Michael O’Sullivan, former CIO of international wealth management at Credit Suisse and author of “The Levelling,” discusses the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis.
Stock market probably won’t bottom for another couple of months, analyst says | Squawk Box Europe
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A slow grind down to find the bottom, past the march lows.
All PE ratios are wrong given there are no earnings.
The worst reccession since 1929 will cost the market 50%+ in the S&P 500.
2050 points, the 1700-1900 range.
I’m not buying anything before S&P 500 has declined at least 50% from the highs.
“All PE ratios are wrong given there are no earnings.”‘
Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet, Visa, Johnson & Johnson, Intel, Mastercard…every of these companies makes no profit and prices of these stocks should fall roughly 50%+. Ok…interesting thoughts…
@Got no name I think you know what I mean. There are companies like airlines that have little to no earnings, they have fallen 50%+. Then there are companies like facebook that will have a massive reduction in ad revenue but will survive with thier low operating costs and high cash reserves hence a lower impact. I was referring the earnings of q2 which will dictate who could survive and who may not (companies in the middle not at the extremes)
Having said all that, the FED has since intervened, back stopping high yield debt and printing like crazy. That could cushion the fall due or even prevent it at this point…its the consequences that are now the issue.
Will the reserve status of the dollar be enough to prevent hyperinflation, will the devaluation and low interest rates essentially rob savers, have compaines essentially been bailed out with the people left high and dry to foot the bill.
We saw the civil unrest in 2008 against the banks, the divide is even greater and foriegn threats remain.
This is how fiat currencies end and I’m not a bitcoin fan.
@Jay
“There are companies like airlines that have little to no earnings, they have fallen 50%+.”
And how much share do they have in the S&P 500? Some companies fall 50%+ and other companies not. There were only 2 times in history where the S&P 500 falls more than 50% of its previous ATH. You should never be so sure.
“This is how fiat currencies end and I’m not a bitcoin fan.”
Will never end, I can tell you that…
@Got no name there is no certainty and it was my opinion based on the information at the time. You have to assume that much of youtube comments are opinion/biased to the view and information of that individual. It starts a topic of debate.
Case in point, you have said the dollar will not fail as a statement of fact (we can debate the definition as it has lost 90%+ of its value since inception).
I will have to assume that it’s your opinion, as in your own words you shouldn’t sound be so certain. Look into the history of all fiat currencies and see what has become.
The fed action is changing my view, too much is unknown and untested, if the markets races to all time highs in the worst economic circumstances of the last 100 years, then there are some serious questions to be asked about the value of the dollar, free market capitalism and ‘fair value’ of anything if this triggers and even bigger assets bubble between the poor and wealthy.
Business bailed, people not.
So British! A rather nasty scenario oh, don’t you think?
Afghanistan Bananastand he’d Irish
couple of months?maybe next year.there’s also an election in November. that can also affect the market.
Not could, Will
Elections don’t effect the Market. Most recent example Trump 2016. Everybody predicted the Market would Crash because of a lack of Confidence in Trump, but the Market doesn’t pay attention to Political Consultant’s or Cable News.
Civil servants , politicians , bankers et al won’t be affected . That’s alright then .
girl is hot af
basic
First my pillow guy
Second we got Jared
Trump fail administration need to resign
100 K body bags
IF the Virus is controlled by distancing or vaccine, the market will shoot through the roof. Why? the market looks months down the road and not a daily approach. You can question the market high in the short term but you can’t question the market eventually reaching new highs, eventually. History shows this .
Agreed, and it’s good not to be greedy. But you’ll have to wait most likely 5+ years for a good return. Based on the bubble the market was in in the first place, it’s got a ways to go. I’m thinking 2050 range is my safe buy territory as I anticipate a long slow decline.
Oh STOP with the DOOM and GLOOM to get more eyeballs to read your articles!
The NEWS MEDIA is blowing the unemployment out of proportion by emphasizing the jobs lost instead of the
4.4% rate of unemployment which is a damn good low number; Economic theory says full employment is 4%!
When Obama took office from, Bush, unemployment was 10%.
Republicans said Obama wouldn’t be able to get unemployment below 8% yet he got it down to 4%!
Obama took office at the start of a recession. If job numbers weren’t better by the time he left office something would be terribly wrong.
Second the government should stay out of the way during a recession.
Spartacus without the government printing pumping money, guess where would the market be right now?
@OutsideWell It would be in the shitter. And maybe it should be rather than devaluing the dollar and incurring astronomical debt.
@Spartacus You want America to fail, you DON’T DESERVE to be in this country.
@mrpmj00 Quite the opposite I think America is the greatest country in the world. What I’m questioning is if socialist measures are the best practice during this time.
Businesses that incurred mountains of debt with no emergency cash flow maybe shouldn’t be bailed out.
Citizens that can’t go a month without an income to pay their bills should maybe learn a tough lesson during this time.
Many of us saved our money for unknown events such as this. Why should we have to help bail out the feckless?
What are u talking about? My portfolio has recovered since 1/1/2020
The market will recover as fast as it dropped
Chino’s Corner wrong
Then you need to go ALL IN! Borrow money to you can buy as much as you can now. Go! Buy! Buy!
@buzzcrushtrendkill my 401k is up almost $10k in the 3 weeks since i started buying the market dip, and is up over $4k since the beginning of the year. sounds like you should spend more time investing, and less time on youtube.
@Eric Ignore that since 1900 there have been 27 bear markets, avg. of 30% peak to bottom, avg of 13 months to reach the bottom and then 27 to go back to the previous peak. You know better. This current crisis will be over in a matter of weeks. All businesses will open right back up, all workers will return to their jobs, no bankruptcies, all back to normal around the world.
Just keep printing more money and put it in the stock market ! Biggest Ponzi scheme ever!!
What wrong with that. Ride the wave while you still can.
cosmo1kramer Let the Feds print $500,000,000,000 and give us all of it to keep everyone afloat! That way we won’t have to ever work again!! How GREAT that wud be!!!!
Ron Krikorian dude chill, do you really want the market to drop? Geez
deedee guzman The mkt is going down in 2 wks like u never seen cuz of the printing of all this illicit money by the crooked FEDS! DONT BE SO STUPID!!!!
Spin it.
Dow Jones will go down to 13500.
The market has already bottomed
brah suuup nah
Please buy now then.
@buzzcrushtrendkill been buying nonstop.
@Retire before your Boss – Free Blueprint on profile ehhhhxcelent
unless there’s another virus that’s worse then corona virus, today’s prices will be at least 17.5% cheaper then this time next year.
Not necessarily. It depends how long the ‘recovery’ will take.
For two months away from the the bottom
1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, the Dow took 7 months to bottom. 2018 crash, took 517 days. Plan accordingly.
The crash will come when stimulus money runs out.. one cannot keep largest economy in stimulus for ever. With no wide spread testing and vaccine available.. we will see another huge sell off soon. Just hang on.
US BANKSTERS LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS & JP MORGAN ARE BUYING THE SP500 THANKS TO THE FED PRINTER. ALL THE US MEDIAS ARE 100% CORRUPTED TO FINANCIAL WORLD. CAPITALISM CREATES SO MUCH INEQUITIES THAT THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL NOT SURVIVE TO ITSELF. EGOISM & DARWINISM ARE NO MORE THE PERSPECTIVES FOR US TO SURVIVE ! WHEN WILL YOU UNDERSTAND THAT ? ALL THE SYSTEM IS UNDER HEAVY SUPPORT. THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, WITH HIGH FREQUENCIES TRADING, ARE NO MORE LINKED TO REAL ECONOMY. IT IS A WIDE MAFIA SPREAD ALL OVER THE WORLD THAT HAS SPEND HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS TO CREATE A NETWORK IN ORDER TO SUSTAIN THEIR WEALTH. A WEALTH THAT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH REAL CREATION BUT BY PLAYING WITH LOW COST BORROWED MONEY. A WORLD OF PREDATION FOR THE MONEY THAT HAS BECOME OUR MASTER AND WE HAVE TO AGREE THAT MOST OF HUMAN ARE SLAVES. LOWER YOU CONSUMPTION AND KEEP CENTERED ON THE REAL IMPORTANT THINGS IN LIFE. YOU DO NOT NEED THE LAST IPHONE (which will spy on you all day long) NEITHER THE LAST TESLA CAR. WAKE UP HUMANITY !!!! The crash will come when stimulus money runs out.. one cannot keep largest economy in stimulus for ever. With no wide spread testing and vaccine available.. we will see another huge sell off soon. Just hang on.
2:56 blatantly incorrect. we had not (and still have not) fallen as much as the dot com bubble. The dot com bubble saw the S&P drop ~50% from its highs, and the nasdaq dropped ~80% from it’s highs… we’ve only dropped about 30-35% from all time highs in all the major indexes at the worst point of this crash (as of 4/14/20). Not to mention, he implied the dot com crash occurred over 16 months, when it took nearly twice as long as that. 16 months into the dot com bubble, the nasdaq still had a 50% dip to go before hitting the bottom. crazy how people can so confidently spout blatantly inaccurate info about such easily researched figures. DYOR