My Thoughts On The 2020 Real Estate Crash

Here are my thoughts on the 2020 real estate market, where prices are heading in the future, and how I’m investing in real estate moving forward – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan

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Here’s what’s going on right now: mortgage rates have continued hitting historic low after historic low, and that bodes REALLY, REALLY well for real estate. But even though record low rates means there has NEVER been a better time to buy real estate and get a mortgage, fewer sellers want to list their homes for sale, and that’s creating a housing SHORTAGE.

Marketwatch included a graph showing the trailing 12 month returns of real estate versus the stock market – and the great financial crisis of 2008 was the ONLY time where real estate experienced a 12-month trailing loss of more than 2%. That means, that – over the long term – real estate as an investment is going to be fairly stable and uneventful, despite what happens with our overall economy.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/look-what-happened-to-home-prices-when-the-coronavirus-sent-stocks-into-a-bear-market-2020-07-21

Real estate is also proving to be a good hedge against inflation, and that could also be driving higher than normal demand with rates as low as they are.

Even for myself, I’m a firm believer in getting a low interest, fixed rate mortgages on cash flowing rental properties as a hedge against inflation – and then, just take 30 years to pay them off in full while the home goes up in value. I think that’s a sound investment strategy when you do this correctly…but the problem, at this point…is that home prices are skyrocketing, and there’s NOTHING to buy.

As a real estate investor, it’s paramount that you get a good deal on a property with some upside so that you can fix it up and make repairs…but, everything I’m seeing is selling a premium because there aren’t many other choices on the market, and prices are increasing faster than I expected because other people are willing to pay whatever it takes just to get the home.

There’s nothing wrong with doing that if your intention is to buy something for yourself…BUT, from an investment standpoint, it makes it VERY difficult to come out profitable.

Despite all of that, though…the future of what’s going to happen with housing prices is hard to determine. Right now, yes – prices have been going up – a lot, whereas – seasonally, they would be going down. Sellers area also getting closer to their asking price, on average, than usual – but, how long can this hold up for?
https://www.redfin.com/blog/home-sales-and-prices-keep-climbing/

Well, the tech company Haus predicts that real estate will see about a 1% decline into 2021…but then predict, after that, growth could continue as high as 4-5% once our economy begins recovering.
https://haus.com/resources/june-2020-hausing-market-forecast

CoreLogic, one of the largest data analytics companies, found that – even though prices have risen 4.8% year over year…they expect that, over the next year, will see a drop of 6.6% in real estate prices…
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx

I have a feeling, as long as consumer spending is low and our economy is shut down – interest rates will stay low, and demand for real estate will stay high. But, if that changes, after about 6-12 months or so, I would expect rates to slowly go back up – and that might begin to change the pace of real estate, especially if more sellers begin to list their homes for sale.

I’m still actively looking to buy something else for myself…BUT, I want to make sure whatever I buy is somewhat of a good deal, and I’m not going to overpay just for the sake of buying something.

For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at GrahamStephanBusiness@gmail.com

*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available.

120 thoughts on “My Thoughts On The 2020 Real Estate Crash

  1. Rebecca Allyne Reply

    You always take your time to bring out the best Graham. However, no matter the crash in the real Estate investment, the future holds more advantage than the current situation at hands because market values sometimes increases at a galloping rate. Get yourself an expert who will take care of your investment on your behalf…

    • Shondrella Avery Reply

      I totally agree with you because my father made billions in the real estate investment until his death. Ever since he passed away, I knew what I have made and guess what, this has only been made possible through our family consultant . She is ELIZABETH JOY KLEYMANN. She lives here in the USA and available on the web.

    • R Oneal Reply

      Wow!! What a great testimony! Please how do I meet with her?

    • Claudia Jordan Reply

      I was able to look for her on google and found her. I dropped her a message already. Thanks so much for such a wonderful tip.

  2. Jake Miller Reply

    SO what you’re saying is now is the perfect time to refinance.

  3. Nardo Are Reply

    why the trex statue

  4. Shelby Lentz Reply

    My boyfriend and I just purchased a home this month and the competition is INTENSE. We had a dozen houses we tried to tour that ended up selling in less than 24 hours. We finally found ours but again were in a bidding war. Thankfully our offer was accepted but I had no idea how intense getting a house would be right now…😳

  5. Richard Forester Reply

    Forbearance is contributing to keeping prices artificially high. That needs to stop and let the market play out.

  6. Falcoda Industries Reply

    Algorithm post

  7. Matthew Koehn Reply

    I’m buying my first house in Florida. Should I pay 200k for the new house at the top of my budget or a 50 year old house for 150k that doesn’t break the bank? (not sarcastic)

  8. chrishotz Reply

    I wish the same was in Canada. They made the qualifications ridiculous in Ontario so now only the rich can get mortgages at drop dead rates. Chinese has been buying up my neighborhood for years and now it is in full swing.

  9. Ramadan546 Reply

    Yup. Thought about buying a house but literally every property is being bought at 10 to 15% more minimum than the list price as part of buyer bidding. If you’re a seller you’re golden, if you’re buying like me RIP

  10. Henrique Bigodinho Reply

    The thing is that your carer is not a real estate investor is as an youtuber, yeah you probably bought your first house before making your first video but you didn’t get 6 milion in real estate because of the income from your properties

  11. Home Page Reply

    How do you feel about cash out refies in this moment?

  12. Jim Haley Reply

    Just wait and see if we have a second wave of COVID-19 this winter 🥶 Buy some gold and silver the Fed is continuing to destroy the dollar

  13. Luis Bolanos Reply

    Hey Graham I was offered a 401k plan with my new employer and I chose the Roth 401k option instead of post tax could you explain the difference im a little confused does it mean that that its tax free at 59 and a half aswell

  14. Edgar Alain Flotte Reply

    The biggest factor of the house market crisis was millions of people losing their jobs to outsourcing over seas. you could have had an excellent job, an excellent credit but how are you going to pay your mortgage if you are unemployed? yeah there were ninja loans but still there were more defaults due to unemployment than to anything else.

  15. bob Reply

    why is one of your shirt sleeves folded upwards but the other is not?

    great video btw Graham

  16. whyfold now Reply

    What happens when all those Airbnb properties in popular tourist areas hit the market once travel dries up near-permanently?

  17. MyMomsFlipflop Reply

    Hey Graham, I have an idea for a video that you should consider. You should do a video about the best college degrees to pursue right now and in the near future. I’m sure there are many young adults who watch your videos that are either starting college soon or about to start in a year or so, and I feel like that kind of video would help some of them decide what to go to school for if they haven’t made a choice yet. Thanks, keep up the great work!!

  18. rick woods Reply

    The low interest rates have been here for a while,it is the low amout of listings keeping up the market and prices.When the dam breaks look out!

    • rick woods Reply

      amount

  19. Juan Reply

    I have that shirt too.
    And I like your videos. 👍

  20. Monique Schmitt Reply

    Thoughts on buying a house while still paying student and medical debt????

  21. BRBallin1 Reply

    Aren’t you supposed to ask for the like after the video? How would I know if I liked it before going through it?

  22. lifeisgood070 Reply

    I bet in 2-4 years rates will hit 5%. Fed will print it out.

  23. fragarence3 Reply

    You are too funny when you talk about the “Like” button.

  24. Kimraj Khan Reply

    Great videos
    make more

  25. stringX90 Reply

    13:14 wut 🙃

  26. Tony Miller Reply

    2 things I would have liked to hear his thoughts on:
    1. The eviction ban that just expired
    2. The exodus out of certain major cities due to rioting

  27. Andrew Nelson Reply

    this is exactly why my wife and I are closing on a 2/2 condo in suburban Chicago in a range bound market on the North Shore as she is entering grad school. inflation hedge (30 year fixed) + rental value after we are done with grad school means that we can pay less for a condo than renting and the rental value is greater than our monthly nut. it’s a buy, hold, rent, strategy.

  28. Michael Shifman Reply

    if you halve an interest rate you can double the principle. But the math is coming to an end. You always talk about the past, but never mention the things that are true today that have NEVER occurred before in the history of the US. Debt, medical costs due to monopolies, negative interest rates. Add that to your channel pls.

  29. chayliehoff Reply

    Thanks for posting graham! I am looking to buy my first condo. Putting an offer in tomorrow 🤞🏼

    • Emily Lopez Reply

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      I have made close to $100,000 trading with him in my 7th trade.

  30. Adam Gronvold Reply

    I bought my home last year on a 5.9 percent loan. I am finishing a refi for 3.2 on it.

  31. George S Reply

    It’s been rough for my fiancé and I to find a house in Chicago. It’s been exactly this. Prices up, supply down, and I’m not trying to live in the hood so option narrow waaay down.

  32. paul vosho Reply

    So iether up or down…

  33. jonathan rezvani Reply

    Put in an offer 5% under asking on a property 220 days on the market. no responses….

  34. Kevin Yang Reply

    coincidence meetkevin also has market crash in the title? i dont think so haha

  35. Miguel James Reply

    The value of real estate crashed immediately after the lock down but bitcoin kept on increasing.
    Real Estate may be back in the 6-7 months.
    For now its best on crypto. Bitcoin most especially or even stock

  36. vigilantezack Reply

    We want to go RV lifestyle for a few years so the question is what to do with our current home. 3/bed, large lot, extra office/bonus room. We could sell it high right now due to market, but we could also refinance and keep it to get a low interest rate and then rent it with likely around $600 profit each month.
    So the question is, sell now for highest price we can get. Or refinance for lowest interest we can get and try to be remote traveling landlords. If we want to sell it later, the market could correct and we won’t get as much.
    Also, at the end of the years of RV time when we want to buy a house again, the prices and market could correct so we could buy one at (hopefully) lower prices, but higher interest??
    We would likely not be moving back to the same area, so we could end up being landlords from across the country if we keep the house. It could be a good investment to keep with such low interest, but at what cost trying to be landlords?

  37. Stephen Amesquita Reply

    These prices cannot last, if enough people lose their jobs and enough companies go under and the economy tanks hard people will not beable to afford these insane mortgages. Here in La you need around 60+ tbousand for a 10% down payment and the mortgage is still over 3000. I really believe a huge real estate crash is coming. It will just take a hard crash of the economy.

  38. Splassshhh1234 Reply

    hey…what gives you the authority to give such bad advice?…are you pdychic?

  39. Marc Tonzillo Reply

    Even with low interest rates can buyers continue to pay these high prices with all the unemployment happening?

  40. Eddie H Reply

    Do you think rents will
    Drop

  41. diamone videos Reply

    👍smashed 😉

  42. Edison Molina Reply

    Hey I love your videos and u really inspire me. I just got out of high school and I always wanted to be an entrepreneur. My family are telling me to go to college but I feel that college isn’t for me. So I started working to save up the most I can. What do you suggest me to do?

  43. Tobin Jensen Reply

    Is it a bad time to get into real estate as an agent?

  44. Ally Stanhope Reply

    We’ve been preparing to buy our next home since pre-COVID and we’ve definitely come out of this ahead. The key was we didn’t increase the amount we planned on spending because the interest rates were lower (got 2.3% here in Canada). So now we’re paying $400 less per month than if we’d bought the same house in early March – average sales prices right now are comparable to what they were early March. This is our forever home and both my fiancé and I work in essential industries so we can easily weather any short term loss. In the right situation there are definitely opportunities to be had.

  45. Skyler Hilton Reply

    Is it just me or does he record his audio and video separate

  46. McCann Farms Reply

    I just locked in a 30 yr fixed at 2.75% on my first home

  47. Nictron Reply

    Lock-in is only guaranteed by the lender’s validity. If the lender goes under or is sold it could cause the lock-in to disappear overnight. That could be very dangerous and risky. So still be wise about this and use debt wisely and pay it off as quickly as possible. Inflation also has the effect of eroding the economy decreasing the buyer/renter market.

    We’ve seen it here in South Africa over the last 25 years our purchase power and economy shrunk massively and everything is depressed and joblessness increased.

  48. the.content.you.deserve Reply

    WAY too optimistic! GDP down DOUBLE that of the Great Depression. Roughly 30 million unemployed. Evictions beginning now in some localities. Real estate will be affected. Especially as people lose government assistance

  49. Jesse Fonseca Reply

    Anyone else notice that Graham’s voice got higher pitched? well atleast compared to the video on his page “How I Became A Millionaire In Real Estate by 26”? Did you voice get higher or were you trying to make your voice deeper in that video? lol just poking fun but actually a little curious…

  50. Master Stacker Reply

    A terrific video full of remarkable insights. Much better than most.

  51. joseluis chavez Reply

    It feels like we are in a big fat ugly real state bubble and i can’t stand how peaple will even tink of buying real state in this point in time, good luck to you all.

  52. PG Reply

    I wouldn’t touch anything on the coasts and Seattle area right now. Study the migration trends. South is relatively a better investment. Utah too. At the end of the day, if the numbers work for you, it doesn’t matter how much you paid. And lastly, don’t over leverage yourself.

  53. Mr Anderson Carlos Official Reply

    Hey I’m a 14 kid with a decent gaming pc where should I start and how to start making a little bit of money? So at age 20 I’m financially stable to invest more

  54. Anthony Oliver Reply

    Trump wins real estate up , Trump looses economy and real estate tank…

  55. carlosgj1308 Reply

    Meanwhile in Australia the house are going down and interest rate it’s like 2.8%.its a great time to buy investment 👍🏼

  56. J V Reply

    Great break down; however your title is a bit click Batey.

  57. Suyash Agrawal Reply

    I got a 2.5% rate for a 15-year mortgage with 2.125 points. This was for an investment property which makes it even better.

  58. Francisco sepulveda Reply

    Wife and I are currently in escrow. Locked in a 2.75% fixed rate over a 30y loan for a house of $560K in the city of Lakewood, CA. Loan type: conventional, money down: 5%. Mortgage payments will be $2,900 P/M for the first two years, after tow years mortgage insurance of $205 will be waived after a reappraisal leaving our payments at $2,700. We I te t to love in this a house for a long time

  59. KIJIJI ALLIN Reply

    Real estate agents are worse than politicians.

  60. Ryan Bourque Reply

    Well, with that said. Let me know if you need help buying or selling property in the Las Vegas area

  61. Michael Baker Reply

    great advise at the end

  62. justin snider Reply

    Better start recommending metals and crypto graham. It’s not too late.

  63. Justin P Reply

    Great video. Is it just me or does it seem like Graham received a hair transplant?

  64. Eskobar Two3 Reply

    A whole lot of “what if’s” with what’s going on today.

  65. Marilyn Hunt Reply

    Right now: Would you stay in your current house while building a new house over a period of year OR sell now, rent a house from a friend until building is done and throw the house selling money into construction of the house? My sister is facing this decision in San Antonio. She just saw 2 houses $300k+ on her street sell in less than a week which hasn’t ever happened in her neighborhood section in the last 9 years. Also concerned about what the upcoming election might do to the economy. They’re worried they won’t get the money they’re expecting from selling to cover new built house. Thanks for your replies.

  66. Mike Dargusch Reply

    Every time he says “index funds”, I make sure I DON’T press the 👍.
    AGTHX all the waaaaaaay!

  67. Red H Reply

    Core logic knows something we don’t. Their change of pace rings similar to that of Michael Burry in the 08′ crisis when he knew something was seriously wrong, yet the world was pretending otherwise…

  68. The Human Reply

    So today, I was trying to figure out where I’ve seen you from and I figured it out!! Selling Sunset, S:1 Ep.8 towards the end when there were fighting by the pool about who’s two faced, and who said what. Dude, your face was priceless!

  69. Carlos Playz Reply

    I want Stephan to have a conversation with peter schiff

  70. LEX CHARLES Reply

    Does that mortgage calculator apply to everyone because it said a $300K mortgage at 6% interest came out to $1,799 monthly. I was quoted $250K at 3.25% interest with a $1,600 mortgage. Why is my monthly so high even thou my loan and interest rate is lower?

  71. Jim Dandy Reply

    In a recession, everyone supposedly jobless and broke? Of course millions of people are going to be qualifying for mortgage loans. WTF was I thinking?

  72. reid1boys Reply

    2.9%????? I have had 4 offers at 2.25% and one offer at 2.375% for a VA refi. Gonna lock in tomorrow as a matter of fact. Just sold my rental at a full price cash offer. We were supposed to close on the 10th and the buyers requested to close early. Hope to get a call tomorrow to sign docs Thursday or Friday. I sold my rental because I see home prices crashing and burning in the next year. Dont know how prices could possibly remain high with 35% or higher unemployment being propped up by govt. That money is gonna stop flowing, and foreclosures will follow. Lets wait and see.

  73. Sarah Cooper Reply

    How long do you foresee the low interest rates to hang around?

  74. s n Reply

    economy wont open coming year, lol, its fucked because the crisis of 2009 was never fixed, only pumping the market with fake printed money

  75. The Wonder Squad Reply

    You should look for a youtuber called CM topdog, he does stuff for a crypto currency called Zilliqa its gonna be massive.,,,

  76. Tavoy Maddox Reply

    I always hit that like button

  77. Olive.Joa Reply

    Who is so bored during this quarantine that they ended up here? 👀🙋‍♀️😁

  78. Dandy Finance Reply

    How is it possible to get foreclosures, when there is 600 USD extra weekly unemployment benefits available?

  79. Jennifer Smith Reply

    too many ads to like your videos

  80. Nick Farrow Reply

    One little question did you refinance your house?

  81. Robert Mata Reply

    I just turned 18 this month & invested $2500 in dividends after a lot of research! I used m1 Finance, I have a sucky bank & only have a debit account. What should be my next steps? Roth IRA, Savings account? Where exactly do I open these & how should I go about them?

  82. Alixium Music Reply

    Dude, I’m a real estate investor/wholesaler and it’s been slow lately. We’d done good marketing and what would usually be deals just aren’t right now. I definitely agree with your take. Can’t wait for everything to go back to normal.

  83. All Gives Reply

    Hey Graham make a video about how to buy a house as a foreigner for putting it for rentals

  84. Jimmy Kim Reply

    The Chinese buyers from China and Canada helped with the swift comeback after 2008. They literally bought the dip. They are still many buyers, but they can’t come to the US due to Covid. They are buying for other reasons that I can’t really say.

  85. Finanzas y noticias Al dia Reply

    What are the steps to become successful on youtube from your own prospected

  86. Darren So Reply

    You have earned my like and sub congrats! 🥳

  87. beast mode Reply

    should i refinance my home right now

  88. AAA P Reply

    Be Careful with Webull everyone, Webull is a Chinese Company.

  89. bitblt Reply

    What are your thoughts on eREITs vs owning real property right now?

  90. Dana Whitelaw Reply

    Honestly I have to hit the like button every time with your creative asking

  91. Pacific Cannabis Reply

    Buy and hold is the ideal investment strategy 😂😂😂😂

  92. Kyran Romero Reply

    Hey there comment section. I don’t know if any of you know much about the stock investing app graham is partnered with, but if I was to invest $100 and get the stocks worth $1400 (I know the chances are probably like 1 in a million tho), would I be able to sell the stock immediately and make $1300 profit? Would love if someone could help me out. I’ll be turning 18 very soon and am very eager to start investing.

  93. John Morris Reply

    Buy and hold all the way.

  94. Mark Zee Reply

    The value of other financial markets crashed immediately after the lock down but Bitcoin kept on increasing. Other financial markets may be back in 6_7 months. For now it’s best on bitcoin

    • Richard Jonah Reply

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  96. xocre8tiv1 Reply

    Come October when the unemployment numbers set in and those student loans, car loans and mortgages begin to default. It will be like on tsunami after another. If they grant another stimulus their will be hyper inflation on the food. Your $600 plus $1200 checks won’t mean squat. Expect the inflation To rise 20-30% on everything. Weimar Republic 2.0. Expect massive downturn in tech stocks. This hedge fund frenzy is the last buy in before 50% crash.

  97. anze jarc Reply

    R.I.P Trevor Milton

  98. sommi Reply

    💗💛💚💙 Shadow Stats says that Inflation has been 10% per year…
    If you do 10% compounded over 20yrs (from 2000 to 2020)… Gold turns from $300 to *exactly $2018*
    Coincedence?
    They tell us the inflation is only 2%…. LIARS!
    💗💛💚💙

  99. safe nsecure Reply

    I just watch a Chicago north shore property sell for $3,000,000 with a asking price $4,000,000 Complete opposite . Due a Zillow search for sold in the last 30 days. lakefront with a private beach. Complete opposite. Higher price narrower buyers.

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