At this point, it is very clear that the global economy will be entering into a recession in 2020. How low can the stock market go? How are you investing?
In this video, we will discuss some monetary and fiscal policy that has been proposed in the past week in an attempt to combat a recession.
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U.S. airlines spent 96% of free cash flow on stock buybacks… will the government bail them out? Comment your views below
My government just gave a $NZ900 million loan to Air New Zealand. I can see their reasoning as it is the only airline that has to have international flights to NZ.
Who we investing in? United, American or Delta? They are all down 80+% from highs…
Just because you flipped a coin 5 times and it landed on heads doesn’t mean it’s more likely to land on heads the 6th time. Every economic crash will either rebound or it won’t.
If the Fed uses taxpayer money to bail out the airlines they should be nationalized.
No doubt. They almost definitely will because those are the companies and companies lobby and gives congressmen millions each year
I believe a reformation is way overdue across the board. lets be solution- oriented, in a world of chaos. we came here to create and contribute. Not bend by circumstances and old systems that are no longer applicable. I am saying it is up to all of us to contribute, solve and utilize our resources humanly. sending light and love to whoever reads this.
That ad beat was fkn insane tho
Nate, I have a question that perhaps you can do a video on: with the latest interest rate cut, would it make sense for me to refinance my student loans? Mine are currently at 2.625%.
being in Europe in the entertainment/events/tourism area, within a few weeks I did loose everything including my job. The market will recover eventually but boy, my future in the next 2-3 years is just a black hole
hey stay in there, no use stressing over events beyond your control (as weird as that may sound). Just keep being resourceful and keep ur head up and at the end of the day you’ll be fine
I’ve invested x8 more than I normally do in Acorns +M1 finance & now I’m doing options in Robinhood, hope I can keep multiplying my money with Options before things start rising again
One global currency on the way
Getting financial advice from a 21 year old. What a time to be alive 😂
And he knows exactly what he is talking about. It’s great to see
I’m ashamed to say that other than a little bit of savings, I’ve been living paycheck to paycheck all of my life. I’m 51. No debts though.
Part 1 – The Virus
Now, this virus.
First of all, I just want as a disclaimer to say that it’s important to rely on official sources of information regarding the virus since they would never lie to you…
OK, so what’s up? Well, here’s what’s up:
This virus is the trigger for the biggest power play we’ve seen since 2001.
This is a perfect excuse for an economic crash.
This defers responsibility from those who are actually responsible and blames it all on this virus.
It also accelerates the inevitable trend towards a cashless society, and the much desired Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
We’ve had Christine Lagarde (former head of the IMF and current President of the ECB) and Mark Carney (former Governor for the Bank of England and current UN special envoy on climate action and climate finance) speak on digital currencies.
We’ve had reports from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The BIS is essentially the Central Bank for Central Banks.
Coincidence is a funny thing (just ask Larry Silverstein…):
In 2019, 1200 CEOs left their positions. That was a record year.
In the first month of 2020, 219 CEOs left. A new record.
On the topic of CEOs…
Part 2 – CEOs and Stock Buybacks
The financial metrics which incentivise executives have become far removed from operating performance.
The main source of demand for equities has been corporations (i.e.stock buybacks).
And this makes sense, incentives drive human behaviour. Pretty simple.
Now, this is the really infuriating part.
These corporations now want bailouts.
By the way, this will happen.
And just like ’08, profits are privatised and losses are socialised.
The Airlines, which feel they are entitled to bailouts, spent 96% of their free cash flow on stock buybacks over the past decade.
Now they want a bailout. Ridiculous!
Part 3 – Encryption and Privacy
While all of this is going on, the US Government has been sneakily trying to remove end-to-end encryption and it’s been working it’s way through Congress.
This concerns the EARN IT Act.
The premise of the bill is that technology companies have to earn Section 230 protections rather than being granted immunity by default, as the Communications Decency Act has provided for over two decades.
If the EARN IT Act were passed, tech companies could be held liable if their users posted illegal content. When internet companies become liable for what their users post, those companies aggressively moderate speech.
Part 4 – Practicality
Central Bank Digital Currencies are inevitable.
The NSA created the SHA-256 algorithm in 2001.
The NSA could of stopped Bitcoin early on if it truly wanted to (51% attack for example).
Why NOW allow a decentralised network of value transfer to develop, whereas previous attempts were snuffed out?
Well, going back to central banking: how about a centralised Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) that will allow a greater level of control, can facilitate negative interest rates, easier collection of taxes, etc.
For this to work, you need to usher it in gradually such that people have a decentralised alternative (i.e. BTC) and the mass public is more receptive to digital currencies more broadly. So BTC is the gold and CBDC is the ‘new fiat’.
The current situation is pretty chaotic.
But… ORDO AB CHAO
It was clear that the stock market will fall starting back in January. Everybody got surly surprised about the magnitude of speed.
What’s wrong with the Norwegian Krone?
Fk it i.guess ill take a small loan of 10k and buy disney, O , and other stocks at 2% interest ill pay it back within 7 months…
If you are fully invested now you have 60% 70% discount on companies you invested in.. So I’m down like 30% overall I just averaged down.. I’m keeping money at hand.. I’m okay with being down my portfolio of 24 Companies 20 can go Bankrupt BUT the 4 that survive will be worth more than my losses if Capitalism isn’t dead when this CV19 is over.. and I doubt Government’s will want that.. they need Capitalism it’s what controls the masses.. otherwise be chaos
Amazing…y’all still don’t get it. Keep counting nothing. Good luck!
Banks closed til further notice today were lower on the Dow No bottom in sight; my broker is closing on the 20
Of Mach til further notice the market
Will be down again
Dump your life savings into SPCE…..YOLO!!!!
Great video here!
if this is not going to be a really bad recession this time, then why is it that everybody has been talking about it as such for the past year at least? I did not even notice the last recession in 2008. this is the first one in my life that people actually talk about and are seriously worried. all crypto youtubers talk about it as well. you are the only person I have seen talking about it so calmly.
We are in a recession
Love all your videos. Thanks for explaining things so well. Be well everyone!
Alot of Americans live above their means so this country and its economy is heading for the toilet one way or the other.
Someone on Facebook was mentioning that the $1000 stimulus package would be taxed and we’d have to pay it back. How likely is this? Sorry if the question sounds ignorant. I’m trying to understand everything in detail.
Thank goodness for employment insurance, lovely Canada
If you are retiring in the next couple of years, oh no 🤦♂️ keep working, if you can find a job that is !
He speaks so much more eloquently than our president
So Boeing is still a buy right well when it goes lower?
If I get $1000 I’m buying shares of stock, lol.
This could get a lot more serious Kid low crop prices massive flooding in the Midwest last spring etc Farmers not paying back their operating loans for fuel fertilizer seed tires etc Farmers on average borrow several hundred thousand dollars a year to operate. If we have a bad enough break in this country we may all be trying to grow our own food. Buffet is a sack of shit
that fact that you dont see this as a depression means you shouldnt be managing money.
@hyp yes. Most money managers didnt see this coming an are saying this is a recession. Moron money managers who funneled boomers to index funds. Jeffrey gundlach saw this coming. He manages billions. As did keith McCullough of hedgeeye.
I like your video, recently it way more informative than Graham Stephan
So a recession means 2 down quarters in a row. We haven’t had a down quarter yet. We will have at least 1 down quarter. The policy they are implementing could prevent a recession. So this quarter is going to be terrible so next quarter it would be hard to be worse.
Expect a v shaped trend. Buy now. From having the best economy ever to not doing business, so if the businesses open next month there should be no recession. For their is no way the economy would perform worse then this quarter.
The Fed can print money out of thin air.
It would be nice if he new what he was talking about. Ten years is a long time, he may not even be alive in ten years. He needs a wake-up call, he is so wrong on so many account, taking advice from him is like taking advice from a fool. I hope no one is taking his advice.
I was just watching your previous recession video the other day. Thank you for this!
Your from Penn State? I knew there was something I liked about you
depression *
Love you Nate. You bring a calming wisdom in the midst of the storm!! ⛅
I lost everything…
Hi. You have a tiny mouth.
Sad thing is we cannot let them all fail or should we bail all of them. So we should set an example by setting up a raffle. Only a few will get lucky.
Hi man, you are amazing
So many economy experts all of sudden…offering “free” courses 😄😄
6k of investing cash on hand 4 walls covered and very good job security working for pilot flying j as a refined fuel cdl tanker driver, moving forward I’m investing 5-800 every week partly in oil& gas with high dividends/ Tesla stock, that guy Elon musk has insane drive and work ethic and I believe an overwhelming urge to succeed.
Is there an “Investing For Dummies”??
The difficulty for a lot of us is that during these times employment security becomes wobbly. People may lose jobs, get pay decreases, be put on stat sick pay etc. This makes it difficult to continue investing even though the stonks are cheap.
I had started saving extra cash in preparation for an eventual crash like this, so I could funnel it into the market when it was down, crash came earlier than expected though!
An ad a minute? First and last time watching one of your vids good luck
This might be a dumb question but… If I sell a stock in robinhood for a profit would I have to pay taxes on that profit even if I don’t transfer that profit out of my robinhood acct to my bank acct?
Your lens has corona virus
My wall has it
Nate is a lot more postitive than Peter Schiff!!!
Peter schiff sells gold
@Nate O’Brien and he sells DOOM 🙂
You are so young how do you know what happened in the last recession? You’re well meaning but you’re far to young for people to listen to 👍
Airlines should rise and fall on their ability to manage their business. The working poor are being crucified on a cross of debt.
You comments on the Great Depression aren’t accurate. Hoover was a very hands on president but he was very deliberate in his work which wasn’t talked about much. We do not know if what he did helped or hurt. The fed raised interest rates and decreased the monetary supply in an attempt to secure the banking system which was a large mistake.
Would you recommend continuing to pay off debt while this is happening?
One of the best things to do during this time to develop a new skill or side hustle. Stay safe everyone! We’ll get through this soon
No ads popped up..you must have mentioned Corona virus.
Anyone buying CCL?
You never see a newscaster talk with their hands. Is this a new sign language?
God he’s hot 🤤🤤🤤🤤 I would love for him to be my advisor 😈😈😈😈😈
Depression.
Crazy times we live in!! Stay safe & make passive income while you sleep is the answer IMO.
there is a shit ton to play out, it could still go way, way down from here. wait until things start to pick up again, its still freefalling.
When the top falls it gives a chance for the bottom to rise
Just curious, at 12:06 what would you get demonized for?
To summarize the 15min vid….I hope you have built up a good savings fund!!
13:08 No such thing as a free lunch. I like that. Nothing is free you will pay for it in some way. Good video, respect the talk you are well put together. New subscriber. Keep it up look forward to you keeping me posted. Thanks
If we are kept locked down for a month this will be different. The markets won’t exist after this hysteria
Waaaay too many ads. Could not enjoy the content
You can’t keep pumping money into the economy like the fed is. In the short time it works. Long term it’s not good. We may have just hit that roadblock. We shall see.
Can you buy ETFs?
When my stock holdings are down and my cryptocurrency holdings are up I know something bad has happened.
after watch so many of your videos, I think Nate for my future son would be good idea, however, i do not where the dad is ? lol
I have a general investing account where I was trying to build some savings for a house on Bettement. Should I change my allocation or just dance with it? Thank you.
Thanks dude for sharing this video with us. Very interesting to get you perspective on what’s going on at the moment and predictions over the coming months. Thanks to the internet, I am watching this video from France 😉
Can’t wait to watch the next one on this topic. Take care.
stocks are just a casino. You aren’t actually investing, you’re just hedging against inflation.
Cash flow is king.. dividend stock, real estate – dividend paying investments are where money is made.
Stagflation is coming. Which means interest rates are going to skyrocket.
Also – what are you reading about the lack of government response to 1929? Some of our largest interventions in history were in the Great Depression.
I want the 7hr breakdown on quantitative easing
Idk what to do as far as my 401k I have it low risk and still lost a lot of money how can I changed it
Great video! Nice to see one that’s not fearmongering and pandering to the panic wave.
For those who don’t know, 0% interest rate means a “liquidity trap”…it’s awful!
What books about investing do you recommend?
Or maybe a Depression
Everything is going to bounce back. Very few companies will not bounce back. Millions of dollars can be made in the next few months in the stock market. I made 500$ in 2 days based on a change of $5 a stock. Dropped to 10 then back up to 15. Study the markets, read, and buy and hold for long term growth.
This makes me sad as an artist and for my fellow creatives. When the going gets tough creatives are the first to be let go and we are seen as non-essential 🙁
Betcha credit card interest ain’t goin’ down haha! Hook or crook (yeah, crook), you tied to th’ whippin’ post!
The question I have is should I take out money from my bank account? Is there a chance I will lose all my money that is in my bank account? Thanks in advance.
Even if so you shouldn’t have money you need invested it should be more like your retirement account. So you shouldn’t take it out for another 20 years which the stock market would recover before you should ever take it out. 1:45
And if the markets never recover we have bigger problems than a market that won’t recover… Like revolution… 2:30
Naw recessions always happens at all time highs 5:00
You support a universal basic income? Disgraceful. I’ll never watch again. Why should I go to work then if others are getting free money? You are a disgrace.
The good thing about the inflation side of it is that the interest rate is 0%. It can only go up. That will help with controlling inflation.
Whole thing about this is it’s completely different. People literally can’t work in many cases because of the virus. A one time payment isn’t going to be enough realistically, so there’s going to be negative economic stipulations to that such as a noticeable jump in inflation along with increased unemployment. Could be a longer bear market than we’re used to seeing. But like you said, just hold on and invest wisely, the market will eventually go back up 👍🏻
Honestly enjoying social distancing. I am a bit of an introvert despite appearances. I have an emergency fund, I’ll keep investing broadly and stay focused on my long term goals
hi how are you? do you have a business email?
Can you make a video about those who havent lost their job yet. Sort of financial steps to follow in case recession takes longer than expected.
If you have your eye on investing long-term, then this is the time to buy, when the share prices have fallen dramatically. However, this pandemic has been an eye opener for me in terms of changing my strategy. This will not be the last global disaster over the next 20-30 years. As such, I don’t think it’s wise anymore to keep less than 50% of your net in cash. I’ll be keeping half of my money in savings and the other half in mutuals and ETFs.
Nate, Cerveza Corona Virus. Lol. Hahaha. Your is good. I grow up in Philadelphia but was born in Puerto Rico. Would your videos. Congrats.
as long as you did put all your money in the bankrupt hertz and made thousands
An amazing!!! Internet web page very conductive to work hard and earn cash on your pc is *hOMEpAY .m e* .
I can realte, Unfaultable
Jokes on you, I have no money already. I can only go up from here