Yale University economist Robert Schiller compares today’s market to that of 1929 but adds that a downward correction, “Is not imminent.”
Schiller also discusses the Federal Reserve, interest rates and the housing market.
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Trillion-Dollar Deficits Don’t Make America Great
But suburban kids do!
@Jonathan Johnson you must be PRO LIFE and CHRISTIAN lol
Tara Aliyeva your point there is?
Guessing, your neither of those things and thus in your head orders of magnitude better than he or anyone else that does hold these ideas/faiths?
If so, YOU are precisely what’s wrong with this country, what happened to the days where we could let folks have there own thoughts….without branding them as bad for having those thoughts..
@Tara Aliyeva imagine using pro life and christian as an insult, you’d have to be deeply delusional inside your bubble.
umm…..ok.
In 2009 the Fed set a precedent. They told the world no matter what happens we are going to support the stock market from collapse by printing money, flooding the system with cash, buying bonds and equities at the expense of taxpayers and future generational debt. It has been a free for all for anyone that believes the US Fed has the staying power to do this. If this was done by a private business person it would be called a Ponzi scheme but because its the Federal Reserve of Goldman Sachs doing it. It is just called smart economic management. People are allowing this to happen because no one wants to see their 401K or retirement savings drop. That is wonderful as long as you are over 40 and have all of these things. However, if you are a young person it is horrible because you are the one stuck with a ballooned national debt. Thanks, Mom and Dad you did a great job of providing a bright future for your children. (As if you really cared).
Baby Boomers are the worst generation EVER. Trump is a douche I am starting to think all he could do is file bankrupt and weasel his way out of it leaving many people owed money. He is a know it all moron
The fed is worthless.
Steve Patterson don’t worry it will crash and crash hard. Soon
It’s not Mom and Dad’s fault. It’s the greedy bankers and government officials that created the debt bubble. Mom and Dad just took advantage of the situation, which you probably would have done too if you have lived through that era.
@matt smith THE DONALD
THE SWAMP!
Hey, I’ve taken his classes on Coursera
IakonaWayne X2
Me too, Financial market 😃
YouTube for me
Can I see a conversation between Shiller and that AI robot?
First
This is as Pointed as Bob Shiller Gets … Just listen to Robert Shiller , Slowly … People under 45 have Never seen a Normal % rate Environment … Debt is Not Equity … Debt Has its Limits …
Yes, in a situation where housing prices are normal, not when they are still at bubble levels. Look up what housing prices were in the 90s and what they are now! Wages have not risen even remotely as much. So THAT’s where all the disproportions come in. And it’s a fallacy that the bubble burst in 2008. In reality it did not burst fully, as it was not allowed to do so, and so prices never came back down to natural levels to be in line with what people could actually afford. So that your average family on an average single income can afford an average small house. Second problem is small houses stopped being built in many places, only mcMansions were being built, whereas the inventory of small houses grew old and outdated (i don’t mean cosmetic baloney, i mean dangerously outdated technical things and dangerous substances in the materials, etc.). Nobody cares about this. This is the hidden issue behind everything which nobody likes to talk about. For two reasons – all those suckers who bought at the peak, and secondly the real estate industry (those agents driving around in BMW’s who don’t even know the difference between a furnace and a boiler). It’s a powerful force. Waiting for one of these schillers to talk about unaffordable house prices. Low interest rates is the absolute least you can do for people trying to buy a place these days. And did i mention exorbitant property taxes exacerbating the problem significantly? Or absolutely unreal college tuition costs? So don’t even go down that road of ‘need normal rates’. First make prices commensurate with wages, and then we’ll talk about ‘normal’ rates. You can’t have normal rates when nothing else in the picture is normal.
@comment Very True … L T V / Debt to Income is totally Out of Balance … America is in an Everything Bubble … Debt is Overweight … Not Sustainable …
@Luvbonne Exactly! And in many ways people have no choice. On the one hand you have greedy real estate people telling them buy buy buy (and of course they’ll never give up their 6%, even though it’s incomprehensible why they are even needed, as they often don’t even know the difference between a furnace and a boiler). But prices are unreasonable. Families barely make it on two incomes, whereas in a healthy economy they should be able to make it on one. And though i meanly said ‘suckers who bought at the peak’, i actually don’t think they should be complete held to blame. It was the whole situation. In fact it gets me mad how quickly banks and mortgage companies throw people out to dry the minute they fall behind on a payment, and this is why i would never as a buyer go near a foreclosure property out of principal no matter how tempting it is. My conscience will not let me benefit off of someone else’s tragedy. There should be WAY more protection built into the system. You can’t take a home away from a family, just like you can’t take their food away. Also people should be able to pay off places much quicker and own them outright. Prices should be such that this is possible. Dragging things out in 30 year mortgages only heightens the risk of something happening. Because things happen in everybody’s lives. And it’s hypocritical to tell people to save for a rainy day when they are barely making ends meet putting their kids through college. Yes, Americans spend too much, but why is there so much incessant marketing of junk?? We can’t come to work for a week wearing the same clothes, we will probably be looked as strange and even lose our jobs. But guess what, in Europe it’s not like that. We are all responsible for each other as we all interdepend on each other in some way or another. If you create a dog eat dog society, then don’t expect anyone to get by unscathed. Rich person driving through a ‘bad’ neighborhood right next to theirs and getting his car beat up don’t complain. You share the same planet with these people. Contemplate a little on how you or your parents or ancestors may have brought them to this, and how you are still indifferent and self-righteous. In the end it all evens out somehow. You will die like a dirty pig in a putrid bed no matter what you had. And all alone, because nobody takes anyone on their death journey.
@comment Yes , a Non Predatory Banking & Investing System with Basic Enforced Rules to Protect All parties involved … Real Fiduciary only exists in Our Dreams Now …
Rates have only been wacky since 2007
A good economist but not a great investor
@M. Morin Investor Hi i track my portfolio for project 1 million on my channel. Please join the community if interested.
@David Song my portfolio is largely megacaps
Youtube clueless idiot. You probably work in McDonald’s.
@David Song what do you think of VEQT + a tilt with VBR for small cap value
I’ve watched Wayne’s World multiple times on DVD. It has made me a better investor. What will work for you? That’s your (real) job to find out.
this man looks unhealthy.
The man is in his mid 70s with a full head of hair and a nobel prize 10 years ago.
@Goran Vlacic Fake Hair, fake news. Implosion coming, All bank assets worthless. Huge risk in the system, not priced in to anything. China can pull the plug at anytime and go Domestic = instant doom for the US economy. It could happen tomorrow!
@S Penderites lol at fake hair fake news. Agreed on what you said, but remember that the US Dollar is backed by something better than Gold, the US military …. so … China can pull at any moment. But it is not good for anyone.
You should see his net worth. Then tell me who is unhealthy, him (or you)?
@Roky Erickson rocks he also seems mentally ill! He can’t even finish a sentence. Money can’t buy health or love.
Back when this guy went to high school with Calvin Coolidge, History Class was sitting around talking about current events.
Nothing to hear ….great guest, sidetracked by unintelligible questions, shades of CNBC.
NET (Cloudfare) short term analyst rating is buy with $24 currently $18.50
Millennials: the generation that does all the complaining. – Baby Boomer Schiller.
Also Baby Boomers: Vietnam War protests, Union protests, strikes, women’s rights, gay rights, etc.
What are Millennials supposed to do? Not complain about the Baby Boomer’s Greatest Financial Crisis since the Great Depression?
Can’t wait to take your pension money in the next crash. Let me know if you want to workout. I love baby boomers with an attitude about how the next generation is at lazy. Are you educated? Probably not…. Let me guess you are 50lbs over weight live in middle America and have worthless kids. You want to play ball let me know.
Millenials got the shaft on college tuition, I must admit that much. However, Boomers never got to buy homes with 3% down payments with 100% LTV mortgages. It’s an odd situation where living large can happen even though you’re broke.
Simple math what is 20 percent of 60,000 and 3 percent of 400,000. You can inflation adjust all you want. People pay more now as a percentage of income for the same thing. Wages haven’t kept up with housing for 30 years.
What excuse will it be this time the Baby Boomers have for Millennials for causing the next Great Depression? That’s 2 Great Financial Crises in 2 decades! Do we board all the Baby Boomers onto a ship and send them off to their Viking funeral and blow up the ship? What’s the penalty for stealing Millennials house in 2006, bankrupting their savings in 2008, and repeating all of that for 2019-2020?
How is Tusla?
BigLBA1 When you go to the mall, someone may literally point a gun to your head! So yeah, take away that 3.5 trillion in consumer spending and see what kind of economy you would have. No growth equals a total crash in this Fake News economic system we find ourselves in. All reality has been removed from the “science” of supply side economics, so if enough people dare open their eyes the system will have to undergo a reboot. You don’t want to know what that looks like!
BigLBA1 The TAB will be paid when China says it will be paid. Probably sooner rather than later when they get tired of dealing with the know nothing Trump admin.
Susan Kelly I’m saying Corporate America screwed you, via China, if you don’t know who is Rich and whose poor you’re an idiot. Rich and Powerful have screwed you and most Americans systemically for the past 40 years. Wake up and smell the corruption!
Fast forward less than a year and the penalty is the same as in 2008- a bailout!
Going back to 1930’s F.T.R. ,did stop the total crash /changed the distribution of wealth ,tax reconstruction ,brought the big depression ,to a halt!
If you mean FDR well, no. He prolonged the Great Depression.
book sales video sponsored by the failed yahoo
And when it crashes all but those directly responsible will be hurt…….we need to hunt down and eat the top 2%…….. At least they would have contributed something…….
Book cooking: the witchcraft of malfeasance. I should pick this book up. Nobel prizes are a PR stunt devised to cover the dark legacy for the inventors of nitro glycerin.
I don’t think there will be another 90% market crash for another 50 years. We already had one from 2000-2003, in the Nasdaq. We only get those about once every 70 years or so. There will be the usual corrections and bear markets along the way, of course. We are entering a recession though, so a 30% bear market is certainly possible.
hahahahahahaha, o shi.. hahahahaha, I feel sorry for you dude
like it works that way… we will have a market crash and currency crisis.
It does seem like it shouldn’t happen for a long long time but everything that happened around me just before the last crash is happening again now… makes you think
Nice video – I enjoyed it. But the title is misleading. Schiller said that it is NOT as highly priced as 1929. Therefore, I find I must deem this video as FAKE NEWS!
Shiller,old, tired,socialist! Peace,love,dope,baby!
Experienced too, my friend.
@Ben Yes, if you are into bloody ,utopian,totalitarianism phased in slowly until idiots make their power play without mercy!
Click bait. He corrected himself by saying not as highly priced as 1929.
in some ways its the highest ever, price to sales tell the real story, highest ever.
The title is accurate. He says it is highly priced as it was in 1929, hence the title, indicating they were “both highly priced years”. He then adds more specific details that we are not as highly priced as 1929 – again, additional details, not a correction. Rewind the vid a few times, you’ll get it.
@Sasha 6:05 Shiller said the market today is “highly priced, as it was in 1929,” but not as high as in ’29. He never said “as highly priced as it was in 1929.”
In 2018 was even more overpriced than 1929, it has come down a bit, because earnings went up. But that might change soon
Wow. Most people in Mexico own their own home, have healthcare. Makes for stability of common people. They just build what they can afford and improve as they can.
Great, then why are so many migrating to the US??
Read about history and you will understand. Read about Chiquita Banana in Guatemala.
Read about the contras in Nicaragua, read about our annexation of Texas, cali, exc..
after you do that let’s talk.
comment the same reasons the Europeans and Asians did
comment so what ? how many Americans live
abroad
Why are more Americans fleeing America under Trump? They’re rich and know what’s coming.
Weimar Republic all over again.
Yeah, the crash of 1929 was all Calvin Coolidge’s fault !! He falsely motivated people to overspend and borrow to speculate in the stock markets. What the hell was he supposed to say in his speeches ? Run around the podium like chicken little and yell the sky is gonna fall ? And even if he did, you think anyone would’ve listened ? Like the friend who comes to you for advice and then just does what the hell he wanted anyway. People don’t want to hear the truth, especially when it means admitting mistakes. People always look for reassurance and have confirmation bias. That’s why over 90% of traders always go broke !!
david stewart
I disagree. You can trade successfully by being patient , using self disciple , good money management , and risk mitigation via stops. Keeping your emotions in check. Notice I specifically said traders , not investors .
The secret to trading , like life in general, is focusing on what you have control of, not what you don’t .
where are all these houses being built? What part of the country. Certainly not everywhere, in some places there hasn’t been much new construction in ages and housing prices are still way way above where they should be
Lots in southwest Michigan, im not sure there filling them all.
Any new houses built are way bigger than they need to be, yet small house inventory is very old in some places, yet very overpriced.
Agreed. Where I live in Virginia inventory for homes under $200k is scarce. Homes $150- $200k are going to be smaller, older homes that are fixer uppers with no central heat/air. I purchased a 2700sqft 111 year old farmhouse for $121k in 2018 and sold it one year later for $175k with only $5100 worth of improvements made. Didnt even have carpet put in it when I sold it and the floors were all scuffed up, were the original worn floors, with oil furnace and baseboard heat with one window a.c. This was a first home for mid-20 year old family, who gave full asking price because they kept getting outbid on other homes they looked at, and they had to get money gifted from their parents to assist with the downpayment. I felt bad because I dont think theyll be able to afford upkeep or bills, but one of their siblings moved in with them to assist with costs so they may be okay. It was the reset i needed though to pay off my debt so I am hoping the best for them.
The bigger the bubble the louder the pop
Harry Fire .
Just like my Farts
Why does this guy always smile like a village idiot?
Stocks have another 6 months to two years then crash
Undoubtedly! But the stock market isn’t the real problem. It only will react on economic like it did in 1929. Without the Repo-Emergency-Money from the FED (almost 100 bn per DAY!) we would be in very deep trouble right now and until Christmas it would be game over.
Let it all burn down , f joke to big to fail , stop all this corporate welfare on the backs of taxpayers following the rules not living beyond their means , while banksters gamble with your money…
Professor shiller’s theory is stuck in the wrong environment, pre-crisis. Things have changed and the fed literally will do anything to prop up asset prices especially stocks. Corrections in the new environment aren’t inevitable.
Isn’t that what they said right before the crash of 1929?
The black chick is really angry !!!!
Yahoo is a joke lmao. If u watch yahoo finance your 47 & have a 200K mortgage
Nothing substantive was said here.
Well, it wouldn’t do his book sales any favours lol.
Fluff
No
I’m afraid this guy is ivy league professor of economics and usually that means he’s an idiot in the real world
buy a house and get rich is back.
Yep. The Good ole Weimar Republic investment.
growing an economy with debt is not sustainable.
That was a worthless interviewer
Oops, he took a benzo, should have gone with a beta blocker!
Only the rich people stocks are doing well everything else is not at 52w high
Clickbait caption should read: “Market is highly priced, as it was in 1929.”
He did not say it is as highly priced as it was in ’29.
You saved me from writing this comment.
Let the Warren Buffet indicator be the market cap as of the close of the current year, divided by GDP for the following year. Here are some historical values of this indicator:
1928 83%
1932 48%
1968 97%
1974 37%
1999 148%
2002 84%
2007 118%
2009 72%
2018 161% all-time high
Year to date return on Wilshire 5000 = 19.6% as of 9.30.2019.
I conclude that the American stock market is more overpriced than it has ever been. A 50%+ decline in stock prices could well eventuate from the next (and inevitable) recession. I have set aside sufficient cash assets (mainly money market mutual fund accounts) to support my family 2020-2025.
1host, 1guest, 2 dolls
I’m not a defender of the market. But counterbalance whatever was said with the fact the market likes low interest rates and low inflation.
At this point I think I doesn’t have nothing to do with the markets in general. They just don’t want to add interest in the government humongous debt
Professor Schiller is very polite. I like him.
Debt stimulates growth. Its a tool, to much gas on the fire, and it gets out of control. The us consumer is in the best shape in decades. Many investors and banks have larger cash reserves then in 07. No 2 recessions are the same. Trump wants lower rates so we can have a weaker dollar increasing the effectivness of our manufacturing and ability to export. Among many other arguments.
I was enjoying the discussion about an important matter and the calm, logical manner Mr Schiller spoke. But I turned it of when that woman in the middle started screaming. Too hard to listen to…………..
T Borja Hi, I didn’t mean to be disrepectful to the Lady Speaker, Yes, her question was relevant, but the loud, fast way she spoke was just a bit hard for me personally to listen to. The whole subject matter they were talking about is an extremely serious one.
Every interview like this has a new book involved somewhere.
Yup sell books.
“Bland speaking style?” Man alive, Schiller is a painfully bland.
Excellent choice of guest and great interviewing style.
Some bullshit
Ponzi economy! Don’t worry the money printers 🖨 will just press a button creating money 💴 out of thin air & charge interest on it.
Bs didn’t say anything. Waste of time
At 6:05 he does indeed say “I think the stock market is highly priced, as it was in 1929”
Yes true . People are not paying attention
Bitcoin 👌🏽
Clickbait
When you have a system that unfairly subdizes the rich (rent-seeking) and doesn’t give the poor a fair game, a Depression is the result.
Why?
If the poor can’t participate in the economy, how can they buy the rich’s crap?
This is simple logic.
This country needs to get back to its old ways in which we didn’t encourage leeches.
Exactly, the rich need to realize the second there’s a cap on the middle and working classes’ prosperity, there’s a cap on their own.
‘But muh Quantitative Easing…’
When the currency crisis happens, I will laugh my a55 off when the rich lose funding for the police and their government.
And who’s going to buy their crap when the Boomers die?
The rich are lemmings. Bahahahaha.
An economist that thinks a presidents personal tastes affect the economy at large? That it changes individual behavior in the housing market! Wow. Only a Yale man could think that lol
CLICK BAIT. Move on..
And two months later its even higher
Housing crisis was narrated with the quote “house prices will never go down”, now people say “the bonds will never go down”.
It’s the Nobel prize thingy too! Getting the clear views and his commentary Bigly reason also?
KB Homes must have a Schiller expense account.
He’s absolutely useless. He can’t be relied upon to give an honest opinion. You can just tell he’s holding back by addressing the questions with simplistic answers without any depth or forecast.
When listening to a Hidden Brain podcast the other day where Schiller was being interviewed it occured to me how much he sounds like Norm MacDonald the comedian. I can’t shake it now. They sound so similar. only one guy is highly respected for his intellect and the other for famously being daft (or at least that is his schtick). They both have a similar sense of humor only hard to imagine Schiller making a joke about LSD being a rip off because he never experienced the flash back that he was told was something he should expect.
This guy has no new insights. Has a noble prize but could learn a thing or two from YouTubers.
so now it is finally here with this covid-19 pandemic
What did they say, other than finding some way to infer it’s all Trumps fault?