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Every month, the National Association Of Realtors publishes their data on the latest market updates, home pricing, and mortgage trends, to give their insights as to the direction of our economy:
Most recently, mortgage Demand Plummets 22%, new applications for a mortgage fell 19% lower than the same week in 2021, and refinance saw an 80% drop year over year…but, the most surprising is that: Home Prices are now 13.4% HIGHER than they were, one year ago.
Even though more inventory IS being listed, the record low pace of “days on the market” implies that, homes priced RIGHT are selling quickly – and, homes priced TOO HIGH are simply deterring prospective buyers.
The blog, CalculatedRisk, points out that – in terms of what could happen in the future, look no further than 1978: We’ve seen a similar uptick in year-over-year mortgage increases…with rates rising by more than 50% – and, even though mortgage rates are lower today than in the past…there are some striking similarities.
As Bill points out, from 1978 to 1982…NOMINAL HOME PRICES CONTINUED GOING HIGHER…but, REAL RETURNS – when accounting for inflation – FELL by 11% over three years…meaning, home prices went UP in terms of DOLLARS…but, because of inflation…the NET VALUE declined…even though people’s net worths were going up.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
The thing is, since homeowners are able to lock low interest, fixed rate loans…home values tend to remain STICKY, in the sense that, people who aren’t FORCED to sell – won’t sell. That’s why, we could very well have prices continuing to go UP…even though, REAL VALUES might decline.
So, OVERALL…these reports are telling us that – higher prices ARE discouraging buyers from making an offer…BUT, there’s still enough demand to keep the market relatively stable.
In my own, very unprofessional opinion…I would NOT be surprised if NOMINAL VALUES GO UP…while REAL VALUES stay flat, or even see a slight drop…so, that means: if you’re in the market for a home…simply buy what you can comfortably afford and plan to keep for the next 7-10 years…but, what do I know…I’m just a talking head on YouTube.
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The biggest player in this housing market game is the media. Distortions, misrepresentations and outright lies. Sellers are being manipulated into selling their homes for lower prices, while the readership is influenced to think a housing crash is coming. I am sure housing prices will weaken a bit, but a crash? Nice try, media.
I am counting on it!
One year ago there was house for sale in my little town for $70,000 and someone bought it, fixed it up and tried to sell it for $130,000.
I am sure that the neighbors loved that.
Fast forward to today…..I still think $130k is a stupid price, and half of that, like your thumbnail suggests, would bring the house down to its appropriate price.
Just because something spikes in price after a long period of high demand, doesnt mean that when prices go back to normal, its called a crash…..or am I wrong? This is just the inevitable readjustment in the market, right?
I was afraid for those idiots who dropped so much on a house in the last couple years, but at the same time, I knew a reversal would come and it would be to my benefit.
I’m so thankful that my landlords are renting me a place to live in at a reasonable rate . Inflation is uncomfortable but i’m thankful that my job pays for my life.
You are lucky because rents are going up everywhere . Rent prices rose by 0.8% in June from a month earlier, according to the labor department it is the largest monthly gain since 1986.
Click bait. Dislike
recent report showed that Chinese Foreign buyers bought 50Bil worth of RE in US , Graham, can u do a video how their impact, any thoughts if this will continue to pop up the housing market. Thx
How many ads can you cram into 12 minutes? Your research is interesting but an ad in the middle of an explanation is not conducive to easy understanding if you are trying to teach something.
The crash is here, individuals with big investments in properties, are in denial of what is happening. “They will lose Millions”
You and everyone else forget to mention that this housing bubble started as far back as 1998 that was the initial start of this artificial inflation for housing and now it’s all gonna go back down close to those numbers.
Thank you Tom Cruiz
Here is something else nobody talks about. The “baby-boomers” are the largest owners of residential property is the US. The oldest ones are already beyond the average mortality rate in the US. What happens on top of all of this when all of that property hits the market?
Yup. I’m getting real sick of all the people that think real estate is just some never ending money slush fund that will only ever go up. Comments like “they not making anymore land” is just so short sided. While sure that’s true, when demand plummets because the baby boomers eventually die off and there’s no demand for all those homes they used to occupy, prices will fall. Especially since many countries like US are trending in negative population growth territory which will only make it worse.
Real estate can be a great thing to invest in. However, this idea that young people need to stretch their budget and take on all this risk just to get into a home because it can “only go up” is so fucking frustrating to listen to.
Hedge funds buy it up and rent/sell it to you.
As a borderline bitter millennial, I’m rooting for a crash of biblical proportions so maybe, just maybe we can afford buying homes.
i watched the Wizard of oz and saw dorthys house get taken away from kansas and crashed somewhere in the land of oz.i think pelosi got stuck under it when it crashed.
Misleading video ,he shows conflicting picture ,reality is prices coming down sharply .Crash is boiling and comming
The housing market it like an ocean liner. It doesn’t stop or turn instantly, it takes some time to do so. The big increase in interest rates makes it harder for people to afford homes. Some buyers will have to exit the market without buying, others will not be able to spend as much as before. The prices of real estate will reflect that before long but it’s not gonna be apparent for a while yet. Where there’s smoke there’s fire, and there is definitely a lot of smoke.
you are right this process is very slow
Unsubscribed since the title and the video just doesn’t make sense. Titles for videos are kept so that we like the topic and watch. If title doesn’t make sense to content you are just misleading us. Keep it clean or I hope more people unsubscribe until you learn to keep it clean.
Fed reserve owns 40% of all mortgages. They bought them on the open market.
Thank you. I enjoyed your video. May I offer you some advise. If you shorten it, it will be easier for people to view it. You had me in one minute. I bought Jose’s book.
Grift Stephan.
Not in Miami….
Please stop with the crazy click-bait titles. Content is good, but titles and sponsors have been terrible lately.
Nah it’s demographics finally being felt. Fewer buyers in the $ $2.0 M market
Don’t bother watching for the title! Just click bait. Waste of time.
Look at his eyes, they says it all😒
Good Stuff Graham, as usual, please keep it up, and keep the research, and sources. I’ll keep following daily!
Clickbait. Unsubscribe and dislike
I live in Los angeles pool houses in desirable cities are in the 700’s lowest I’ve ever seen them
Ah yea, The real estate investor talking to his millions of followers about how the housing market is not gonna crash. I’m so shocked
Bring the crash. It’s the only way many, including myself, will be able to afford a place. Selfish investors made it impossible. I hope they crash too.
Master click baiter this guy
So when should I buy a house?
5:35, wouldn’t the actual profit loss be 0.826% in this case since the baseline is now 120 and not 100?
Gram we love you for what you are no need to click bait lol my God it scared me i thought my single family home in cali will crash 😜 i just did purchased a solar panel for my roof and i cant afford to lose value.
Please show me a real %50 off house price reduction,with basic details.
Darn boy that’s burnt bacon sandwich…
Only in the states does the fed rate go up and mortgage rates drop like a rock.
This guy is completely wrong. Volume(sales) in Real Estate Sales equals price increase and price decrease. Sales are down and we over built in homes again. Added factors are recessions and The Federal Reserve who is raising interest rates plus selling off 60 billion a month in bonds in QT , The Real Estate Market is the largest factor in inflation the Federal Reserve can effect the price real estate by QT.
The sky is falling, the sky is falling, the sky is falling 😂😅🤣
Thanks for all that research 🧐! Respect 🫡
Slightly disagree. As I do see some areas will crash, Places with natural beach fronts, aka Florida, will not experience this problem the prices will continue to rise. The recent change in the economy was an informational shift rather than anything.
Clear and very! helpful, Thank you.
It’s not going higher. It’s falling. I’m an appraiser I know.
In the current case, a significant portion of the inflation is caused by supply chain disruptions. To reduce current inflation the government should be using tax incentives to compensate consumers for delaying their purchase of homes and other high priced items until next year and the following years, when the supply chains should be more stable, and our productive capacity will be restored. This would allow people to save more money, while demand is reduced, instead of the Fed taking away their money to reduce demand.
@alex young Please, your coach you mentioned, how do i get in touch with her?
@erich kraetz you may have come across her on a few interviews, just look her name up online to get in touch with her, her details are provided online
The fed is run by lawyers…
@liam richard Japan 2.0?
We can not trust the fed & current administration at all right now ! And.the open borders will begin to affect all Americans including a Govt that sends our billions to war sink holes ! Charity begins at home ! On top of it the IRS is hiring armed agents. 80,000 manpower increase. How is that going to help Americans ? We’re just starting to climb out of lockdowns !
🙌🏽❤️🙏🏼🇺🇸🕊
All the big corps are buying up all the real estate because soon the collapse of everything will happen and at least they have real property to show on their balance sheets.
has he always use hand gestures this much?
What are you saying? You can claim all the doom and gloom stats and then say probably✔️
“The Biggest Housing Crash Of Our Generation Is Coming”, What does this have to do with this video?
But, I love these videos!
Oh boy, you looks like 13
Clickbait, content completely opposite of title.
Enough with the trash clickbait. Unsubbed.
So prices go up and foreclosures go up? Guess who is a very pissed off robot._
Bring on the crash!! I’ve been waiting to buy, woohoo!
Dude, what’s with the click baits lately?
House tax here and most places means we will never own any property, banks are purposely wrecking it all so that they can repossess and ruin life for millions as they do through wars.
Your titles are getting more annoying
buh buh buh but, I was told by older politicians 2008 was going to be once in a lifetime!?!?!?!
ZMM on the ASX. 99.8% down. Huge investment opportunity?
In two words – home prices are rising because of inflations.
The dolphin pic convinced me, I subscribed lol
Decided not to sub…..
Graham amazing content but the clickbait nooooo your content is perfect as is 🙁
I wish people just buy homes to live and stop speculating about prices
Most YouTube housing market videos are purely opinionated soap operas. If you want data driven analysis then head over to Altos Research. The best data driven analysis on YouTube.
I think the next generations soon realises that they will never own a classic flat/house in many countries. The banks increased the house prices so high, that most of the people has no chance to buy one with or without a loan, not to mention who took the risk then failed. Soon 10, later maybe 20% of the young people will give up on renting houses too, because their prices scale to the housing prices. New type of homes is building in every day, some older ideas comes back in newer from. Freedom, mobility, low cost, zero utility bill. Micro homes, vans, trailers, living on a boat, some of them old, some of them brand is new idea spicing with solar energy, collecting and filtering rainwater, some of them even passive solution. The greed of the banks makes us to find new paths, new solutions. Naturally not for everyone.
Yeah that’s great but on a 5-10 yr time horizon property value with go up. There can be a window of affordability I suppose.
Graham, Las Vegas was doing fine until you moved there! housing prices going down, flood!! what did you do to Vegas?!
Crash? It’s by design with the Feds increasing the interest rates. Crash was with w bush in 2004-2008 with foreclosures up the wazzu taking the country in near financial collapse.
So what your saying is I’m never going to be able to buy a house where I live. In PA near the Maryland border and all the people that work in Baltimore but live in Pa is part of the problem for people that live and work in Pa. The people that can commute to Baltimore and make more money buy up all the houses while the ones that work in Pa and make less doing the same job can’t afford the prices. That is where I am atm. At this rate I may never be able to own a house.
Seen you make this video about 10X it’s getting a bit old. I’ll continue to support you but try to spice up your content every once in a while, it’s tiresome.
Supply and Demand. We need to go to War and remove all these old fogies and investment companies that hold all the stock. We need to make it Cultural Law you can’t own a home you don’t sleep in.
I love how the actual info in this video is the opposite of what the title says, lol
Rent continuing To Climb ?
Click-bait crap!
🤞🏾
If homes prices doesn’t go back to 2015, don’t buy a house .
Do you have physical Tourette’s you can’t stay still for two seconds Michael J. Fox syndrome
Jesus.. this dude’s hand movements are aggressively cringey.
This isn’t a crash genius, it’s rising interest rates When they come down, we are back on fire.
@Graham i just watched ep3, season 25 of south park. the whole episode is about the housing market and making fun of real estate agents; plz do some type of reaction video to it! it would make whole year!
This is why Patrick got u lol
Is it the crash is coming or homes were too expensive to begin with and people just won’t pay that much
We work for years to have , $1million while some people I know put thousand of dollars in some meme coins and they are millionaires.
@Ashley E. Carter . I have seen this name before Derek Mia Scott on trading forum this woman must be exceptional for people to talk this good about her
I will definitely try to reach her through. I can’t wait to become rich if all this about her is absolutely true
Hello…what are the requirements to start up investment?
@Robert Myers I think Mia Scott can assist you reach her out
Self trade is too risky if you don’t have the right knowledge and strategies on how to trade and read margins
just search for house crash and you will see there’s hundreds of videos about the next crash. it’s been since ever but especially 2020 those grifter warns us about the future crash. Apparently in 2020 they were fear mongering us about the ultimate Armageddon krach happening in 2021! Then in in 2021 hundreds of people explaining you the mega end of the world crash of 2022! It will happen! and now they prepare for the 2023 ultimate krach.
Of course if you keep expecting a krach every year, you will be right. Even if it’s not really a krach.
It’s all the same right wing preppers anti gov Armageddon story we hear since the last 100 years.
Same with the 2000 bug, “investor coach” where doing the same fear mongering.
So what I’m hearing is us normal folks and millennials and genZ will STILL not be able to afford houses. Great.
Click bait is getting out of hand
Be still.
What a useless video. Guy has snakeoil salesman vibes and doesn’t really explain the point he was supposed to make.
800,000 for a Shiity home in Los Angeles
Hi Graham thanks for good info I can use
Recession is a great chance to reduce and downsize. The demographics is shrinking and interest is higher so people will slow down buying houses, cars, furniture, cloths, fuel and electronics. This will reduce excess of buying which impact the environment.
Can someone answer my question on here “ does this effect homeowners going solar
Why is Stephen selling his house on fire for only 50% off in the thumbnail? If the house is on fire, wouldn’t it be 100% off? 🤔
Why is ur clickbait showing u selling a burnt down house for 50% off? Its stupid. Stop clickbaiting!
Click bater
After selling a couple homes in 2022, I’m anticipating a housing crisis in order to buy inexpensively. As a backup plan, I’ve been thinking about purchasing stocks. What recommendations do you have for the best time to buy? On the one hand, I keep reading and seeing trader earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
Most people are unable to handle a fall since they are accustomed to bull markets, but if you know where to look and how to get around, you can profit handsomely. It depends on your entry and exit strategy.
You’re not doing anything incorrectly; you simply lack the expertise to capitalize in a down market. Professionals with extensive expertise who must have witnessed the 2008 crisis are the only ones who may profit significantly during turbulent times like this.
@Oscar Jiron I require suggestions on how to restore my portfolio and create more effective strategies in light of the huge declines. Where can I locate this instructor?
@Anthony Hart You may locate “sharon lee casey” using a search engine, of course. But I’m not sure if I have authorization to talk about this. She received a lot of media attention in 2020. She manages my portfolio and serves as my mentor.
@Oscar Jiron Fascinated to know, Her credentials are undoubtedly excellent, Sharon appears to be very knowledgeable. I discovered her online profile and read through her resume, educational background, and qualifications, which were all very impressive. She is a fiduciary, so I scheduled a session with her.