In this video, we will discuss some potential causes or catalysts for the next recession. The United States economy has experienced more than a decade of consistent growth. As you may know, it can be incredibly difficult, and nearly impossible to accurately predict recessions.
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Tesla too strong for a crisis right now
@Nate O’Brien I actually agree I am considering to short the weaker industries. OLD tech like ibm/HP, expenive airline companies, maybe some spanish/french/greek banks and my gamble short Facebook. I see FB becoming dated but too early to short it know. 🙂
Tesla is risky it can definelty blow up by growing to fast or it becomes the next amazon/microsoft/apple etc
I was actually thinking of buying some Tesla stocks today, but went for Mastercard instead, seems to be a more stable and reliable investment.
Nothing is too big to fail
Nobody expected Lehman brothers to go under in 2008, but they did
Nate O’Brien Oof Tesla in the hole now
The best time period to invest for is FOREVER. Although I run 3 portfolios with 3 time horizons on them (short, medium, long-term) at the end, the numbers don’t lie. The stock market hasn’t shown losses for any period of 20 years or longer in the history of the stock market. Now those are some promising numbers. If you combined these with a strong budget sheet that tells you exactly when and how much you can put away for how long – you got yourself a bulletproof strategy that won’t care if there’s a recession or not.
Interesting strategy
Yes please recession come now so I don’t have to deal with a bad economy when I get out of college
Thats not how it works bro, recession can last for decades
There are so many things up in the air right now which could be the catalyst behind a recession! Trade Wars with China, uncertainty around BREXIT, Government debt at silly numbers, even the over exaggerated Coronavirus. We’re certainly due a recession from a historical POV… very interesting times ahead! Appreciate you sharing your knowledge & perspective Nate.
Some good info…surprised you didn’t talk about how emotional the market is or how 9/11 on the back of the dot.com bubble deepened the issues. Cash is king in a recession and even though a recession can be relatively short according to strict definitions, the effects continue to roll though the economy for a long time. In the last recession it was six long years. The market peaked at 17133 in Oct 2007 and didn’t reach that level again until October of 2013…very few modest or institutional investors came out well from that recession. Lots of factors affected people personally and those millions who had to declare bankruptcy in the years following the last recession are just now coming out of that with no retirement, no assets and in a world of hurt.
Dee Burks Yes Dee! I feel like people don’t talk enough about the psychology of the market. Also the anthrax mail attacks immediately after 9/11 that were scary too. There was so much insecurity at that time…people around Nate’s age weren’t old enough to be aware of the extent of it.
Some younger folks comment on some people who said they go wiped out their 401k during the last recession because if they stayed the course they would much better off now. But what they fail to consider is that most don’t have even a $1,000 in an emergency fund and would have likely pulled out that money to survive if they also lost their jobs. Or the panic that media perpetuates makes you sell at the near bottom. I knew one lady close to retirement age who cashed out when it dropped 40% as she was scared it would be gone completely. I ignored the noise that time around and am in a better position now.
Great video! Even with my basic understanding of economy, I can see that polish interest rates are concerning to say the least. And the housing market is skyrocketing already. Looking forward to your next video, it would be great to know what are these safe options to invest into.
Thanks! Video coming later in the week!
@AussieMoneyMan Looking at his name it is very probable. And speaking about Polish housing market makes it almost certain.
I’m Polish too, BTW
You are just 21 and you are so smart and handsome..
Thanks for all of this uusefull informaton. I always learn something for you. Keep on educating me the way you do.
I am just a follower from poor Bulgaria.
Thank you for the kind words. Haven’t been to Bulgaria yet
Come and take me out of here
@Zornitsa 😁😅😂
@farral 😂😂😀🖒
A downturn is indeed anticipated but it would be nothing as nasty as the ’08 meltdown.
@MrHarveyjoseph Actually, due to QE programs, the economy is awash with cash. The ’08 financial crisis was a black swan event triggered by sub-prime mortgage abuse. Nothing of the same scale exists now. Student loan defaults? Maybe, but I doubt that it will cause the freezing of the financial markets as CDOs toxic loans did previously. I only expect a normal correction.
Ashfaq Sheikh But why? It was cheap money supplied by the Fed and Fanny Mae/Freddie Mac guaranteeing mortgages that blew the bubble in the housing market. All the banks that should have failed? Many got bailed out and are now bigger than ever. They were essentially rewarded by the govt for being reckless. All the QE from the Fed to “stimulate” the economy? Blew bigger bubbles in the stock market and other markets. Government guaranteeing student loans? Big bubble that will pop. No one has any savings for an economic downturn, everyone is drowning in credit card debt, mortgage debt, auto debt, student loan debt, government debt (!), etc. The economy never corrected itself… The govt, with the help of the Fed, simply “kicked the can” down the road with cheap money to postpone our day of reckoning. But the chickens will come home to roost and it will be painful!
this didnt age well
Nobody in Feb. 2020 knew that Coronavirus was coming. Now that we are battling with this unknown beast, all of us can agree that we are in for a long-drawn skanky recession which will be more hurtful than the ’08 downturn.
Ashfaq Sheikh I agree, I didn’t think it was a serious economic threat until March. Just crazy how much the world changed in just one month.
If a recession comes, I’m not going to participate in it.
I learned that from Rev. Ike’s teachings…serves me well.
isch das en witz? Han ez grad paar videos vo dem Typ ahglueged und chan gar nüt demit ahfange… und wie bitte wotsch vo de Rezession flüchte?
@Hans Nötig Nein. Es ist absolut kein Witz. Alle Anfänge sind schwer, aber wenn du zuhörst und *fühlst* , wirst du anfangen zu verstehen. So war es für mich.
Ich werde nicht vor irgendetwas fliehen. Like I said, I’m not going to participate. I will continue to live and invest and enjoy life, just like I did back in 2008 -2009. The vast majority of people were panicking, but people like me remained calm, kept buying and came out on top. I didn’t even know about Rev. Ike or any of the Prospertiy preachers back them, but I knew that I had to maintain my confidence and take the chance to buy low while everyone else was consumed with fear. You have to do the fearless thing if you want to prosper.
Nate ,you’re so inspiring ,you can’t imagine how much you’ve helped me .
I wish I could like and subscribe more than once to help you reach faster the 500k !
Thank you so so much!
Thank you so much Sarah, means the world to me
Thanks for delivering Economy 101. I feel I learned a lot from this video. I wish you could dig deeper into how to keep an eye on these causes, from what sources of information. Perhaps in future videos?
Hang on here Bucko . I subscribe to you and will continue too however , it only took me 3:45 to stop and comment on what you said thus far .
Watch it again and you will hopefully see/hear that you are basing what you are saying as speculation and speculation is what the far left has been doing . Just wait and see the “ Corona virus “ per capital , is minor compared to what is killing us all and the media is feeding on this like Cooko for Coco Puffs . And I see that you are also.
It is videos like this that is freaking people out because that is what Sheeple need to feed on. <———- bottom line . Bottom line ——————> Trump 20/20 <———————— bottom line . Things are different now because our Commander & Chief and even better than that , God is in control of everything . Peace
Great video, thanks! And yes, please do one on QE 🙂
What is the best way to understand what going on in the world as far as the Economy goes? Were do you get your news from?
There will be no recession in 2020. The idea is ludicrous.
you should write a book!!!!
I just might!
100%
Don’t buy and sell stock based on what some schmuck on CNBC said or on something you read on Yahoo Finance…
I agree with you Anthony! You gotta do your homework and not rely on others and make an impulsive decision
I hope someday you become a economics professor at a good university. I think you are well suited for that…
Thank you but I would likely need a Phd for that
Nate O’Brien when I went to college we had assistant professors that did all the same things as professors, but didn’t require a PHD. They had pay differences. I was a journalist major and My one professor never got a PhD. He had worked in television communications for many years prior so that was how he got his experience. It would be something I would recommend if you have a passion for teaching others, not as a career. The ones with the best advice all made their wealth elsewhere and used the career as a professor as a way to keep busy teaching others about your passions.
No, make content everyone can access 🙏🙏🙏😬🥺
There is NO CRISIS for people who always now how to sale and provide a lot of value to the people, those who knows how to create a delighted customer!!!
Exactly!
@Swiss Lady Driver Focus more on your SKILLS than Wall Street
@Money Chasing You I do and that’s why I always have something to invest.
@Swiss Lady Driver That is AWESOME, my friend!!
@Riley Griffith – Stock Market Videos Focus on what YOU can DO, (practical stoicism)
If only I could sell right before the recession and then buy everything when it goes on sale xD
@AussieMoneyMan I did say “if only” xD
I know I can’t time the market but more and more I am thinking it is time to see soon.
Sounds like the dream
AussieMoneyMan This time most wont have money to buy on sale.
As someone who is just starting out in the workforce and looking to start a Roth IRA, is now a good time? Due to the industry I am in, I predict I will be over the income limit to contribute in 6-7 years, so do I try and wait a year or two until the economy has a recession (even if just a little one), or should I just contribute the 6k max right now and continue to do every year even though if I drop the $6k in now I could lose a bunch of that if the economy tanks in a year or two? Thanks!
MrLalala9876543 start now! Don’t try to time the market. And don’t worry about the income limit, even once you’re above the income limit, you can still contribute to a Roth IRA through a strategy called the “backdoor Roth IRA”. I’m above the income limits so this is what I’ve done. 😊
Erika Kullberg: Finance, Money, Investing good points! Thanks for the help
MrLalala9876543 anytime! 🙂
Today is the best time to start investing. Diversification is key and time is your best friend. I bought a real estate rental property almost a year ago. My money sitting in the bank was useless. Invest over everything. Started a YouTube channel about personal finance and real estate. Feel free to check it out
What do you think of cryptocurrency?
Great again Nate! I just gave you a Thumbs up. So you should think about nest video.
Tesla has increased more than anyone expected.
that Has nothing to do with the topic of a recession
Florian Herp He just mentioned how Tesla’s stock price is more than Ford and GM when talking about the confidence of Investors…
I’ve been watching videos about the next recession since 2016
🤔😹😹😹.. I too 😣
the point is its only a matter of time. there is a 100% chance there will be another recession. may as well be prepared
@Liam Merrick ✌️yes to be prepared is the half rent do we say in Germany 🇩🇪 😊
well here we are 🙂
Poop poop
I like that you are 21 and smart!
Always learn a little something from you Nate…I’m one of those soon to retire folks with a variety of investments..looking forward to some of your safe choices…
I bought a real estate rental property almost a year ago. My money sittting in the bank was useless. Invest over everything. Started a YouTube channel about personal finance and real estate. Feel free to check it out
Meanwhile I just keep adding drops to the bucket 🙂
Thank you for making this!!!!!
Common sense.
Far too many ad interruptions
Ive been watching videos about the next recession since the last recession
So true!!!! Everyone wants the credit for calling the top! Someone will eventually be right in the end, I guess?
I’ve been doing it the last five years, its a shame really. So much growth missed.
Money Tri Absolutely. Lots of people sitting on the sidelines. Doesn’t make too much sense if you’re young and have time ⏱ to recover from any short term losses. Just keep climbing to Infinity slowly and steadily 👍🚀
Enlightening. Best protection against a recession is Diversification spread over several sectors. I personally ( at an elderly age) prefer to invest for Dividends, which are minimally affected by recession. In 2008 only 606 companies lowered their dividends and these were not the larger steady payers o0f dividends.
would love to see a video on printing money
Where’s the printing machine??? Haha 🤣
Really good video Nate, as always!
Only the people who watch this video will be ready
nate, if you happen to read this comment ads in the middle of the video is ruining the viewing experience. please avoid it.
Gotta make money to justify creating content. Invest over everything. Started a YouTube channel about personal finance and real estate. Feel free to check it out
The biggest thing that makes me worry about a recession is that I work for a large shipping company, for the last few years they have had a “Plan 2020”. Now that 2020 is here, our stock share might not be high, but the shareholder income is crazy high and I am really worried that a lot of huge investors and big players within the company are going to take their money and run. I would assume the same could be said for many large corporations that have been doing well for years and years that at some point, someone is going to get greedy and pull the plug and cash out. Please correct me if this is not how it works!
I will post this every single time you post a video in 2020 as an acknowledgement how meaningful your videos have been to me. The more likes the more people are acknowledging you too man. #5
I feel investment dumb.
With all the risk why wouldn’t I just pull my money now, wait for a recession, and then reinvest?
Sorry for the silly question but this all makes me nervous.
Thanks.
The bigger question is when do you jump back in? Market down 15%, down 25%, down 40%. You may time the perfect top, but what catalyst will you wait for to call the next bottom? You may miss out on big gains when the market bounces back.
@MR. ZERO to INFINITY How much of your pie would you put in savings before investing. I think I just have too much in investments. : /
Thanks for explaining that. Makes sense.
it’s a beautiful thing she said I started my stock market investing journey at 19 with savings of $20k back in 2010. From age 15-19, I read a lot of investing books and watched CNBC to learn the lingo prior to investing in the stock market. It definitely takes a lot of time to learn about the different metrics to review prior to building a position. Unfortunately, I learned at a young age that there’s never that 1 secret article that has the magic answer to huge returns on your money. Overtime, you’ll learn that there’s so much info that needs to be structured into a bull thesis. I’m not a fan of throwing a dart 🎯 and hoping it hits the bullseye. I rather use my brain 🧠 and use logic and facts to come to a strong analysis on a company with a firm vision of growth. At the end of the day, we’re all just trying to make money, right? 🤔
I was just talking with a coworker today about this. I told him, it took me years to buy into the market, and when I do start selling, it will not be all at once.
I would like a video on quantitative easing
Nobody:
Nate O’Brien: about 12 years ago
*Be fearful when others are greedy*
Preach
Warren Buffet 😎
You are always talking about economic growth, but you should rather talk about overpopulation and the destruction auf our planet by economic growth. How about turning away from capitalism. Start reading “The Capital” by Karl Marx.
He was a Jew. 😎
Over population is a brown people problem, whites have a low birth rates.
I want recession
So that tesla shares came a little low and grab a lot of them
That’s my goal as well!! They’re over priced now
@Jazmin Bautista yes
But what a coincidence
Its 200$ low now
lose 2-300 k on a house-> stop going to applebees 😭
I bought a real estate rental property almost a year ago. My money sitting in the bank was useless. Invest over everything. Started a YouTube channel about personal finance and real estate. Feel free to check it out
This topic was very narrow focused, but still interesting. You never touched on economic cycles and that we’re in the longest growth cycle in this country’s history. Usually the growth cycles are about 6 to about 8 years in length. I think we only had one growth cycle that lasted 9 years before a recession hit. We’re currently in a 10+ year growth cycle. One of the big factors that got us out of past recessions were the Baby Boomers because they helped to spend us out of those recessions. Now that the baby boomers are either retired or readying to retire, this factor won’t be there to help lift us out of the next recession. The current generation isn’t nearly as ‘spendy’ as past ones have been. This does worry the Fed, one reason the Fed is propping up the market. Maybe a more in-depth video on this in the future? Thanks.
What is the name of the jacket you’re wearing in this vid?
He will make another video next year 2022 recession coming. Just Click bait for ignorant people. US equity market is always bulls market regardless recession. Just buy big tech stock every month and you will be fine. Who cares it drops 30%. It is just stupid not investing your money because you worried about recession.
This is A1
Can you do a video of your current holdings? Stocks, bonds, etfs, metals, real estate, etc.
I am from Puerto Rico. Nice that you mentioned the hurricane we had a couple of years ago.
thanks for that very informative video 🙂 do you recommend any resources on reading more about it?
Youthful naivety…
Hi thank you for uploading this and the other videos I really appreciate your content .
Great Video. Started a YouTube channel about personal finance and real estate. Feel free to check it out
Only really picked up in the last 4 years.
IT’s crazy how long it takes
Stop being a bear and we won’t have a recession
How can you be so sure? It is coming.
okay, it’s getting to annoy me… clickbaity, long videos with tons of water, yo’re just becoming another Kavin David, or that small guy with Lotus)
I think its time to buy some bitcoin..
Or canned beans. 😃
Your videos are so interesting! Good job 👍🏻
You’re videos are so interesting! Good job 👍🏻
The real problem is the Federal Reserve devaluing the currency making saving money impossible. This forces people to invest their money because you can’t save your way to retirement anymore.
The structure of the system is propped up with big debt at the individual, corporate, and governmental levels. Not sure when it will pop, but it will.
I bought a real estate rental property almost a year ago. My money sitting in the bank was useless to me. Invest over everything. Started a YouTube channel about personal finance and real estate. Feel free to check it out
I just published a video about this too.
Very interesting. Thank you.
good vid!!!!
All about the jobs and wages no deposits at the banks no fair wages in some industries
Make a video on Quantitative Easing. You got a guaranteed view and like from me.
I agree
Sir! It is, in fact, very likely that trade wars are far more deadly than the coronavirus.
I’m actually curious about how much of your viewers are female. I bet there are more females watching your shit than the average financial channel because they think you’re hot
I save 30% of my income so I will be good
where do you save it?
lol yeah 7 reason that can happen any year not just 2020
When a recession hits, it’s time to buy and hold for the next ten years hahah! Just wanted to say, you inspired me to start my own channel. I’m growing at a decent pace but any tips/tricks would help!
Only problem is when to buy
@Ted Archer right after the recession; when stock prices are at it’s lowest
You looked smart
I love ur opinion
More bull from nate. Why do people listen to him, he knows nothing.
👍🏻
He really oversimplified all the issues in this video. Makes it seem like he doesn’t know what he’s saying. He’s just making a video to make a video.
What a waste of time!
So, what do you suggest, If I can spare 500$ a month, where do I put them, do I just save them? and buy something like real estate when the recession hits?
Tech companies are already in bubble terretories with PE ratio 80+, e.g : nvdia , Apple, Facebook
Please do a quantitative easing vid!
You think your paper money or stocks will mean anything after a collapse? If you have no gold or silver you will be broke.
You mentioned many good text book catalyst of recession reminding me of economic202 courses when I was young.
But this is not in my text book but in yours but you missed to mention: Printing too much Fiat Moneys (M1)
Amazing content
Time in the market beats timing the market. Always.
my birthday is on September 28th haha!
It’s happening
Came back to watch this from your most recent video today. Nice insights, its happening only a month later, crazy
The 7 causes are happening again, craazy
I’m brazilian and here all this is already happening
Congratulations for this video, here in Brazil these 7 causes are happening too
You said that if the interest rates are low it encourages people to borrow money. But at the same time for investing in for example term deposits or something similar it´s not good right? Because the return you will have of your money will be insignificant right? So wouldn´t be better if the interest rates were higher so that people save more money and therefore invest it and in the end have a significant return?
What is more interesting part of economy is the GDP this is messure how rich your country but US is strong GDP also have big debt.The problem is we are using paper money not the traditional gold currency..
Omg
Dude how has this video not gone viral. I’m shocked
lol
Cure 4 death, trust god jesus death on cross destroyed ur death n arose frm tomb on 3rd day opened heaven 2 all his believers dead or alive when he comes again. C jesus death in google……
Cure 4 death, trust god jesus death on cross destroyed ur death n arose frm tomb on 3rd day opened heaven 2 all his believers dead or alive when he comes again. C jesus death in google…….!!..
you cant predict coz ur not an insider.. you’ll just pass ur money to wallstreet.. and hope that ur money grow. just saying.. no hate .
You called it and saw it coming. I was sensing it too and its surreal that its happening now.