters and homebuyers will begin dropping off in droves as inflation and layoffs continue to rise.
I might be reaching here but it sounds to me like you want layoffs to continue
Yeah!!🤑
Purchased a home in 2002 at the then prevailing rate of 6%. Refied a couple times over 20 years. Purchased a home in 1987 at 9%. People acting like 6-7% is some kind of calamity is comical but it speaks to the overpriced housing market, wage stagnation and affordability and peoples overall financial condition. The economy cant seem to function without cheap money.
@Wile E Coyote First off, just because interest rates were that high in the 80’s doesn’t mean its worth referencing as a normal. It’s an anomaly, just like 1-2% was for this era. Boomers always bring it up without taking into consideration that homes were dirt cheap.
@Tyler Campbell yes, basically they thought housing was good investment given low interest rate. Thankfully that would change now.
@Tyler Campbell Actually, the fact that houses were so much cheaper makes paying 8% OK. 7% was considered a normal interest rate, but people could afford it because the prices were so much lower. My first house cost $38,000 and the interest was 9.25%; the payment was around $325 a month, including PITI. I put down 20%, which was $8,000, and that was tough. In the last 14 years, money has become almost worthless because of the Federal Reserve printing trillions of dollars which destroy our currency and cause these boom and bust cycles. Homes were cheaper; let’s say that money was worth something; unlike today.
Mortgage rates should be offset by lower loan amounts, with prequalification to borrow being the fulcrum. Unfortunately, the house flippers and speculators and REITs still want their pound of flesh so they are the ones that are complaining mightily, every percentage point is like a stab to the heart… whereas you and I just want to buy a home we can qualify for! I am still mystified where they find buyers and renters who can pay these prices… maybe the throngs of homeless gives the lie to that, they can’t find them. Real estate is real estate… but this seems to be generational… only the Gen Xers would ever think of this kind of sociopathic behaviorwas normal… now they are eating it!
this is not the first time the Fed has messed up with interest rates… someone here referenced the 18-20% rates of the early 1980s…that almost destroyed the real estate industry but it still sold houses because many hometown banks were lending from their own portfolios and jumped at the chance to win big, but as the secondary market for mortgages and third party servicing merged, those rates disappeared. My sense is that with rock bottom interest, the only way for banks to make money on interest is to write gigantic loans. Meanwhile, the time-honored practice of savings accounts stopped making sense. Might as well spend it, right? Who has been running this ship????
So house prices will not fall, owners can rather rent insteed loosing home to bank.
Hahaha, Most home owners don’t have the income to qualify for a second mortgage and keep their existing home and buy a new one, much less the cash to buy outright.
Plus – if everyone decided to rent their homes, a supply glut of rentals would crash the rental market.
Rental market is on the decline. Layoffs are only starting.
Okay, so that means the rental market will crash which will spur an even lower demand for home buyers. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
housing market Bubble and bubbler and bubbler..
Ha ha! “Affordability crisis?” Housing prices are what they are because people CAN afford them, not because they can’t! When they are “unaffordable” then they will be vacant until the price drops enough so they are rented or bought.
@Dmitry G when rates dropped to 0.25% prices shot up. You think that was coincidence?
@Dmitry G LMAO…bro your investment bias is showing.
@Tyler Campbell When they printed 40% more currency prices shot up. Do you think that was a coincidence?
Look at your local median and average home price. If your home is below that mark, prices will be fairly stable. If you are above it, expect prices to collapse.
Interest rates and asset prices move inversely, and while a home is also essential for shelter, people will not pay anywhere near the same amount for an above-average priced home in a 7.5% interest rate environment as they would in a 2.8% interest rate environment.
Add in all the new building in pandemic boom towns in the sunbelt, I expect continued 2-3% month-over-month price declines in the above-average homes in these markets over the next 12 months – which annualizes to 24-36% declines.
30-yr fixed 7.633%
15-yr fixed 6.647%
10 / 6 ARM 7.319%
here is the actual numbers-
The American Dream is becoming more and more unattainable for the working and middle class. Sad
Thank nimbys for making housing unaffordable.
South East Florida – the home prices went down slightly but the prices are still double of what was there in 2019.
Same here in Oahu, Hawaii.
Which means it has further to fall. You all are super impatient
Biden and the Dems destroyed everything smh
the growing homeless everywhere…
If sellers can’t make double what they paid for the house they just hold on to it, they expect to become rich from selling their house now a days since it was the normal thing a 6 months ago
I bought my home in 1989 in Clark NJ for $150K at 9%. I sold said house in November 2001 for $190K. Had to pay 10K to broker. This after home had all new windows,new roof, 2 new baths and central A/C unit installed after purchase. So actually didn’t make a dime. Today as you said they buy a house for $300K,don’t put a dime into it and sell 4 months later for $500K. How does that make any sense?
That ain’t happening anymore. It’s now musical chairs and the music has stopped. It was FOMO; now it’s FOGS (fear of getting stuck). At some point, the panic will begin. Just watch.
@Wile E Coyote because money is fake
Isn’t it just common sense that you let 9,000 immigrants in a day and cut supply that houses would continue to rise in cost, therefore increasing inflation? That’s just breaking things down to simple concepts.
Whatever the cause of demand, allowing the construction that is demanded is necessary. Even if an appartment is demanded within a suburb, it should be allowed. If not, demand won’t be met.
44% = 72% of take home. F***** nuts! The housing crisis high in 2007 max was 34%. Let that sink in and you’ll see what’s coming…
Decades before Joe Biden it was increasingly harder to keep a roof over your head and Biden has made it impossible for millions.. thanks you Biden voters !!
Sellers need to lower their prices or pay down the the rate of any offer to get a deal – cheap rentals coming 23- onwards as deleveraging takes its toll on housing. What goes up
Sad that American population has not realized that big corporations and business in general is the main factor here .
Look at wages and how they compare to home values decade over decade .
Everything goes up except your wages .
Profits up
Shareholder profit up
CEO / Management wages up
The average Joe / consumer are the ones losing
@Couloir I understand supply and demand. I also understand shareholder capitalism. Another thing I understand are corporations sitting on record profits, shareholders cashing in big, wages barely moving in decades, CEO pay being close to 1400% of the workers. I also understand when I’m being lied to and when I’m getting reamed in a rigged game.
@A 1 Oh I see what you’re trying to say. Maybe balance out the pay scale and widen the middle class? Currently the pay scale is highly rewarded not just to the CEO but certain non-management pay such has software engineers. FAANG software engineers are getting paid upwards of 500K a year. Thats why houses in Silicon Valley (and other high tech cities) are crazy high. However I still believe if you give more people will spend more driving up prices in a goods…aka inflation. Government decided to print more money during covid and give people money in their pockets. Again…classic example of give more spend more (inflation).
That is set to reverse.
@Couloir There is a housing shortage because supply hasn’t been allowed to meet demand for decades. So thank nimbys for the high prices.
I guess it’s a good thing I’m paying 0% APR for my home 🤔
It is not affordability crisis! $2600 avg monthly payment is not that much. Last year it was just $1700 which what it was 30 years ago!
Yes. We would like to see improvements on the supply side like your guest mentioned, but can we reasonably expect builders to build more when high interest rates are crushing demand?
Builders were failing at meeting housing demand ever since 2008, this isn’t a recent development. All those years of easy money didn’t matter.
@Jaystyr424 Yes, obviously. But when builders realize that demand will artificially decrease due to higher interest rates that reduce buyers’ purchasing power, then builders do not have incentive to build more supply.
@Marcus Aurelius Agreed. And higher interest rates discourage builders even more from creating more supply.
@Jeff Olsen, CPA Why would builders risk increasing homes when everything is still inflated? Labor is still short? And rates are high and still increasing?
Builders aren’t doing that anymore. They’re building and keeping pace with demand.
@Jeff Olsen, CPA Allowing higher density everywhere and protecting it from being blocked would certainly help.
So the intentional mortgage rate increases are having the desired effect.
Do we need reminding that this was the ACTUAL REASON the fed increased rates?
The artificially suppressing of interests rates is what started this mess to begin with lmao
RV time baby
Interest Rates are still quite low by historical standards. High Prices are the issue, not rates or supply. Prices need to revert to means.
The Fed is set to continue raising rates by .75% in Nov and this will continue for a good while. Anyhow, interest rates are only low compared to the early 80s.
@damnjustassignmeone 1993 7.5%
correct
Says who you? Sound like a bank when you say rates aren’t the problem but high home prices.
It’s like saying I’d rather pay more to banks than homeowners
@Gator Gatorif a person pays down an extra $500/mth is it better for the principal to be higher or lower?
Prices rocketed up when rates dropped to 0. Do you want affordable housing or not? How are you profiting from real estate?
The only people to get ahead with higher prices are landlords, not homeowners. It’s a net zero sum for everyday homeowners. Renters are being screwed. If you actually care about people, then you want lower prices.
If there were any word worse than crisis that is what housing right now would be. And yeah any having a heart towards crypto, get into it for real. you don’t start things and not finish, you don’t quit. There’s nothing that comes out of quitting besides knowing that you didn’t finish.
We finish everything. You start it, finish it! do it to try and be the best not being better than other people, be the bet for You. Get a broker, struggle together and you’ll get there in no time.
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……👆
Median home price 420 ? That’s has to be sign
biggest sellers will be the feds not tye average buyers back in 2020 nd 2019 or even before
Another issue people don’t discuss is the American expectation to be a home owner. You are not entitled to own a home because you want it. We have seen and will continue to see companies and investors buying up homes. The wealthy has no problem making everyone else renters. I say this because I think people have the idea that prices have to drop so they can afford a home. That narrative is changing.
@Tyler Campbell I’m not worried about a correction at all. If prices come down investors will simply buy more both in stock market and real estate because they’re not driven by fear and have a long term outlook. In long-term prices will be higher. So it’s better not to wait to buy rather buy something you can afford today and wait. 90% of commenters are negative, I’m simply providing an alternative point of view for consideration.
@Dmitry G Investors don’t wan’t purchase overvalued assets. They also don’t want to show year over year losses on their books. If other investments have a better return such as bonds, then that’s where the money will go. Many project that we are going to experience several years of real price decline, with at least 1-2 years of decline in nominal terms.
@Tyler Campbell That’s true also real investors are investing for decades not for one or two years. Bonds may pay higher interest rates going forward but they don’t come close to what real estate has to offer long term. If prices go down, investors will buy more when assets are on sale. In long-run any hard asset will be a good investment
@Dmitry G A real investor would know that not every investment is a sure bet guarantee of gains.
American housing is for investors and money launderers to play Monopoly. Working Americans like myself come in dead last.
junk news
Build more 🏡.
enjoying alot of equity in there homes another bs on these shows 😉 some markets homes are down 17% if that home was $900,000 its down 140,000 dollars
Don’t worry; it’s only a paper loss. The value will go back up again even higher next year, ha ha.
It’s time to stop spending so much on the elderly. The young can’t afford houses or kids but we are giving obese boomers 100,000$ hip replacements paid for by the young that fund Medicaid for the elderly.
Higher Higher
Burn baby burn
Can’t wait for my turn to make $$$
Backwards looking is going to hose some people out
lol they should just build more houses. Not crank interest rates. our issues are supply side related.
Actually, REventure Consulting has done a video about that and proved that there is no lack of inventory.
@Elizabeth Blane It is supply related. Houses are inefficient. We have too many houses and not enough apartment buildings. If there were apartments where there are houses the cost living would be a lot cheaper.
But investors want to believe charging 400k for a 3br/1ba unit with a garage is logical.
Most people don’t need that and certainly can’t afford it. An emergence of apartment buildings would have stopped this years ago but everyone wants a slice of a pie that doesn’t exist.
@Elizabeth Blane link?
@Henry Tse Or if YouTube won’t allow the link, you can find it if you search: Inventory is EXPLODING (2022 Housing Crash Getting WORSE)
@Elizabeth Blane Vacancy isn’t the same as no shortage as housing demand droped because of interest rates. There is still an affordability problem that only higher supplies can solve, which isn’t allowed by some regulations and nimbys.
landlords are 100% to blame for this we need rent control
all of that is your opinion and subjective, the fact is rents are up well over 10% nationally year of year with tax increases and expendetures coming no where near that. Landlords can make any excuse they want whether it be the market or what have you to push working or disabled people onto the streets or into their cars for rent increases, the fact is until we cap the cost of rising rents this will only continue to happen which is why we need rent control so we don’t continue to see the massive increase in homelessness and poverty due to landlords CHOOSING of their own freewill not because any market forced them to, to push people into homelessness.
@Jacob Napkins Rents are up; that is a fact; we don’t disagree on that. You are a little naive thinking it’s all due to greedy landlords. You fail to see and understand some larger forces at work, namely the Federal Reserve. How about you do a little research on that.
@Elizabeth Blane even with rates up 8 percent and all other factors which 8 percent is rounding up by the way and most of that comes out of your tenents pocket plus many aren’t even that high to begin with but even if we pretend that all those things aren’t the case well over 10% is still much higher there’s no excuse other than greed, but calling it greed is too good a term for the shear amount of people being pushed into poverty and homelessness by landlords there’s much better words that suit them and any just society would have people going to their politicians and demanding rent control to protect the working class from predatory gouging.
@Jacob Napkins Well, my mortgages were paid off many years ago, so high mortgage interest rates don’t apply in my case. I agree with you that people are suffering needlessly, but you again are not looking in the right place. You need to add a little nuance to your understanding, Jacob. Landlords have much more to contend with than just mortgage interest. They have principal, property taxes, state and federal income taxes, insurance, repairs, improvements, landscaping, septic, HOA fees, cleaning up after bad tenants, vacancy costs, etc. You seem to think that the central planner’s tool of rent control will be the magic wand that will solve the suffering of people who cannot pay high rents. You should try being a landlord for a few decades so you can get some perspective.
@Elizabeth Blane even with all that we have the numbers average landlords income as of August was still 2.4% higher than the national average and much higher than the national renters average solely from “unearned income” so that’s not including their other jobs if they have them all of the things you mentioned are factored into my above comments
7 percent still low, look up the interest rate in the 80’s.
Housing shortage is almost entirely the fault of investors buying multiple homes only to rent them out.
This really isn’t true. We’ve built fewer houses than needed since the 2008 recession.
@damnjustassignmeone false on every account
@AntoneATK Then why is there a supply shortage? Do you think all that single family zoning and obstructions for construction don’t affect supply and prices?
@Jonatan D couldn’t possibly be the 1 in 3 homes bought by investors
@AntoneATK Maybe in part, but that is what they do. If property is so sought after by inverstors, allowing construction would burst their bubble.
Well now that all the millionaires and corporations bought everything what do you think will happen ? 🤣
High home prices are the issue, these sellers are disgusting for what they are doing to people.
An issue caused by nimbys and obstructive regulation.
I wonder if they understand that as rates go up landlords have to charge more rent to cover their payments and tenants have no chance to buy because the mortgage is too expensive. High rates have brought down prices but it will be a long time before prices will come down enough and they are just raising and not waiting for that to happen. Owners go too drunk on thinking that their net worth was so high because their home value was overinflated that they can’t see selling for less and likely won’t for a year or two.
Why would landlords have to increase rent over mortgage rates going up? Most are likely locked into a rate for 15 or 30 years. My mortgage rate doesn’t change just because the rates for new mortgages are going up.
Biden turned this ship around, alright! The orange man isn’t that bad, is it?
5:20 the Fed is as sharp on economics as the President is on leadership.
They are doing what they have to in order to correct 10 years of economic addiction to cheap money.
The fed should keep raising interest rates until we get some major market corrections, hold until those corrections have made their way through the economy then increase rates again in pursuit of market rate.
why are the rents going up?? if the apartments cost haven’t gone up ?? its just greed
Probably due to the fed rates. However the root cause of high prices is that the demand for housing has not been allowed to be supplied by nimbys and regulations.
Just wait until 2023 to see all big city full of homeless. The FED are losing big money as the banks toO. People can’t afford house in any way, rents will increase, and foreclosure will be at high points in 2023, just wait for the BIG NIGHTMARE. Plus last quarter US Economic lost 6 trillion dollar by the end of the year us economic will lose 16 trillion dollar internal product.
I imagine the rising rates of homelessness will benefit the family court system which will likely remove children from their parents due to homelessness.
In my area listing & selling prices shot up 40% over the past two years. It was obviously unsustainable and a bubble. Sellers who bought before 2020 can still see a nice return on their homes, they just have to temper expectations and be satisfied with an overall 10-15% profit. As I look at listings I can see it already happening. Those long-time home owners will be the ones to reset the market and they take their profits and put pressure on the market.
when middle class can’t afford housing we have BIG problems
Buy now! Best time to buy before interest rises to over 12%.
It seems that is impossible to create correction when the demand outpaces supply. Especially since rates affect builders as well. Not only does the effect on buyers effect them but also the cost to build homes.
Absolutely David. They’re trying to reduce home prices when almost everything else is still high. It cost builders lots of money to build and now they’re just supposed to give those houses away?
Obviously, the Fed is achieving one of their objectives. To run over these markets, housing is not an exemption.
Build more competition for builders, prices will go down. 👍
Bring the house down!
I’m sick of this “sky high mortgage rates” business. They’re not high, they’re historically average. The price of a damn house, however, is sky high. Lets talk about how the market needs correction, not more Fed stimulus.
How did you not anticipate mortgage rates rising to these levels or beyond? What kind of economics did you study? Come on now this is elementary knowledge.
Meanwhile, the top .1% owns about 32 trillion, the top 1% owns about 43 trillion, the top 10% owns about 93 trillion, and the bottom 50% owns about 4 trillion. Welcome to oligarchy folks. Democracy is dead.
I think rates will hit over 12% again
I’ve been following you since 2020 and you’ve become one of the most trusted channels I watch. We know that mortgage rates are rising and reducing the purchasing power of those looking to invest. It’s important to understand that purchasing power doesn’t really reflect the real estate market. So if a buyer in 2020 could afford a $4,000 monthly payment that might have gotten them a $600,000 home, that same payment by that family today might just be able to buy a $500,000 home. give dollars. Does this mean the Long Island housing market is down? no But it means buyers have to accept that reality. When people started telling me that house prices will never go down and that I’m stupid to wait… I knew waiting was the right thing to do. Homes in my area are 200-300k above pre-pandemic prices. Something has to give way, either we have low interest rates and rising home prices or high interest rates and falling home prices. We cannot have both high rates and high home prices. You need to invest today because your money is more valuable today than it will be in a year. Investing should always be a process over time, but when you’re in a high-inflation environment and the Fed is aggressively tightening monetary policy, it’s undoubtedly riskier to invest in stocks, but you need to pay attention to the disciplines that matter to help you navigate through what is generally a more volatile time. Even within stocks, you might want to move into areas that generally fare better in higher inflation, like the crypto market, which I’ve been involved with. I made over 16.3 BTC with 4.5 BTC from day trading using the trading signal from my investment advisor. Mr. Brooks Harrison. Its insights and trading signal bring a good return on investment. The teaching is like a parable and clear to the wise. This is one of the best tools to protect your wealth when it starts to decline. Contact him at ͲeIєɠɾαm @Brooksharrison…
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It’s always about lowering interest rates, the PRICES need to be slashed in half… but housing is no longer shelter it was turned into financial collateral to over leveraged casinos (hedge funds) and over leveraged citizens that borrow against equity.
Global Depression on the way. Worse than 2008.