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THE 2024 HOUSING MARKET:
Wells Fargo was the first to warn that the “housing market is headed back to a 1980s-style recession.” However, even though Wells Fargo believes that the housing market could enter a “Recession” – that doesn’t mean lower prices – in fact, to them, it means the opposite.
They say, because fewer sellers are listing their homes, “home prices will continue to appreciate at a slightly slower pace because of underlying demand and tight supply, rising 1.8% by the end of this year, as tracked by Case-Shiller, and 2.5% in 2024. In 2025, Wells Fargo forecasts home prices will rise 4.4%.”
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley believes that housing will start to get more affordable throughout 2024, saying: “We expect home sales to be weak in the first half of next year, but activity should pick up in the second half and further into 2025, and that’s primarily because affordability will improve.”
They also expect that the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates in mid-2024, which – will prompt more sellers to list, and more buyers to obtain a slightly more affordable mortgage. They anticipate rates to be as low as 0.4% by late 2025 – meaning, according to them – we’ll be back near a 0% interest rate policy in just 2 more years.
The chief economist of Realtor.com also agrees with the fact that affordability will only improve from here, noting that ‘Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors all predict that the 30-year mortgage rate will fall to below 7% in the second half of 2024.’
However, the downside is that – regardless of who you ask – nearly everyone unanimously believes that housing prices are unlikely to see much of a decline in the near future, at least until home sellers outnumber home buyers – which, right now – isn’t anywhere close to happening.
According to the CEO of Redfin, the ”only good thing right now about the US housing market is that it can’t get much worse from here” in terms of low inventory, high mortgage rates, and low sales – but only time will tell if these aspects improve.
At this point, it’s said that – in order for affordability to fall back to “normal” levels – one of three things needs to happen: “Either the 30-year mortgage rate needs to fall by 4.4 percentage points, the median household income needs to rise by 62%, or home prices need to fall by 38%.”
Although, keep in mind that t’s reported, of the homes sold in October, “28% went above the listing price, which suggests there was still a bidding war among would-be buyers.”
Personally, I tend to think that most of these real estate predictions are totally random guesses (and, inevitably, a few of them will be right) but, if you were to ask me to give a guess, I’d say rates hang higher than people expect for the next year, I’m guessing they’re not going to go down as much as people think and over the next few years, the housing market will slowly begin to normalize, but – it could take a long time.
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Here is a link containing the source material for each piece of research cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as I can, and the additional resources should help anyone who wants to look into them further – enjoy! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16fSKHvn1fy7v09OW_FfrB6azqWGqI2nV4s6d2JGRXXQ/edit?usp=sharing
I want to start real-estate…
Can you help me?
Do you think blackrock purchases are what are currently skewing the market?
@@outlawstche does not believe that
Graham gonna be honest trying your coffee for the first time and shipping is awful. It’s shipped on the 6th day after i ordered, and now on the 8th day it’s not even close to me it’s still on the other side of the country.
Actually, if we just get rid of Blackrock State St., Vanguard, Morgan Stanley, then all problems would cease to exist
Apparently my first post was already banned..
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Hmm, imagine being a buyer next year trying to buy a million dollar house at 10% interest 🧐! I feel sorry for anyone looking to buy a home now! I have a feeling the Feds will continue to raise rates because inflation is still bad. It happened in the past up to 18%! I doubt it will ever go to 18% especially when incomes are no where close to house prices. If they raise it over 10% the feds are all living in LALA LAND if they think that won’t break the system 🤨!!
“What’s up Graham? It’s guys here.” Way to start the video. 🤣
Comparing Detroit to San Diego might not be accurate.
My prediction is in line with yours…
It’s going to be a slow process. Prices and interest rates will remain higher for longer than most others are hoping for. They will fall but slower than we’d all like. Probably the healthiest thing for the economy to get us out of this ping pong game of high and low and bring some normalcy back!
He always says “What’s Up Graham It’s Guys Here” ?
Or am I hearing it wrong?
than you sir, u da man!!!
What’s up gram its guys here🤔
I really like this kid’s videos. I think I will buy some of his coffee, hopefully it’s as good as his videos 😊
Nobody noticed his intro lol
Everyone’s base case should be, unprecedented events lead to this market, something unprecedented will be the result. We will either see a crash like we will have never seen, or we will see housing rip higher than ever due to failed monetary policy.
Is that a plated desk? Looks good!
Whats up guys! It’s Graham here!
Why do you keep saying it in reverse !
Why do you keep saying whats sup Graham its guys here! WHY°°°°°° ! HAHAHA
As someone living I San Diego I can attest to it being one of the most expensive and fastest costing places around. We are building an ADU to rent out and now feels like a good time for that. Graham you should look into ADU’s for a video, it would be great to hear your perspective, especially in CA where they have a grant to assist people in building them. Not to mention waiving county fees as another incentive
I agree. I also don’t think prices will go down much in most areas though. I think the less desirable areas will fluctuate more though. I really have no idea how my son will be able to afford a home in 20 to 30 years from now.
Sponsor blurb is way too long. Understand the need to mention, but come on.
Would like to see that vid on the better deals in the Las Vegas area as I’m about to buy my first home. Decent inventory out there in my price range but finding a good deal is enticing.
all this guys does is read a bunch of non sense from straight from articles. none of this is his original work. unsubscribed.
I’m not sure why you don’t include the inflation due to big companies buying up most of real estate around the country. Lets not pretend that like the diamond industry or chips. When you buy all the market up and then deem cost must go up due to high demand but limited product. It’s a rigged game..and we keep bailing out people like them
I wonder how many parents out there have adult children still living at home, and how that is affecting housing supply/pricing.
Big change in our individualistic culture happening as more Americans are willing to live with family.
Yes G.. But what about the reverse, reverse, reverse housing recession growth decline easing shift.
The SPCL will want to speak to you. (The Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Language).
I totally agree with you that the interest rate will stay higher than people think. Love your video. Thank you very much.
Looking to help folk take advantage of the value in places like Lexington KY!
Mark Twain said, “Kentucky will always be 40yrs behind”
Graham, I really think you missed your calling as a background actor on, Selling Sunset.
Keep it up. Thank you for your insight.
My takeway from this is, all money is made up and I’ll never own a home. Cool😊
That ad transition tho 😂 6:28
I’m with you. Rent is far cheaper right now. From a financial perspective, it just makes more sense to rent than buy in the current market. Unless you need buy for whatever reason, it’s probably best to wait.
Yep, im renting instead of paying 3x rent for a home
Rent also very too!!! We have no choice!
Exactly. If a rental payment is the same, as a home payment there’s no real reason why to buy a house right now. Especially when you consider maintenance, if heating goes out in the apartment it’s free to fix or replace. On the flip side, if goes out in a house it’s on you the homeowner to pay all necessary cost to have it fixed or replaced. I’m 25 single, with no kids and no wife/gf in my 3rd year in my career, while I wait til it’s reasonable to buy a house I’ll just save my money and do basics such as invest into my retirement and index funds too.
Even now I’ve had people repeat the yarn to me that a mortgage is cheaper then rent. Maybe at one point it was, but today even if I bought the absolute cheapest thing I could find my mortgage would be at least $700 more then my current rent. I don’t like renting. I wish I wasn’t. But it’s simply the only thing that makes sense for me now.
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This guy has no idea what he is talking about and I would encourage you all not to listen
Thanks bud for keepin us financially Educated! Regardless of how bad it gets on the economy, I still made over $65,000 this month.
Inspiring! Do you think you can give me some advice on how to invest in a healthy way as you are doing?
Riding the market wave entails understanding the market volatility, Susan Moore has been doing an awesome job reviewing the charts, enabling me to capitalize on the volatility via day=trading.
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Take a look at Las Cruces NM and El Paso TX. Incredible deals.
Like the sweater in this video bro
Perhaps “the housing market” is too broad of a term when it comes to what will happen in the housing market. As Graham points out in the video, Las Vegas saw a decrease in housing prices while San Diego saw an increase over the same time period. Perhaps the housing market needs to be examined zip code by zip code, or county by county, and so forth.
Graham, would be very interested if you made a video regarding properties that don’t advertise properly. 12:01
The DEX currently has a major bug.
If you trade, you receive x 7. I made a video on it.
Canadian Super Pigs are the biggest threat to the housing market since the oil crisis!
When Graham responds to my comments I feel like the CEO of capitalism (which is good)
I offered $300k for a $525k listing that’s been on and off market since August. They bought it in 2022 and thought it’d be an easy flip 😂
Lmao sure, the folks at most to gain from rate cuts are the ones “predicting” that it will happen. This is to inoculate the idea into the market so as to hopefully push the sentiment into reality. It is not their prediction, but their tactic to nudge the markets and maybe pressure the Feds into thinking this way. Likewise, Wells Fargo is predicting higher for longer maybe because they largely exited the mortgage industry so they don’t have much to lose on that front.
Read between the lines ppl. Wish you explained this nuance better in your video Stephen.
No better time to build new homes then today! 👀
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What’s up grams it guys here?😂😂😂😂
@GrahamStephan what do you think about building? Builders have a surplus of inventory and are doing unprecedented incentives to get people to move? I feel like it could benefit someone to get more than usual incentives if they can afford the interest and simply refinance in the near future.
did noone notice he said “whats up graham its guys here”
Mmmm. The fecal smell of stagflation. 🤌
Could this all be a plot to push the sales of tiny homes?
Is your desk a plane wing? If so, can we see a wide shot of it?
I’m seeing price cuts at a record high where I live in SoCal right now
The only solution I would like to see home prices falling by 38%, but I’m not sure if I would like the reason for it to fall that much. If rates started dropping quickly, the influx of people able to buy homes would cause a massive rise home prices. That would be terrible. People control the average home sales price, but the Fed controls the rate.
I’m seeing 20k-40k drops in Houston suburbs for some homes.
As an investing enthusiast, I often wonder how top level investors are able to become millionaires off investing. . I’ve been sitting on over $540K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy into stocks or do I wait for another opportunity?
You are asking this question everywhere!
52% chance of a quarter percent drop by mid 2024 lmao what a nothing statement.
Caught me off guard when you said “Whats up Graham? Its guys here!”😂
The article quoted “the real rate to be 0.4%” that’s not the same as “near 0%” interest rates.
I really hope nothing about this market is normalized. I make about $75,000 a year in wages and a $150,000 house in kansas mortgages to $1,500, which is semi affordable to me but not desirable, as the houses are typically between 500 and 800 sqft.
There is no good or bad business idea.
It’s all about you pump it up and then you show others how successful it is specially in start ups world you make money from money you buy with your left Hand from your right Hand the good products are those what Are up allready so people trust things If they see sales are up and other people buying it there is no good or bad it’s only If you can pump the shares up sales up you got to buy yourself then people Will come nobody don’t buy If it’s not well known and big allready that’s the crowd mentality the following behavior
500 years ago everyone believed and lived by the concept of a flat earth,,, and they survived, so is today, with the financial markets, there will always be someone advising you that the earth is flat and the reasons why you should or shouldn’t buy! Whatever you do, just know, be in it for the long run, markets go up and they go down, that’s how they survive and so will you,,, sellers of anything will always advise you on how you need to give them their pay, your money, (commissions) so be smart, invest for the long run, it has never once failed!!!!’❤️
I think higher for longer. A 5% mortgage seems like normalization to me.
Of course, I had a 15% mortgage in 1982. Refinanced again and again to get out of it.
How do you figure that accounting for inflation makes sense? The increasing home values is a huge driver of the inflation to begin with.
Thank you for this video. It’s really a waiting game at this point. I’m 25, living at home, and have increased my income by 50% in the last two months. I’m just saving up until I’m ready to buy something and it makes sense for me.
same boat youre in. got a good amount saved and just waiting for when the time is right i guess. but Kinda wanna buy a newer to me car. i can afford but there would go a good amount saved up.
Good for both of you for waiting for the right time. No need to throw your money down the drain.
@@lagrange3859 RIGHT?? The struggle is real. I’m feeling like my old car is gonna crap out on my any day now, knock on wood it won’t. But I’m hesitant to buy a newer one, although it would help my life in some ways!
@@MD-wv3dx Thanks I appreciate it 😊
Sorry,but would you help please,honestly i make mistaked.i use my money family,for gambling, i swear for god to do not repeat again,can you tranfer money for 2million for me,to my wife and my childrens,i need that for my family’s,pls help me
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I think they banks need to pay back the bailout money they got from giving out so many risky loans.
They got tax free money that I feel should be paid back.
The banks paid back the bailout money with interest years ago
What about home insurance going up by 45% this year alone?
You are the best finance channel period. Thank you and great work
Boo to your commercial part way through the video
I would like to see one of you real estate. People actually talk about the truth just one of you. How about the fact that half of the country is empty homes. The boomers are dying off at an accelerated rate they owned all the homes in the country.
Click bet.
Who is buying a house when the home affordability idex is at an all time low. This report is to trick the market.
0.4% by 2025?!?
Imagine Graham not pronouncing every letter in every word he says.
I am a realtor and just sold a home in Vegas. List price 799k. Sold for 780k. Appraised for 785k. Rate was 7.75
The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, an uptick from the previous month as striking auto workers and Hollywood actors came back to the workforce.
The unemployment rate was 3.7% down from 3.9% in October.
Remember they will tell you opposite to secure all your money before it sinks so never believe when they say it’s doing good
Negative x negative = positive
Moved to Vegas over the summer and I was thinking it be crazy if I just ran into Graham and what do you know I walk in this morning and there you are. It was cool to actually meet you, keep up the work!
I am from Spain, my friend in Texas referred me to this channel you make a lot of sense but I do not understand anything until she referred me to a financial consultant in USA that help me to craft my portfolio and over a year we have been working together making consistent profit enough to get me a new apartment and care for family.
Hello Jack, how do i find a consultant?
I’ll recommend you reach out to Laura Marie Keilman. She helped me and also very good at her job.
I’ve heard the name before but i never looked into it. I’m scared and don’t want my money getting into the wrong hands. How do i reach her?
Apart from being street smart, nothing beats engaging a PRO in your investment. I think you need one Clive. I know Laura too, she can help for sure.
Thanks guys, i just found her appealing page.
Very valuable information, thanks Graham
As New Year approaches, the home I purchased in 2023 has appreciated by $60,000 since my acquisition. However, the downside is the diminishing value of the dollar. I am currently contemplating strategies to reinvest $300,000 in the real estate market.
portfolio diversification is very advisable in the investment plane , well i think you need to get a financial expert to assist you with the best financial goal.
Indeed,stocks offer opportunities for dividends and long-term growth, whereas bonds generally offer fixed returns. It’s wise to consult a fiduciary to align investments with your goals and risk preferences. I’m currently working with one, and she’s been invaluable, growing my portfolio from $80k to approximately $550k.
I’m pleased I found this conversation. If you’re comfortable with it, could you share how I can get in touch with the advisor you rely on for your investments?
This a good time to buy a house, home price has dropped some with the interest rate you can refinance and you can ask seller for closing, repairs etc.rate will drop some mid next year and house prices will soar again
I think we need to see some more salt water fish!!
Not the Canadian super pigs!!! 🐽
I don’t know what’s going to happen, but housing prices have gone down where I live. Either way, I’ll buy when I’ve saved enough $$$…
I live in a suburb of a large city in the SE. We bought our first home in 2022 right as interest rates were going up. I believe there is still a lot of pent up demand in the housing market. If you recall houses were getting 10+ offers during this time period. The majority of these people were not able to afford a house and were then priced out of the market once interest rates rose. If you couple that with the record low housing inventory I believe you’re going to more buyers than sellers as they begin to drop interest rates meaning a competitive housing market which will cause prices to rise. I believe these “experts” are forgetting a giant segment of the economy who want to buy a house, but are waiting it out.
Agreed. If people are saying the demand for housing is low it’s because there’s a sizable portion of the population who simply can’t participate to begin with. Many millenials and even gen Zers now would love to buy even their first home, but there’s just nothing out there for them.
I hate paying youtube to not see ads and the a 3 minute ad is worked into the video.
No one is taking into account the out of control spending by Biden’s government or the extra burden of having 9+ million people enter your country and no gas/energy production. There is a big economic crash coming.
Im sitting on 2. 3 million in investments what should i do where can i invest without losing it all .
Man what a smart guy 😂 to many greedy boomers out there as a melemial we appreciate your years of services to workforces other generations but I’d like to be able to have some of my own peace of mind for future security for me and a possible future family. Let go of the greed and you’ll get more of that ever so precious respect you demand without adding much value to our lives Otherwise we’ve got some trials harder than yours in some ways. It wasn’t only hard for you but we understand your sacrifice and appreciate them too
This guy sounds kinda like ben shapiro
I’m 15 and I am getting the greenlight debit card and they have some options for investing in safe stocks so I was wondering should I invest my money through greenlight or should I just buy some more silver and gold
I have been a long time supporter and follower of your channel and I agree with you that the interest rates will continue to stay high for a longer timeframe
The problem is that renters have picked up on this over the past year & have increased their prices as well. The common theme with millennials believing in the American dream is that they want to be able to “own something” and at the end of the day, you won’t be owning that apartment. The later generations are okay with renting still because they haven’t hit the age range for “settling down”. I am actually an elder millennial closing on a property this month as I believe the crash won’t be as big as everyone expects it to. Just in case, I’m setting aside funds to refinance if I’m wrong, but by doing my due diligence & buying down the interest rate now, as well as having a decent down payment, & negotiating the insurance; for the neighborhood I’m getting into, I believe I will be able to come out ahead in the long term.
How do you feel about the impending water crisis for Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc? Will property values take a dump once water inevitably becomes more scarce?
Shouldn’t those who are holding cash buy gold (until they are ready to purchase a home) instead of holding cash? They are talking about de-dollarization in the international market.
“What’s up Gram it’s guys here”? Bro is burning out….
If you wanna be successful, you must take responsibility for your emotions, not place the blame on others. In addition to make you feel more guilty about your faults, pointing the finger at others will only serve to increase your sense of personal accountability. There’s always a risk in every investment, yet people still invest and succeed. You must look outward if you wanna be successful in life.
what if insurance spikes causing a sales increase and crash?