Let’s talk about the 2023 housing market, why payments are skyrocketing, and what experts believe will happen throughout the rest of the year – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan | Follow My Newsletter For The Latest Information: http://grahamstephan.com/newsletter
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THE 2023 HOUSING MARKET:
A recent index found that “just 38.1% of homes sold between October and December were affordable to US families earning the median income of $90,000.” Because of that, just about every other location posted an average month-over-month decline of 0.4%.
Zillow also found something similar, noting that – “there were 16.7% fewer new listings than last January, and 29.8% fewer than in January 2021.” However, even though there are fewer listing coming on the market…the homes that DO come on the market, STAY on the market substantially longer…leading to a “19.4% increase in inventory, year over year.”
We’re also seeing a very similar shift in RENTS, with prices rising at the smallest pace in almost 2 YEARS.
As Redfin explains, “price growth is slowing due to increasing supply and waning demand,” with rents falling as much as 6.7% in areas like Phoenix – simply because – more people are becoming landlords.
Homeowners are currently able to charge a high rent, relative to a low mortgage rate – and, equivalent properties are impossible to find – at the same monthly payment. That means, as long as they’re not cash-flow negative…homeowners can afford just to RENT their property, with the mindset that – they’ll be able to hold out long enough for the market to recover.
Although, on a more positive note – depending on who you listen to, the overall impact PROBABLY won’t be THAT bad.
For example, Goldman Sachs expect national home prices to end 2023 down just 2.6%, with a TOTAL peak-to-trough decline of only 6%. As they explained: One, there’s a LOT of untapped equity acting as a buffer, so VERY few borrowers would be underwater on their loan. Second, 90% of mortgages are at a fixed interest rate, so – payments will stay the exact same. And third, people aren’t over-leveraged like they were back in 2008.
CoreLogic even believes that home prices will still INCREASE by 2.8% this year, simply because there’s a massive shortage of inventory – and, only a few markets risk seeing more than a 10% decline from where we are now – so, for all intents and purposes, we’re most likely not seeing anything CLOSE to what happened throughout the Great Financial Crisis.
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Hey everyone! This year, all videos will have a link containing the source material for each piece of research that’s cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as i can, and the additional resources should help for anyone who wants to look into them further – enjoy! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MPf_jkMTB-kiodJMd1TRqjNb8E5J1ZYPZ1Dmh9FbDv8/edit?usp=sharing
Raise your hand if you been watching Graham Stephan for a long time 🤚🏻
No FTX link?
Stop saying what’s up Graham it’s guys here. 😠
Silicon Valley Bank bankrupted! Better pull your money out of your small regional bank if it is pooled in bank with a lot of gold bugs! They will bank run even in a good economy. Never bank with any regional banks that are in areas where people don’t trust anyone.
I actually unsubsribed due to feeling your videos becoming more emotion based. Rediscovered this video, found this comment, and now I re subscribed ty bro
Let it burn 🔥
Hi Graham, is public an app only or can it also be used on desktop?
Like the DIABLO font of DOUBLE TAP Book
There is no point on talking about price drops if the interest rates just keep climbing. What ever someone was going to save on the total price is no doubled or tripled on long term interest rates.
Great video! I love Barbara! I do think real estate is so hyper local. In Orlando Florida, my business is super busy with buyers and sellers. Lots of activity. But let’s see what happens in the spring market. Thanks!
Graham, thanks for continuing to create great content. Can you comment on the Midwest real estate market? It seems like we have not had the price drops that coastal states are seeing.
You can make a quick internet research with his name *JACKSON STEN MARSH*. The rest of the information is there for you to read and get in touch.
What city exactly?
I’m a Realtor here in the midwest
@Keagan Marten so answer her question !!!
The Midwest real estate market will drop but not significantly like Phoenix, Los Angeles, Ect, or Western States, we may drop upwards 10% rather than the west 20-40%
hello Sir I have 25000 in cash is there anyway you can help me invest the right way to grow this small amount of money.
I like the worst listing photo lol. A crazy cat lady, clearly.
FTX Boy
I love the interview!!!
All those people “sitting” soon might be “shitting” when they lose their job or get compensation cut and can no longer afford their mortgage, no matter what the interest rate
Was interested to hear from Barbera that supply is still not outweighing demand. Why is rental price growth decelerating? Doesnt sound like landlords have an incentive to slow down their rent increases (…yet).
Would be interested to see a video about inflations impact on rental vacancy rates (maybe high vacancy rates is incentivizing landlords to hold their horses a bit with rent increases?) and how the direction of vacancy rates look in the future
Bs never a super market for real estate. It was induce by artificially orchestrating the markets. Realtors have keep the lie alive. It never was a so called bull market for real estate they made it look that away. They lured the American people into these mortgages leading them down a very bad path. This is similar to planned obsolescence.
Cannot wait to see realtors, brokers, banks, and builders laying off. I’m 100 percent sure I’m getting laid off at some point. Bring on the thrashing of housing and markets. It all needs to crash 50%. Sooooooo much fake wealth.
Minneapolis market is so wack like really bad. Housing still going over ask. 12 houses for sale in a suburb of 70,000. Brutal
Graham what do you think of the Florida market?
im sleeping in random cars at the local auction. Lost my apartment in the pandemic due to racism
I don’t see much reduction here in east bay. Hopefully we have some meaningful reduction further this year
Hi what’s the website to your real estate course?
Real estate agents are the worst you can listen too as like in 2006, they all told you all will get better and then……. NEVER listen to anybody, just understand the maths and the finance situation with the economy. Nobody likes maths or does maths courses and thats why they all failed back then and the shorters like me, then and now are making money and soon a TON as the implosion occurs and nothing can stop it…
Doom and gloom? I want a dumpster fire horrible crash so I can put my family in a forever home. I wanna buy the blood of corporate greed, who knows just like any good anime maybe I’ll become what I hate the most but I need a dumpster fire market for this to happen.
People scoff about the connection between real estate and pension plans. This morning, Blackstone has stopped withdrawals from REITS. How’s you pension plan doing, I mean really doing?
The fact that Barbara can put out so many offers and wait for one to bite. Super boss there
What’s up Graham it’s guys here . . .
🤠
Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I’m still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
While there’s more pain to come, investors should look for stocks like Royal Philips NV and Alstom SA that have been beaten down enough that they’re a bargain or get a good portflio manager…
Open door homes are the worst! Fix ups are really bad.
Crash crash crash
what’s up Graham its guys here….????
Serious question. Is it financial suicide to try to become a real estate agent this year?
Ps I’m so happy you and Barbara talked I love her so much 💕💕
First time home buyer here! We close April 12th!! Hi Stephan!!
Great time to buy a house to live in
Los Angeles is all the way up$$$$
Hey whats happening im Boston Ma i been looking for a year for a family home. im really anxious to buy but at this point i feel like i should be standing on the side lines. what are your thoughts more specific to Massachusetts.
Hi Graham, love your videos!!
Is there a way you could post something regarding FL or even just Miami ? Here it feels like prices just go up every day as well as rents and it isnt stopping 😂
Throw Fort Lauderdale right in with Miami. Its nuts! 😵💫
90k is nowhere near the median income most people make like 20 -25 k a year two parents in a household would be 50 k or less everything is just to expensive homes need drop in price drastically people wonder why there’s homeless when a house in the ghetto cost 800 k it’s out of hand
really doesnt feel like prices are coming down.
“What’s up Graham? It’s guys here!” I’m here watching Graham for the first time after seeing him on Tom Bilyeu’s, Impact Theory. Am I the only one who heard that? Or am I literally the only one who doesn’t know that Graham starts every video with that goofball open? (Okay, it’s me… II just watched his open on other videos.’m obviously a newbie to Graham humor…)
Build your house by yourself in a state that easily allows it.
i think the focus should be to establish a brokerage account for new borns, and maintained by the parents until 17 or 18. heavy focus should then be placed on contributing 50% of the 18 year olds income on the account each month, until the person reaches an age where the brokerage account can pay for the home. the way you beat a compounding issue, is by having something that also compounds, brokerage accounts.
Great idea! Doing that for my kids.
Cool that you got to sit with Barbara. 🙂 “The best time to buy real estate is the worst time”.
FTX buddy
When will the California house market crash? It’s really hard to live out here…
Jeesh ! How do you eat if half your paycheck goes to housing!
Barbara out here regurgitating that same stupid 17-18% argument
Whats up Grahm its guys here what a intro . Common dude 😂😂😂
You’re not supposed to buy homes to make money That’s the problem..
You’re supposed to buy homes to live somewhere. Stop trying to milk the market for your greed.
It’s always good to have varied perspectives on the market! Thoughtful analysis
The intro 😂😂😂😂
Am I the only one to notice his greeting…his said hey Graham it’s guys here..lmao
If one more person brings up the “back in my day, the rate was 177181%”.. 😠
I don’t know how they’re expecting the first time home buyers on the average median income for households around $50,000 to be able to afford these outrageous home prices with the interest rates being as high as they are you’d basically have to put down almost $80,000 to reduce the pricing per month down to where most people could even afford it. And I’m including myself in that lol
We all know that a significant number of the new home inventory wherever it exists will be rolled into the rental market not by the builders but by the collateral lenders once they take back those assets. Rental supply will definitely increase wherever there is new home inventory presently being liquidated!
I don’t know how or why you think the office market isn’t soft? From everything I’m seeing, the office market is getting crushed due to vacancies and lingering wfh trends
I sod 120 homes that i rented glad to be out of that crazy world.
9:06 that’s a very good tactic !
“idk what people are squawking about” ok lady you probably bought a house for $30k so 17% interest wasn’t crazy. I can’t even find a home listed in my area for less than $450k (which are dumps) with a raised interest. That is why people are squawking… It’s not rocket science. She could buy a house at 18 and I can’t at 30. It’s a major problem
My spouse and I are adding a variety of stocks/ETF to my present holdings for the long term, We’ve set aside $250k to start following inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, I believe it is a good time to capitalize on the market for long-term gains, but it wouldn’t hurt to know means of actualizing short term profit
@Shaw Cohbam wow ,that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.
Isabel Linda Dueri” is my portfolio-coach, I found her on Bloomberg where she was featured, I looked up her name on the internet. Fortunately I came across her site and reached out to her, you can verify her yourse
Saw her profile
@Shaw Cohbam Thanks, I merely looked her up on Google and was highly impressed by her credentials; I got in touch with her because I need all the help I can get. I just set up a phone call.
I use Harry balllicker he’s great 😊
Ford GT….for real?
I have 160k in equity. Would you sell to buy a couple of rentals?
So this is a bad year to buy a home? My wife and I are finally able to get a home in the $150k range and wanted to try to move somewhere this summer.
whats up graham guys here was that on purpose or what
These blanket assessments of the market are horrible and misleading. not every area in every neighborhood in every city are performing the same way.
ya, we got nothing to worry about, its not like the whole banking system is collapsing or anything.
How much will it take for you all to stop trusting “authorities”? … the majority of them are lying to your face in order to make millions/billions.
Dude opened with “What’s up Graham, It’s guys here!???” 🤣
It is important to note that home values are falling in some areas but in many areas, home value increases are still strong, like in Florida.
There are so many people moving to Florida still. Not enough homes for the amount of people.
I need them to keep buying up the houses in the south of Florida so I can get a cheaper house in north Florida 🤧
I know Wall Street is going all-in on rental property in the same manner. It’s a cascade of events that will lead us back to 2008’s recession.
That’s because the rich are trying to sell there assets. People are just being smart and not buying
F*** Ribbon and these corporate home buyers that essentially drive up the prices.
I subscribed ….. where is my house? ⏱
Just sold my parents home (Mom is living with me) and I could not be happier! I have spent the last year, and will continue to spend this year, cutting down my liabilities and hiding my assets.
9:00 The “squawking” Barbara, is that the price of the home equivalent to the median income sure was a LOT different when interest rates were 17%. Immediately makes it hard to not dismiss any opinions she has on the current housing market.
Crash burn housing market. So more than just investors and corporation’s can afford a home. No banking regulations? Sorry. No handouts. Bail yourself out. A vote different next election.
In hawaii there’s thousands of single homes now available because our government has banned airbnb.
But.. until another great financial crisis happens again! Now we could see a continue decrease in housing price. Great time to be an investor with loads of cash.
so u saying we should bet againt the housing market like in the big short ?
Don’t act like you never said the opposite of this Graham. We all saw you gaslight Micheal for pulling out of real-estate. What do you have to say for yourself? Stop acting like you aren’t giving financial advice when you tell people what to invest in and how to use their money. You will continue to get sued if you don’t
Soooooo its not a bad time to buy realestate?
Take a shower
Housing prices by me are rising so fast it’s unbelieveable! Listed houses sold in 24 hrs or less. Rockford, IL.
Stupid humans don’t make so many children 😔😔🤯🥵😰
انسانهای کم هوش اینقدر تولید مثل نکنید، طبیعت و دیگر موجودات زنده از دست شما عنسانها بجان آمده اند 😔😡🤢
I’m happy. The housing market is a parasitic market that brings nothing to the world but makes normal people suffer with crazy prices; thanks to governments enabling this crap.
PS: the real estate market needs correction or needs to go down (possibly harming economies again). Second time’s a charm i guess.
Is that a ford gt behind you
I can only pray for such a disaster. Homes are way overpriced, they need to be cut in half
Hey, it’s the poor that pay, why worry
where did Graham get that shirt? Graham is getting to rich for his regular t-shirts???? lol
Hello, as someone from Czechia 🇨🇿 I really have to ask. Where do you get all that information? It almost feels like we don’t have such great data open for civilians about the market
What’s up, Graham? It’s Guys here” 😆
Still hasn’t happened. Hasn’t happened for the last 15 years now. And if it does it’s like….well prices went down 20% but prices went up 300% over the last 10 years. So the market is still up 280% despite this so called “crash” that never happens btw.
Protecting your capital is much more important than making money. Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder. ”Missing the train” vs. ”losing your money”. There are a lot of trains, but if your money is gone, it’s over.
@Raul Romero
I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging. who’s the person guiding you?
Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? I’m 39 now and would love to grow my stock portfolio and plan my retirement
@Billie Heeter Ury
The adviser I’m in touch with is ‘Nolan Velden Brent’, He works with Merrill, Pierce, Smith incorporated and interviewed on CNBC Television. You can use something else. for me his strategy works hence my result. he provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
He appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on his name and came across his website; thank you for sharing.
@Raul Romero Thanks for clearing that up, I curiously searched for Nolan Velden Brent on the internet and thankfully, I came across him my goal is to retire in 5years time.
Gram thank u for videos
I think a housing crash will happen because all those people who bought homes over asking price, although it was at a low interest rate, they are over their heads. They have no equity if the housing prices continue to go down, and if for whatever reason they cannot afford the house anymore and it goes into foreclosure because even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I think this will happen to a lot of people especially with the massive layoff predicted for the future and the cost of living rising at a high speed.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
@Philipp Balz You are right! I have diversified my 450K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $830k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.
@Jose luiz Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? been saving for pension since age 18 – company scheme. along the way I hit higher tax, so I added to my company pension with a SIPP (tax benefits) I’m 50 now and would love to grow my finance more aggressively, there are a few cars I still wish to drive, a few mega holidays, etc.
Christine Jane Mclean is the coach that guides me, She has years of financial market experience, you can use something else but for me her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
@Jose luiz thanks for sharing this, I googled the lady you mentioned and after going through her resume, I can tell she’s a pro. I wrote her and I’m waiting on her reply
Vultures. Vultures everywhere.
This is all B-s. There’s no crash, prices will continue to climb as long as families need houses.
Let’s Go Brandon!