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One of the things I haven’t really covered yet in my videos is the risks of investing and how to recover from a market crash, especially now with stocks at their all time highs. But is it possible to time the market? And what’s the best time to invest? Well, according to statistics, doing THIS is what generates the highest profits. Thanks for watching! Feel free to add me on Snapchat/Instagram: GPStephan
Here’s the stock market timing game!
https://qz.com/487013/this-game-will-show-you-just-how-foolish-it-is-to-sell-stocks-right-now/
If you expose your money to any type of market, you expose your money to risk – it’s unavoidable. But markets are cyclical and there will be a time when the markets go down and you see some losses.. It’s totally normal. That lends the question – since the markets continuously hit all time highs, is it a good time to sell and then wait for a crash? Statistically, it’s shown that market timing rarely ever works – it’s impossible to know exactly when the market will crash and when to buy back in. Hypothetically if this is possible and you can do it consistently, great – but the chances of doing this consistently and accurately rarely ever happens, and it’s shown that time in the market yields higher average returns than timing the market.
Studies by Brad Barber and Terrance Odean find that individual investors experience reduced returns with their stock trading accounts, with increased active trading a key reason in lowering returns. Examining 66,465 US household trading accounts over the 1991 – 1996 period, Barber and Odean find that the average household account earned an annual return of 16.4% over the period, compared to the 17.9% market return. Those households which traded most earned an annual return of 11.4%.
They’ve also determined less than 1% of households were able to reliably predict market cycles between 1992-2006.
I’m personally against market timing because no one truly knows when the next crash could be. If you pull out now, you could miss a few more years of gains. If you sell now and it crashes, how do you know when the bottom hits and when to buy back in? There have been numerous studies that show that the more you tinker with your investments, the higher the probability of achieving lower returns than if you had just stuck it out and held on to your investment.
Now speaking of risk and all-time highs in the market, what about a large upfront lump sum investment NOW, or slowly putting it in the market over time? Or waiting until the market is down, and then investing a lump sum?
Charles Shchwab ran the numbers from 1993-2012 for each investment strategy.
If you start with $2000 per year available at the beginning of each year, and bought at the YTD low every year, this resulted in $87,004.
If you just invest immediately as soon as you have it, you’d have $81,650.
If you invested $2000 equally every month over the course of the year, you’d have $79,510
If you had bad timing and bought at the YTD high, you’d have $72,487.
And if you had cash investments, you’d be left with $51,291.
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Does-Market-Timing-Work
The study concludes that the most reliable investment method has always been to buy immediately, and hold. Do not try to time the markets.
So how do you deal with risks and the possibility of losing money? First, don’t invest money you will for sure need in the next 2-5 years. For all other investments, have a long term outlook – don’t be too short sighted to panic sell or try to time the market as soon as it’s down. Instead, you should see this as a long term 10-20 year play.
According to research conducted by Charles Schwab Company in 2012, between 1926 and 2011, a 20-year holding period never produced a negative result!!
For business/music inquiries, you can reach me at GrahamStephanBusiness@gmail.com
Suggested reading:
The Millionaire Real Estate Agent: http://goo.gl/TPTSVC
Your money or your life: https://goo.gl/fmlaJR
The Millionaire Real Estate Investor: https://goo.gl/sV9xtl
How to Win Friends and Influence People: https://goo.gl/1f3Meq
Think and grow rich: https://goo.gl/SSKlyu
Awaken the giant within: https://goo.gl/niIAEI
The Book on Rental Property Investing: https://goo.gl/qtJqFq
Great video! If the market goes down, one thing to keep in mind is to use tax-loss harvesting. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/taxes/08/tax-loss-harvesting.asp
I just got the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”. I read the first chapter. It’s a pretty good book.
Enjoy it dude! Let me know what you think.
GrahamStephan I will. I’ll tell you what I think.
B Lee well?
PRUIKKI RACING I’m almost done it’s a pretty good book. Lots of value.
Yes it is. It has opened my eyes about investments.
Have you ever invested in the stock market? Or you rather
chose real estate and not investing in anything else?
Have a great day!
I invest in stocks through a 401k/IRA and just index funds, I don’t trade individual stocks – I keep it pretty easy and focus most of my time on real estate.
You make awesome videos graham!
Fight me
Thanks Graham, great information. I personally tried trading for two years and got my A$$ handed to me. Trading is not for me. Luckily I only lost $3,000. It could have been much worse. All i can say from my personal experience is that I would have been SOO much better off had I just bought the investments and held them. I owned stocks like United healthcare, home depot, visa, apple, etc. I have learned my lesson, and have not traded since.
Make money, invest it at end of each month, diversify, and repeat. In other words …..accumulate assets over time. I made a fun video on my channel recently about how much to invest per day in order to become a millionaire by 65 if anyone wants to check it out. Thanks for the vid Graham.
Yep, just buy and hold, buy and hold…forget like it ever even existed, and then keep buying more 🙂
dude ur eyes threw me off big time
Had the light a liittttlle too close this time, ha.
Lmao I beat the game my first shot just off the fact that a bull market on average lasts about ten years.
Well played 😉
What was the music used throughout the main part of the video?
Really nice to have a suggested reading section. Do any of these apply to US only or are they all worth a read investing in the EU market?
Hmm…I think they’d all still have good principles that can apply!
Hey graham im only 16 turning 17 on feb next year and I’m currently just lost and confused on what I want to work on but the goal is clear make money but I just don’t know on how to approach it either become an entrepreneur or get a degree im interested in real estate because you’re mainly my inspiration for that and also become an electrician but idk I can’t really decide. Could you give me an advice for a confused soul here thanks
Do some soul searching and try out a little bit of everything. I think I was just as confused at 17, everything tends to come together nicely. Read “think and grow rich,” it’s free on youtube as an audiobook. I think it’ll help, no matter what you decide to do.
Humble Dan Holy shit! Are you my long lost twin?
Right now prices are quite high in NY and I was wondering since like you’ve said I’ve only been exposed to the recent market and now prices are just high. In theory if I buy today and the housing dips, I will make my returns in the next 20 years? On the flip side I’ve also been saving up money since I haven’t found a place that seemed right. In theory once the market crashes and I buy into a position that I’m comfortable with, technically according to the study if I just hold onto the property and monetize it properly, I would gain a positive gain over time right?
Been thinking alot about this topic, glad to see your thoughts backed by studies. Thanks for the clarifications as always G.
You should get a positive gain if you hold long enough, pending the area does decent – but real estate can be so localized that you want to make sure it’s at least got a large population and industry keeping it afloat. But generally speaking, you should be okay. As for waiting or not, I personally wouldn’t wait as long as you find a good deal, but take your time to find a good deal. Took me 6 months of looking to find a deal that made sense, and I’m a Realtor who does this full time. So it’s not easy in this market.
Hey Stephan! What stocks are you interested in right now?
I actually don’t trade individual stocks…I just do index funds. Personally I go for the SP500 index fund and will likely branch out to some international exposure, but for the most part I just index in the market as whole.
I can see the ring light reflecting off your eyes 😂
Yep! Put the light a liiiittttllle too close, ha.
Haha. Now I can’t “unsee” it… Yeah, thank you, Brandon lol
Hey Graham i want to start investing in real estate just like you. I live in southern California and the prices in California is high do you recommend buying a house now or wait to see if the prices go down.
I wouldn’t wait to see if prices go down, but I would buy in a slightly lower cost area – maybe Lancaster or Riverside?
Oh okay thanks. For a first time buyer do you recommend putting a 20 percent down or 3 percent down? I want to eventually just have the first home as a rental property.
The $10,000 you invested turned into $29,870. If you hadn’t made any trades you would have made $2,024 less—leaving an ending balance of $27,846. You took a risk and it worked out, but there’s no guarantee you could do it again. Why don’t you try?
Does this method apply to relastate? Should someone just buy once they have saving or try to play the waiting game and wait for the market to crash to then go forth and buy at a lower value like you did in San Bernardino. I’d be interested in hearing your outlook since as a 22 year old in college I keep hearing “by the time you get out of school the housing prices will be down” but once I finish school and start having positive cash flow what if the market is high ? Am I supposed to wait it out or just go ahead ?
Yes and no. Personally, I think anytime is good for real estate AS LONG as you buy a place that cash flows where the numbers make sense. The thing with real estate is that it highly depends on the area, the seller, and what you can do with it – it’s such a case by case basis. Certainly investing back in 2011 helped, a lot, but I still see good deals out there today that I’d buy, it just takes way more searching. Personally I’d just buy when you’re ready without trying to time the market, but plan on holding on to it long term.
Thank you for the reply! Keep up the awesome videos ! I definitely have plans to purchase a duplex and hold that property long term . Thank you for your videos they’ve opened my mind to many new avenues.
How to survive the stock market? Don’t invest in it, invest in yourself and start a business. The ROI on successful entrepreneurs is more than you could ever imagine!!
GrahamStephan fuck yeah!
Sage advice, too bad most people aren’t smart like you.
90% of Businesses close up after 3 years.. Plus you need start up capital whereas Market you can gradually put money in.. there is no one way..
You can open a business there are other plays.. staff tax costs time it’s active.. Invest in yourself people don’t understand what the means..
First steps should be earn more save more.. invest in yourself best thing get a better paid job.. can be a course a qualification etc
MOst pension funds are in the stock market, I started my own business but I want to retire at some point, soon as possible ideally!
Yup because as we all know, zero risk in starting a business. Businesses don’t ever fail.
Love how humble you are. I second the multi-family apartment video. Specifically, how to buy cheap units and double the rent quickly
+Nick Lear I’ll definitely start getting into this. But so much is location specific and if it’s rent controlled or not.
Do you recommend going door to door for real estate investing?
+Eddie Malyovany You can but I’ve found it a massive waste. It’s just a numbers game, but I prefer a more targeted approach – usually with properties already listed. But you can certainly try and see if you enjoy it and get results after about a month.
Make a video on tax deductions from investment properties?
+parrot987 Sure!
GrahamStephan thanks man!!
Grey-ham, Grey-yum, Gra-ham and Gram
Guess the real pronunciation (I already know it)
When I started I can’t tell you how many times I have bought shares with the intent of holding long term, get anxious and sell it just for months later to consistently go up. AMD and Tesla for sure.
Yep, unless there’s some massive issue happening with the company, most of the time it’s just best to hang on!
GrahamStephan or buy more when that happens
GrahamStephan This is unrelated to this video. Just had an offer excepted on a home in Indiana $105,000. I’ve had two banks deny me because it needs probably 20 K in repairs. Which I have the money for but banks seem to not care. As of right now capital quoted 4.25% interest but they haven’t asked about the condition of the property yet. I had planned on living in it for a while and then possibly renting. I have the ability to pay cash but when my main portfolio is up 13% this year kind of sucks to do cash.
Correction Capital One is out
Really appreciate what you are doing 👍
Simple moving average crossover as buy and sell signals has been proven to work, realinvestmentadvice.com has great articles on it.
That game is actually kinda fun lol
It’s difficult, right??
GrahamStephan It was hard to beat but I still wanna day trade lol
I just got my midterm for pre-licensing and I feel like I know absolutely nothing. Two weeks left of the course. I will keep you up to date graham
Keep going with it, and keep me posted!
ive never seen a video with no dislikes before. well done!
+brabus maximus too late 😂 there’s always one!
Please do the multi family rental video asap. Its a really good idea.
Hi Graham, this is an attempt of constructive feedback. You have made some money from real estate and watching your videos I can see that you know your stuff, and definitely would browse your channel for buying houses hints. Lately you’ve moved to talking about general investing, for which you are not an expert, easily seen because other people explain the concepts in a more clear manner. Honestly, your channel has turned into one of those channels “basics to investing”. There are 1000 of those and only repeat each other..like everything you say has been said in previous channels. Please leave that to wealth managers. Peace
+Kristiyan Stoychev I really, really appreciate your feedback a lot – sometimes I do these without even realizing them and in a way I agree with you, definitely will take that into consideration going forward!
Great vid, would be interested to hear what you think about saving gold through companies like 31p1.
Shot at Snapchat, ouch. They were a huge bust though.
The thing that most people don’t understand is the difference between Investing and Speculating. Trading in itself, doesn’t matter if it’s the stock market or real estate is always Speculating. Investing on the other hand is quite safe and should consists of never making a one time purchase, but building up your portfolio of whatever you are buying over a period of time. E.g. buy a stock every few weeks and hold it long term, so it doesn’t matter if price goes short term (markets crashes) up or down. It’s the easiest investment method anyone can do and leads statistically to more return then any hedge fund can produce.
Btw for people with not much cash, buying “real estate investment trusts” (REITS) is quite a good alternative to take part in real estate without all the hassle and statistically over time the return is near the same as renting out properties, around 7-15%.
I’m assuming you posted this video around this time due to from what I’ve been hearing that a crash is coming soon?
+Japa There’s been a lot of talk about this so I figured now was a good time to talk about it. Who knows if and when a crash is coming though.
the game is very stupid since it doesn’t let us take the time to think about the market’s mooves and there is no ecomic data, news or other indicators to study
Is that an AP?
Graham, I remember you stating in another video in order to purchase your first property(s), you stashed away a numerous amounts of cash. You became like a hermit in order to put away as much as possible. If we are loosing 1-3% yearly due to inflation by “keeping cash”, what would the alternative be in speaking on banks to hold? Instead of investing in stocks etc, I’d like to stash away all my cash in the highest return possible but also really little to no risk while adding to it every so often. Would you recommend putting away cash in a money market or Discover bank I believe gives around $40 back for every $1,000 yearly. What would you suggest is worth doing if my goal with all my cash is to follow in your footsteps on buying rental properties etc? “Maybe when the market tanks”, I would have my cash relatively available in order to make a purchase vs locking it away in a CD.
Thanks again man for all the great content!
I put all my money in a high interest savings account. For anything i know I’ll need in the next 2-5 years, it’s just a savings account. Right now Ally bank is the best with 1.05% interest, so that’s what I’m doing. Then whenever I have enough, I use it to invest in a property. If your goal is similar, definitely do the same – you can’t afford to risk the money in the markets IF something were to happen last minute and all of a sudden you lose 10% of your capital, any type of a setback like that isn’t worth it.
So it looks like I should time the market according to the quiz. On my first try I got:
“You beat the market!
The $10,000 you invested turned into $14,229. If you hadn’t made any trades you would have made $3,460 less—leaving an ending balance of $10,769. You took a risk and it worked out, but there’s no guarantee you could do it again. Why don’t you try?”
Damn, well done!
Buy and hold forever. Not sure how much longer this strategy is going to work if we are due for a recession.
Just attended a conference where this was demonstrated.
Risk is good
Bryan Bobadilla fak you
LOSING**>
Never trade with the idea that you know anything about the future. That’s how you lose. That’s why probability trading is king. You dont now anything leave it up to the math behind volatility cyclicality, managing winners, have a beta weighted portfolio with a delta of 0 so you don’t care where the market goes… all this math comes the cost basis reduction from selling option premium. Holding the market and reducing cost basis on holding the market has always beat holding it passively based on historic data.
That white speck tho
lol noooooo
Yesss I made a $10k ROI with your game ! If only that was the easy
Great job!
I was wondering why you haven’t responded to my comment. seems like you responded with this great video 🙂 thanks for the upload!
The stuff is he saying is so truee… It’s fuckin complicateddddddd… I’m confused on what to do. I don’t want to buy RE when interest rates are zero since I’m paying in cash. At the same time I want my money to generate some residual income.
I beat the market and made $5611 more in the game.
graham totally unrelated to this video, but i just got my RE license on Friday and wanted to spend another couple of months at my current job saving up money before working working under a broker so i’m not deadass broke until i make my first sale. how much money would your recommend me to save up first? or should i just say screw it and dive in broke af ASAP?
I’d recommend saving up a few months of expenses first, then going for it – it totally depends on what your overhead is. The less you spend, the less you need to save up.
The $10,000 you invested turned into $44,197. If you hadn’t made any trades you would have made $3,435 less—leaving an ending balance of $40,762. You took a risk and it worked out, but there’s no guarantee you could do it again. Why don’t you try?
Ur hands are really distracting and annoying
This market simulator is BullShit – It gives no time for technical analisis or ploting price levels…
Not even mentioning other tools like Fibonaci levels or murey lines… 😉
hey Graham. Just came off a 3 day real estate investment seminar. So i guess the way to do it is buy a house, flip it, re finance it, rent it out and carry on. As long as the numbers work and you are cash flow positive (can even be break even, but i dont like breaking even) then you hold that property for 20 years and sell it and bank huge money. better investment then anything else (RRSP = waste of time unless you utilize it in different ways lol…i guess in america rrsp is equivalent to 401k or what ever you guys call it). bought my first property two months ago, going to convert basement into a suite (best investment for return when flipping a house) and once its done im going to “flip to myself” , which means re fi it, get all my money back and keep building my portfolio. maybe in a year we buy something together 😉 cheers
also do you leave the 20% of equity in the home or do you leave more? IM sure it depends on the scenario but having more working capital is always better. Heres my example. Bought a home for 255k, but 105k down (42% down), 40k in renovations, when done will be worth 350k (very conservative number). Im going to add a suite to the basement and rent out both top and bottom. my rent right now before re fi is 600/month. I can rent top out for 1200 and bottom for 800. Now, when i re fi should i take everything back out leaving 20% in, or leave more. i guess it all depends on the scenario and how the numbers play out.
+Chris Barreira yeah! That’s called the BRRRR method and it works really well!
Sorry Graham I believe you are wrong on interest rates. If the US dollar falls far enough, interest rates have to rise fast in order to justify foreigners holding US bonds. If not you will have a US dollar crisis, where real estate will fall regardless. If interest rates rise north of 5-10% you will see most real estate owners go bankrupt. Hence more way more supply with few to buy.
Isn’t it less risky to buy the cheap inverse bearish ETFs? It’s like $20 per share and a lot of them were worth more than $1,500 back in 2008 during the crash.
Dear Graham,
You are after new & adventurous things.
I too.Plz WATCH”BONSAI 5G”:Trees WITHOUT SOIL & WATER.
I just saw this video and you’re on point. I’ve seen people on YouTube give advise as if the market is concrete. Subbed.
+L00007 X001 I appreciate it, thanks for the support!
In other words 99% of investors have weak pullout game 😂😂😂 better to keep it in than pulling out
+Tony Oliver LOL 😂
I read a article about this sort of idea. If you took someone who started invested 40 years ago and they invested all of their money each time the market peaked, they would still have over a million dollars today
Love all your videos Graham, you always bring such good knowledge. P.S. just recently started craigslist and have already closed 2 leases and got a listing. Literally all thanks to you! Thank you!!
FUCK YEAH!! Youre killin it, well done!
Hi Graham, great video btw. You just forgot one thing, DIVERSIFICATION. that is all. haha, keep up the good work!
Hey Graham,
I know your a busy man but can you make some more fucking videos, please? Thanks
+Ian Bergman LOL dude I know, it’s been crazy. 12 hours of renovating a day, still doing realtor stuff, and then no time to make more videos 🙁 I promise more coming really will come back strong!
Hey Graham, I just rode in a Rolls Royce Phantom for the 1st for my 16th birthday. It was quite the experience, now I know how you feel getting chauffeured around all the time 😂😂
+Screen Lore Isn’t it incredible?? 😜
*consistently *
Excellent information I really appreciate all your hard work please keep up the good work!!!!!
+Abdur Amin thank you!
Honestly every city market in the US is way over priced, work at whatever job you have right now while minimize expenses to a bearable comfort level, and save save save. Make sure your credit stays optimal, buy when everyone is foreclosing.
I couldn’t focus on what he was saying, the little white fleck was bothering me the entire time.
+Kaede Yasu 😬
“macro patience”
I made 20k on my third try
Haha hindsight is 20k/20k 😉
Would you buy in to homes after hurricanes
+Patrick Wolf Probably not. It’ll likely be years before the area fully returns back to normal, until then you’d be stuck – maybe once things return back to normal.
First try:
What you just saw is exactly how the S&P 500 performed from the week of Aug. 22, 1986 to the week of Aug. 2, 1996.
You beat the market!
The $10,000 you invested turned into $37,008. If you hadn’t made any trades you would have made $10,528 less—leaving an ending balance of $26,479. You took a risk and it worked out, but there’s no guarantee you could do it again. Why don’t you try?
Don’t be afraid to miss an opportunity in stocks. “The secret isn’t that we get them all. It’s that we don’t miss them all.” -Warren Buffett
It said ” you beat the market”. Made 20,242 from 10,000
+VelociTrading woah!!! Nice!
If you invest in an S&P500 ETF long term, it is actually good for the value of the stock to drop. That way you can buy more shares per $1 at a low price. market goes up again, your cheaply bought stock, of which you’ll have a larger quantity, will all increase in value.
What you just saw is exactly how the S&P 500 performed from the week of Jan. 8, 1988 to the week of Dec. 19, 1997.
You beat the market!
The $10,000 you invested turned into $41,356. If you hadn’t made any trades you would have made $2,457 less—leaving an ending balance of $38,898. You took a risk and it worked out, but there’s no guarantee you could do it again. Why don’t you try?
eye opener. Chances of beating it are low and even if you do, over a long term you really don’t make out with a significant amount
Haha well done man, even though you beat it!
Yeah you don’t cash out like an idiot. Buy more at the lower price.
AGREED
I’m always happy. If the price goes up I’ve increased my net worth, if the price goes down I’m getting good prices. If you can think medium to long term you’re always winning.
I totally agree. Plus if you DCA, you’ll end up buying in on the dips as well.
Bah blah blah the market the market and don’t buy in high risk markets blah blah blah. BULLSHIT. Why do stock investors never give an example of a fucking STOCK that they have bought and made money on. Buy some piece of paper in a company and hold on to it for 20 to 30 years in hope that the shit doesn’t tank is fucking dumb and very old thinking. And this coming from a real estate guy? How’s that Sears stock that you bought 30 years ago doing? Maybe if you got the fuck out of California you would see that real estate is hands down the best investment.
I played the game and I beat the market with 21,000
The stock market timing game is cool but kinda broken.
It random lines miss the point of knowing how long the present bull or bear market has been, in real life we can see the present bull market has been ongoing for 10 years, this is a key indication for a crash whereas in the game this is not apparent
extremely intelligent video!
gotta pop my cat eyes in
That’s a pretty vague advice, you should balance your portafolio at least once every year, based on age, market conditions with the idea of capital preservation. There are ways to hedge your portafolio to prevent massive loses
In the last crisis, the market bottomed on 03/06/09, but we could only see that in the rearview mirror, nobody saw it through the windshield.
I always search random financial topics and your videos always pop up and they’ve been my favorite ones.
Thanks so much!! Make sure to subscribe though 😉
Thank you Graham!!
lol, beat the market almost everytime in that game….now whats tempting is look at our 10 yr mountain…seems like an easier game
Excellent video, backed up by facts. Re-iterates what a lot of people say that its best just to wait out the dips and not panic.
Time in the market > Timing the market!
Agreed!!
Great breakdown & advice man 👌
Out of 10 plays, I beat the market Once. Lmao. Thanks, that game is pretty eye opening.
Heads up: you forgot to filter out your swearing at around the 7 or 8 minute mark. I’m not offended but it might affect video monetization 🤷♂️
Thanks!! every now and then I miss one!
I took it twice, I panicked the first time and wouldn’t buy or sell the second time. I can’t even imagine this with real money.
Im nit yrying to time the market over n over again .just one time after the crash
Look 3 years later and the market is the highest it’s ever been!
The Fed controls everything now starting in 2009. Your whole theory is blown.
Unfortunately people Pay money to SoCal financial advisors to hear the same crap
Weird hearing you curse lol
Outside the swearing in the video . Information is still relevant today .
People lose money because they don’t understand the markets and they don’t have an investing plan. After studying various experts, I tried using the best from each. I’ve managed to get 50%+ per year since 2014. Not only that, but I’ve also learned to make money during stock market crashes.
I don’t mean to brag – I just hated the concept of investing money when the markets were not favorable to making profits. I spent six months trading on simulated accounts (TD Ameritrade ThinkorSwim). Initially, I lost big time. Progressively, I corrected my mistakes and started making money on a regular basis. I am far from greedy. If I don’t have a good feeling about the market on a particular day, I just turn around and go away until a good day comes.
I respect other strategies. Mine made me a successful trader. I learned to time my investments while reducing risks as much as possible.
Good luck to all.
Things to value in life freedoms , nature, peace of mind, and normal conversation.