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THE 2024 HOUSING MARKET:
Home prices have just recently hit yet another all-time high in November after rising for 10 straight months – more and more Americans are beginning to rush back into the housing market with record down payments – and nearly HALF of those surveyed on Twitter said that they were likely to buy a house in the next 2 years.
WHY THE REAL ESTATE MARKET MIGHT DECLINE IN 2024:
1. LOW AFFORDABILITY
CNN reported that “38.6% of the median household income is required to make the monthly payment on the average home purchase” – and, typically a home is considered “affordable” if the monthly cost is less than 30% of the area’s median income. This, unfortunately, has resulted in 99% of the United States being unaffordable for the average American making $71,000 per year.
2. HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT
Since 1955 – “the U.S. economy has always experienced a recession within two years from every quarter in which inflation was above 4% and unemployment was below 5%, as they are today.”
3. CHANCE OF A RECESSION
According to Realtor.com, “A recession in 2024 would likely weaken housing demand beyond its current low level, and if it were significant enough, it could stress existing homeowner finances enough to prompt some to sell, reversing the supply-demand balance that we’ve seen in the last few years.”
4. EVERYONE THINKS IT’S A BAD TIME TO BUY A HOME
Only 16% of people believe that now is a good time to purchase a home, which is a record low.
WHY THE REAL ESTATE MARKET MIGHT CONTINUE GOING HIGHER:
1. LOWER INTEREST RATES
Jerome Powell indicated that we’re likely going to see 3 rate cuts in 2023 of 25 basis points each, which would take the federal funds rate down to 4.5%, and likely leave us with mortgage rates leveling off around the 5.5-6.5% range.
2. MORE SELLERS IN 2024
Recent research suggests that the “30-year fixed-rate mortgage falling to 5.5% is the “magic mortgage rate” that would be enough to push more home buyers to purchase homes.”
3. THE US IS NOT IN A RECESSION
According to Jerome Powell, the economy is gearing up for a Soft Landing in 2024 because inflation is largely under control, GDP is strong, and consumer spending is robust.
4. SEASONALITY COULD BE THE ONLY DROP IN PRICES
Even though most seasonal pricing tends to be a difference of 8-12% off the sales price, some locations, like the Northeast and Great Lakes, lead the nation with a “22.1% variation between summer and winter sales,” which means right now could be a good time to negotiate.
5. HOUSING, LONG TERM, TRENDED HIGHER (SO FAR)
Over the last 100 years, housing prices have steadily increased as new construction constantly lags the growing population.
HOW TO PREPARE:
1. GET A 30 YEAR MORTGAGE
A 30-Year mortgage gives you the flexibility to still make a lower minimum payment and save the extra money if the circumstances require it.
2. GET A FIXED INTEREST RATE
This prevents your payments from suddenly being increased 5-7 years in the future if interest rates are somehow higher than they are today.
3. REFINANCE IF RATES GO DOWN
This allows you to save more money on your monthly payments.
4. AVOID SELLING IFYOU DON’T NEED TO
Ideally, by not selling, you’ll have the time to ride out any fluctuations in price long enough for them to recover and bring you back to profitability.
5. ALWAYS KEEP CASH ON THE SIDELINES – JUST IN CASE
The reality is, anything can come up, at any point, that will end up costing you money.
6. ONLY BUY A HOME YOU CAN COMFORTABLY AFFORD
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Didn’t ask + I’m 100% better than Graham ☠️💀⚡️⚡️😁🔥
Is a crash supposed to be bad thing or what
There won’t be a crash. These clowns have been using this clickbait since 2021.
Dude!!! I’m astonished how piss poor your real estate advice/knowledge truly is. SMH🤦♂️
@@mr.liquifier8343 if you are in a selling position it’s bad . But if you are buying, it’s like black Friday in the property market. The best sale was in 1929 when people could buy properties at a 69 % discount.
Hey Graham, what investment opportunities do you believe exist and give a strong payoff after a housing crash? Do homebuilders make more or less money historically? Are there industries tangential to home construction and real estate that are strongly affected?
I’m investing in my health and education .. let’s all have a great 2024 💪
I have a small doubt. If the average median income in the US is roughly $74,800, which equates to $6,000 per month, and considering 15 year or 30 year fixed mortgages which cost around $3,000 per month, doesn’t that mean that it’s about 50% of household income instead of 39%, could you give an example to explain the article during the start?
“Double up the payments. Easy”
💀
You are living in lala land of you actually think the Americans will allow their biggest asset to crash. They’ll find a way to keep supply artificially low whether it’s more restrictive zoning, development, or financial qualifications
It’s all about foreign sweatshop profits investment and the gravy train from China and India has come to a stop.
Most of recently built homes are just junk, they wont last the time it takes to pay them off without major repairs.
FOMO will get ya in the end
Unfortunately there are nothing I can afford in the market right now. However, I started to see the price cut 10k and up to 40k.
Graham, can you help me?? I’m a single mother living in New York City. I have some cash to invest, but I have no fucking clue what to do guide me guide me guide me
Grant great video as usual,I hope if there is a crash it will be short lived thanks for bringing us this valuble content ahead of the masses you are one of the main reasons I started my channel because I learned so much from you.
No housing market crash.. rates drop and assets will skyrocket . Houses will be more expensive
The problem is we can’t even afford to buy a house in California as a first time home owner
The problem is that even with my income in my area, there are no homes that I can afford. Literally no homes. With a higher than median income
Been in the business a long time. Be careful what you share and how you share. Your best clients will become your worst enemies if you spin things, they buy, and you end up wrong.
On the “get a 30 year loan, and pay it off early if you want to”, watch for two things: front loaded interest, and pre payment penalties.
Front loaded interest isn’t a real thing. It’s just you paying the interest on your principle, ie, the extremely obvious way that loans HAVE to work, mathematically.
@@AUniqueHandleName444 You obviously know nothing about this. Look up “rule of 78s applies” as well. The term “front loaded interest” has been used for decades in reference to loans.
@@nedkelly2035Come on man. The interest isn’t “front loaded” it’s that you are paying interest at the highest point of your loan in the beginning, obviously. As the balance goes down so does the allocation toward interest.
You know what , keep thinking whatever you need to rationalize still being a renter. 👌
Thank you Joe Biden🙏
My men you need to stop clickbait people for the love of god 😊
F buying a house, living in an apartment is so bad. That im thinking to go homeless.
They just raised $100/month when i signed the new lease. R u kidding me. Im am not able to survive I don’t know what to do.
Car insurance went up by $35
Health insurance went up by $17
Electricity went up by $45
Apartment rent went up by $100 a month
Everything else went up by 30%-40%
It is so hard to survive nowadays.
There can’t be a crash. There aren’t enough buyers or sellers.
Everyone who bought a house in the last 15 years (and has a mortgage) isn’t going to sell or buy.
Wherever you are right now is where you’re going to stay
Great… it seems that we still will need to be millionaires to own a house in next few years. Fk that – I hope demographic collapse will at some point destroy this bubble.
I really appreciate all the YouTube financial gurus who have accurately predicted all 36 housing market crashes that have happened in the last six months. I know it takes a lot of work to make those sad face/lighting strike/house on fire/fed chairman’s laser eyes/ chart pointing down with no context thumbnails. Keep up the good and honest work.
……..
you probably would have been thankful if they made 36 videos in 2005. and that doesn’t mean they were predicting 36 crashes, just one. and it happened. and it will happen again.
@@seanoconnor8138 I wouldn’t have seen any of this doom and gloom stuff in 2005 because there wasn’t a perverse incentive algorithm that rewards content creators for posting clickbait thumbnails and headlines that prey on concerned people. Negative emotions are addictive and content creators use sensationalism to drive clicks and make ad revenue off of decent hard working people like yourself who only want to be informed. Believe it or not, people who talk positively and help people navigate the market realistically don’t get put in to your suggestions at the rate of all the doom sayers. I’ll tell you what’s going to happen this year: rates will go down, average prices will drop a little each month, inventory will loosen up in the spring, and people who want to buy their first home will have a happy election when the candidates are falling all over themselves to say they will be the one to improve the affordability of housing which will increase public confidence. What there won’t be is a “collapse”.
@@seanoconnor8138What would be the first time home buyer today was like 10 years old in 2005, so I don’t think they cared if he would have made 36 videos back then.
They’ve been predicting this crash since about 2017. They haven’t gotten it right once and housing prices have gone up substantially in that time.
Dude you totally nailed it with this comment. I’m going to steal it. Lol
New watch? 👀
It’s not going down because of investors buying up everything with cash. Blackrock and Vanguard are causing this because if they fail, our government bails them out with our tax money.
South Florida is totally different from the rest of the country, specially Miami. What would be your forecast for Miami and South Florida in 2024?
different year same message…you know at some point you will be right…
This guy already said Americans would run out of money by January 1st. That was a lie. Why would anyone believe this kid
Just ignore used housing markets and if buying or buy new let home owners keep it forever.
I thought the retiremen of the Babyboomer was going to cause a glut of big homes and a resulting housing crash as retiees moved ot Florida. I think instead people have stayed in their homes and are working longer blunting any price decrease or crash.
More click bait crash bro garbage.
Unless UE goes way up or people stop wanting to live under a roof theres no way prices are going down.
i clicked this video just so i could downvote it. This guy is purely click bait, he has no idea and doesn’t care about u
Rates are high- but that means competition is low. Many on the sidelines waiting to hit the market when rates drop down again. Can’t believe we were at 2.85apr just a few years ago… Bidenomics!
It’s always interesting to view a bipartisan perspective. As if the other side isn’t just as bad. 3.00% under Trump is part of the reason we’re in the situation we are now. The rates should have never gone that low! And all the people who scooped up those homes at that low of an artificial interest rate are not going to sell.
This guy moves his hands more than a DEAF INTERPERTER
The difference here for unemployment is population, early boomer and X retirements. We have poorly performing immigration for many years. That’s largely why, and if has caused wage losses for corporations and small businesses.
He was saying this over a year ago… Still no housing crash
truly an annoying pitch.
I get calls every day from people who have been evicted , and looking for a rental. People are struggling. Looks like a recession to me, but I’m no economist.
There will be no housing crash , no matter what happens government will print trillions to lift the lenders out of the mud. Housing and warehousing will explode mortgages can be extended to 50 years . In essence making everyone renters not home owners.
I don’t think people know the true definition of what a housing crash is lol. Housing market is NOT going to crash folks.
I love getting advice from a real estate investor. Why don’t you invest in something that isn’t a basic human need, and maybe we would see housing at an affordable price. Just slimy
This only applies to the US.
Housing crash it will not happen
No. Something worse will take place
Devil’s advice
Nobody looks at Japan. What happened there will repeat itself globally
Don’t deliver disastrous news as if it’s a baseball game. Valid content, poor presentation.
My Dad bought 1/3 Acre lot and built a house on it in 1974 for 40K.
His annual salary as a PhD at a local college was 12K.
He raised a family and paid the mortgage on a single salary.
He sold it in 2008 for 450K.
Those days are gone.
Everyone is F’KD
You are ALWAYS saying the market will crush! I didn’t bother to watch the video, I just saw the thumbnail and came here to drop this comment!
great content
Build your own house
I’m looking for a seller finance deal in South east Texas. Harris county area. If anyone has anything, let me know!
DOOM tubers have been calling a crash for YEARS. STILL WAITING!!!!
One thing I’ve learned, things may happen, but never in the timing its expected.
Graham, if supply isn’t greatly increased, we won’t see prices drop significantly. We just don’t have enough housing. Prices may come down but I don’t think we’ll see anything close to what we saw in “08. People will just have to rent from those with the money to build large multi-family.
You are pretty funny g
Stop the bs each time your guys say it will drop it goes the opposite
In my opinion, a housing market crash is imminent due to the high number of individuals who purchased homes above the asking price despite the low interest rates. These buyers find themselves in precarious situations as housing prices decline, leaving them without any equity. If they become unable to afford their homes, foreclosure becomes a likely outcome. Even attempting to sell would not yield any profits. This scenario is expected to impact a significant number of people, particularly in light of the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living..
A recession as bad as it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short-time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advice but get buying, cash isn’t king at all at this time..
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Bro get to the damn point.
Unemployment is higher than It’s ever been if you use the actual numbers instead of the Biden administration’s made up numbers they use, the same way they made up covid death numbers and threw in people that died of old age and car wrecks to the covid death count. Every single number the Biden admin has put out for a statistic has been a gigantic lie and it literally in it takes a smidge of common sense to see it.
COUGH-COUGH- same culprits-
Graham, do you have a white sports car in your living room?
Can you make a new video on CDO’s and their effect on the market?
Like you would know!
Clickbait as usual. Useless
lol these little kids trying to figure out the market cracks me up. go get your cookies and milk
Tom lapri kid is at it again. Negativity for views
A house I just had an eye on for pure fun lowered its price by $105,000. From 600k to 495k. Still overvalued by 40k according to the zestimate.
Curious as an idiot…. Why can’t a bank set a standard of requirements for a borrower and lend out mortgages at set rates based on their qualifications. Mortgage rates should be individualized to the borrower shouldn’t they?
You’ve been saying this for the past couple of years. Nice clickbait.
Scammer
Nobody knows if and when the housing market will crash. I used to be good at predicting but then my crystal ball broke. 😄😆😒😒😒😒😒
Unemployment stops counting people after they havent worked for x amount of.time
These videos are pointless. You cant predict the future in the near term. And everything will happen at some point. And no one knows when.
You made this claim in 2019.
Do you still have that mentor program you had awhile back?
But I had been hearing the housing market crash since 2006.. every year they say the rent will go down.. guess what? Ever since I started working a huge chunk of the salary goes to rent and utility bills I told myself maybe I eat too much but even if I live on water and coffee still won’t make me well off as again housing and bills keep on going up while salary stays the same..
This guy is a clown these days.
Clickbait, thumbs down
Housing in America is almost free. Buy now before prices skyrocket this year and next. In Canada a garage in Canada with no house costs twice what a house in America costs.
hair transplant?
AriOna we had what they said 80k evictions for dec 2023 the last time the numbers were this high was 2005 houses were 240k then houses now in my state has double from 240 so $440k gets u a old home nothing new and so cle family 1500 sq door home. My friend works at drive time she saids 80% of people are behind on car payments at her drive time place 50k customers called to make payments that’s sad
In Arizona it has to and everyone else people r homeless streets r full
Hotels motels airBnB full here!
Why would there be a recession in 2024? I’m thinking maybe 2025.
Unemployment will go up before prices go down.
Hey , can you explained to me why Yotta is stealing from the poor!!!! A small balance fee!! Wtf! Your make all this money and you steal from the poor. I thought you were better than that.
I predict a ton of foreclosures.
Click bait!
Is that a real Ford Gt behind him
Graham u went on a rant and raze about ally spending buckets. Because of said feature the front of my phone is completely trashed
Rates cuts gunna Spike House market again….Gunna cash my equity out soon!
When they start lower interest rates, get ready. It’s the beginning of the crash. The interest rates are actually what’s preventing the crash right now.
Usa is organized to create stress.
9:30 that is not what This Is John Williams is saying.
Fed
The feds destroyed housing along with blackrock and others working with them. F THEM!
House prices need to crash by 80% plus…
Houses should never be over 75k. Any higher is absurd. My dad bought houses at 5k, 15k, 25k, 50k, and last at 100k, Now which sells for 750k. Its INSANE AND BS. Democrat states are trash.
I’m saluting 🫡 you for saying “according to Jerom Powell, we are prepared for a soft landing” with a straight face and not cracking up with laughter.
But seriously, do you actually believe him or the media when they say “we are preparing for soft landing!”??? I feel like they don’t realize how really “high” they are
Try buying a house in London
Trump 2024