We can ‘absolutely’ characterize this as a recession: Barclays Chief U.S. Economist

2020 7/02
We can 'absolutely' characterize this as a recession: Barclays Chief U.S. Economist

#recession #depression #coronavirus
Michael Gapen, Barclays Chief U.S. Economist, joined Yahoo Finance’s Jen Rogers, Myles Udland, Andy Serwer, and Dan Roberts to discuss his outlook for the US economy and what the shape of recovery may look like.
This segment originally aired on May 21, 2020.
Subscribe to Yahoo Finance:

About Yahoo Finance:
At Yahoo Finance, you get free stock quotes, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, international market data, social interaction and mortgage rates that help you manage your financial life.

Connect with Yahoo Finance:
Get the latest news:
Find Yahoo Finance on Facebook:
Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter:
Follow Yahoo Finance on Instagram:



コメント一覧 (95件)

  • Thomas says:

    Who is saying this isn’t going to be a recession? 😂

    • Attack Chopper says:

      Stock market and the rest of the sheep lol people who are not tied to reality, which is a lot of people, including the government.

    • Márk Bányai says:

      Dont be ridiculous. Its gonna be a # shaped recovery, obviously.

    • Reason says:


  • Deniz Rashit says:

    Reverse J

  • Hermand Lo says:

    Lol 40m unemployed …not really a recession

    • Bruce Albietz says:

      Hermand Lo during the 4 years of the Great Depression ( 1929-1932 ) the total unemployment was 25 million, this was over a period of 4 years . We are currently at nearly 39 million unemployed in under 4 months . It has been estimated that nearly 40% will not be re employed due to many of the companies will have gone bankrupt by the time this is all said and done .

    • Bruce Albietz says:

      1933 sorry

    • Hermand Lo says:

      Bruce Albietz sarcasm my friends …dollars, gold, BTC

    • Kreative Chaos Guides says:

      @Hermand Lo i agree with your sarcasm. its like america wants to beat around as many bushes as possible. it IS a recession XD not that hard

    • Huate X says:

      @Bruce Albietz 1933 the U.S. had a third of the population it has today. Percentage-wise, we’re at about 11% unemployment, in 1933 that was at approx. 20% unemployment. Also, I’d venture to say that we may be at peak unemployment right now as momentum is in favor of re-opening. Virus fears and virus death tolls will probably decrease demand, but from the economic perspective, I think things are up from here.

  • axertrybal says:

    It’s not a recession. The stock market is going up.

    • Tommy D says:

      Charles Gil pretty sure they were being sarcastic.

    • Charles Gil says:

      @Tommy D Ok, I missed the sarcasm, by bad.

    • Mom Dayo says:

      That was funny 😂😂😂.

    • Huate X says:

      Because traders aren’t factoring in the US-China decoupling that’ll follow the coronavirus recession.

    • ken hamasaka says:

      I would not bet on that, even with your money.

  • Charles Gil says:

    You always ruin these videos with that ad at the end.

    • Ekornpro says:


  • Michele Price says:

    This one newscaster said it was more like a NIKE SWOOP…she was right on the money.

  • Thulsa Doom says:

    We’re in the “hope phase” which happens after a market crash. But they can’t ignore fundamentals for long. Ask Hertz, JCPenny, and the growing list of bankruptcies

    • Wade H says:

      도민준 q2 earning has already been factored in

    • Horice Black says:

      Anthony, in my opinion you are spot on.

    • Thulsa Doom says:

      Antony Stringfellow When Congress stops borrowing money from the Federal Reserve and the Fed goes into negative rates.

    • Thulsa Doom says:

      Antony Stringfellow 90% of the GDP in 2019 was consumption. With 50 million unemployed, the wheels are about to come off again.

    • Mom Dayo says:

      Yeah! “Hope it all goes well.”

  • Hey Now says:

    Your high powered perception is amazing.
    Quick,….what color is the sky.?

  • vadimka0770 says:

    Fantasy land. How this analyst can say we may be able to rehire people that lost jobs by the end of the year!!!? With an average pre lockdown monthly job growth is 200 K. If we can start to recover with the same
    Speed as pre Covid-19, by December we can gain back 1.4 million jobs. How can we get more than 30 million people back to work in short period of time, with 20-30% businesses that will never be open again after lockdown? Seriously! Please, just use common sense and data. Don’t mislead the public.

    • HarlanTheTech says:

      vadimka0770 They are delusional and are slowly starting to panic behind the scenes. Just listen to how first economists and politicians are trying to break the news to the markets so they don’t completely panic. It’s insanity! Workers already know the situation, waiting in food lines makes this abundantly clear.

    • Kreative Chaos Guides says:

      theyre trying to make it sound good so people dont panic, but you know what theyre doing

    • Loose Cannon says:

      Sounds like Doomsday preppers were right

    • Lukie Luke says:

      In defence of economists: they measure things by what they know. What happens now is unprecedented: supply chains disrupted, that they understand. What is out of their picture is this: there is no more demand, literally 0 demand. The consumer does not exist any more. People are mesmerised by this corona mass hysteria. Nobody will buy a car now, an engagement ring, nothing. Only food and preferably cheap food. There is no letter for this economy (not V, not U, not swoosh). Just free fall, no bottom in sight

    • brainwashing detergent says:

      @Loose Cannon yes we was right.

  • Mike F says:

    How many companies that went out of business weren’t drawing a dime before coronavirus? You also have business markets that stack the chips against the small businesses to begin with. A city like New York is completely unhealthy business market unless you are chase, Duane reade, Starbucks.

  • Kreative Chaos Guides says:

    its been a recession, millions without jobs is a recession. its not that hard

  • Irene Clark says:

    It’s not a recession. It’s a depression 😅

    • Kyle Gross says:

      There was a lot wrong before the quarantine. There’s a reason why the fed cut rates 3 times in 2019 and was rescuing the repo market in Q4.

    • Ionel Masca says:

      Obviously u don t know economics at all lol

    • Stuff Bud Duz says:

      @Huate X >>Economic fundamentals didn’t cause a quarantine.<< Agreed. But the fundamentals were well-undermined before the quarantines, which is a point the powers-that-be consistently fail to acknowledge.

    • Stuff Bud Duz says:

      @Ionel Masca It’s not clear whom you’re responding to.

    • Stuff Bud Duz says:

      @Kyle Gross Exactly.

  • Clownish-Gambino says:

    How on earth is TJX shareprice up

    • pinkcichlid says:

      Govt printed 7 Trillion so far and pumped into the market.

  • Steven says:

    yet future is going to open like 3% up by Tuesday morning. LOL

    • Kyle Gross says:

      Doesn’t mean a whole lot when the economy is a disaster. Market can go up all it wants, doesn’t change reality. Hell, Zimbabwe made millionaires!

  • Michael Patterson says:

    We told the republicans that trump giving tax cuts, would put gasolene on a fire, we were crashing already, the virus was just the pin that popped the bubble !

  • Felix Frost says:

    Gasp!!!! You don’t say!!

  • Clint Sevilla says:

    Companies are always making a reason to cut wages. How? Good times, bad times, and even a pandemic is an excuse for not paying people.

  • Progressive news says:

    Hard to say because I know everyone in the comments getting unemployment and making more at home😂 stop capping y’all making more money right now then before. This ain’t no recession

    • Mom Dayo says:

      That’s what they call inflation. All the Fiat currencies chasing the few goods that only a few are producing!!!

    • Progressive news says:

      Mom Dayo 🤐

    • Loose Cannon says:

      @Mom Dayo does that mean the dollar is going to collapse or do you think it’ll be ok

  • Pa rulu says:

    A recession is two straight negative quarters just saying…

    • Mom Dayo says:

      @Pa rulu…
      Providing that other constants (Shipping/Transportation, Travel/Tourism, Education, Medical, Finance, Commerce in general)
      remains the same in the world you can use that definition for defining recession!!! Unfortunately, that old definition went out the window when the entire world shut down at same time!!! This is an entirely different ball game!!!

    • Pa rulu says:

      @Mom Dayo Lots of places are open, not sure where your living at? When the 2nd quarter results come out, then you can shout from the mountain top that we are in a recession. Dont blow out the candles on the cake before your guess arrive.

  • TheUnP0ssible says:

    This guy is smart.

    • Huate X says:

      Sort of a Captain Obvious thing to say, sadly.

  • Mom Dayo says:

    This is the Great Grand Father of Recession and Depression rolled into one. You just wait and see the dominoes in the months ahead!!!

    • Ionel Masca says:

      Lol no way. They gonna print big bucks. It s a matter of year not months

    • Loose Cannon says:

      @Ionel Masca good cause I don’t feel like starving right now

    • Mom Dayo says:

      @@Ionel Masca
      Banking on a year’s time for the full mpact of this thing to hit? I hope your survival plans aren’t based on that! Lol

    • Joshua Woods says:

      @Ionel Masca Yes PRINT will devalue the dollar

  • Luke McKee says:

    Bring on the deflation

  • christian says:

    is it just me or is a reverse j really really bad? that means it is going to get a lot worse than the beginning.

    • Mauricio Berrizbeitia Pedroza says:

      I don’t think he meant it would get worse than the beginning. Sharp slope downwards (where we are now or were) quick pop in Q3 and Q4 (where we may be heading or potentially are in the beginning of) so imagine unemployment drops from 20 to 10%, then slow recovery, meaning we would still trend upwards but significantly slower than the pop.

    • christian says:

      Mauricio Berrizbeitia Pedroza I think you’re describing a J. He said reverse J. So we go up and then come down further down from where we bounced.

  • vietimports says:

    the risk to start a new business has become substantial. a percentage of these people unemployed will be rehired, yes. but the majority will not unless amazon or somebody goes on another mass hiring spree. after what we just witnessed who is going to go out and start a new restaurant? or start a retail store only to be destroyed by walmart, target, or amazon?

  • Bertis says:


  • Gary Quarty says:

    What’s taking wall street so long to agree?

    • swave158 says:

      Dude, they were talking about this one year ago. This is ancient news.

    • ken hamasaka says:

      They are ‘making the market’ and will then dump.

  • Horice Black says:

    we should be happy that jobless claims came down to 2.43 million? They had to run the number down sooner or later.

    • Trevor Summers says:

      Which is laughable considering the record for weekly jobless claims before the pandemic was 600k

    • ken hamasaka says:

      Beware of misleading/fraudulent numbers from ‘government’. Look out of the window of your house and see what is real.

  • David Mueller says:

    This is a recession that will last through the third or fourth quarter of 2021.

    • Jacob Day says:

      Absolutely, over in Australia the Prime Minister said it will take us 5 years, and we weren’t hit anywhere near as hard as you guys.

  • Goran I. says:

    Oh look. Another letter on recovery sheet. LOL those guys need to rip their diplomas and go back to school. No ammount of letters you write will save you when printers go brrrrr

  • Lukie Luke says:

    Not recession, not depression, but destruction of the economy. Game over. Hope we get nuked for a quick and clean end. The alternative will be messy, a messy end to our civilisation

  • David Smith says:

    trump is the embodiment of failure

    • brainwashing detergent says:

      So it’s his fault china infected the world with corona? You putting the blame on him is a failure in itself.

  • Jaiber Porras says:

    Depression, of course

  • Jaiber Porras says:

    Inflation and depression

    • ken hamasaka says:

      And without ‘growth’, is stagflation.

  • Anonymous says:

    Was it the Fed that sold 26% of the market in one day?

  • Young Pocket says:

    The stock market is not the economy ,any market is only a part of the economy. The definition of a recession is two fiscal quarters with no growth in GDP

  • John Grear says:

    Recession/ Depression is just semantic stupidity. Any moron can see it’s a total disaster!

  • BC says:

    Lol it doesn’t matter what this dude says. A recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, you don’t say whether its a recession or not.

  • kmkcorner says:

    I like this guy. Tells it how it is

  • Andy c says:

    If the establishment says it is a recession, then its a depression . It is a fair assessment but perhaps a bit worse

  • George Kirby says:

    Someone forgot to tell investors and the housing market that there’s a recession 🤣 1% wants a crash so they can capitalize. Nice try bucko

  • 불생불멸 says:

    This is all about laying a foundation for cashless society and total control of citizens. Believe in Jesus! End of age is coming and his judgements.

  • aeopmusic says:

    The published unemployment rate (aka U3) is not representative of labor health… stop blabbing about it!

    better metric = labor participation rate

  • Sean Rosenkrantz says:

    There’s a lot of distance between cautious optimism and outright delusions about some magical rebound of employment statistics. This pandemic isn’t going to end in a year, maybe in 2 years if we’re lucky. Businesses are having to restructure, trimming expenses and wages to a minimum just to keep their doors open. 20% unemployment is only part of it. At least 40% of US consumers are struggling to cover rent and groceries, they aren’t going to see much surplus income anytime soon and are likely to use it to replenish savings and repay high interest debt when they do see any. Dining out, spa days and buying a new TV aren’t going to be at the top of most people’s list for quite awhile. It will be at least a full year before consumer spending will be strong enough to drive our economy again.

  • Jay Bee says:

    We’ve all assimilated to news reporters at home. It’s great

  • Stuff Bud Duz says:

    The profit margin on Coke is 10,000%. It’s irrelevant if gets five cents cheaper. And never mind “reverse J.” It’s going to be more like an upside-down J. The stock market and housing market will increase until the election . . . then plummet. I can’t believe these pundits are tying to feed us this slop.